Desenvolvimento de modelo auto-regressivo para previsão em pronto-atendimento

The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

Panorama da agricultura urbana e periurbana: os potenciais de abrangência socioambiental das práticas de AUP

Desde o momento em que o homem passou a aglomerar-se em centros urbanos e formar as cidades, trouxe consigo ainda algumas das práticas que realizava no ambiente rural. Ainda que limitado pela disponibilidade de espaço nas cidades, o hábito de cultivar plantas ornamentais, comestíveis e medicinais, acompanhou o homem, e hoje, mesmo nos maiores centros urbanos pode-se encontrar diversas experiências dessas práticas. O interesse de órgãos públicos, privados e universidades por esse assunto vêm crescendo nas ultimas décadas, nas quais, cada vez mais, percebe-se a urgência de melhorar a qualidade socioambiental nos centros urbanos. A agricultura urbana e periurbana (AUP) tem se mostrado uma ferramenta muito eficaz para lidar com difíceis desafios das grandes cidades, como a gestão dos resíduos sólidos, da escassez de água, da insegurança alimentar e nutricional de populações marginalizadas, da diminuição da biodiversidade, da exclusão social e da má qualidade de vida, entre outras. A AUP mostra-se, além de tudo, muito versátil, podendo ser realizada em diversos contextos ambientais e sociais. Nesse trabalho, compilamos uma série de artigos e textos já publicados sobre esse tema, apresentando os principais conceitos envolvidos. Através de revisão bibliográfica sistematizamos informações teóricas recolhidas e disponibilizando-as de forma sucinta e clara, para que projetos nesse ramo tenham acesso a esse compilado. Inicialmente, agrupamos os referenciais teóricos sobre agricultura urbana a partir do conceito que a define como objeto de estudo. No segundo capítulo abordamos a relação entre as práticas de AUP e a Ecologia, buscando compreender a influência que essas práticas têm no ambiente urbano. No terceiro e último capítulo discutimos o papel que algumas instituições têm para o bom desenvolvimento de iniciativas em AUP. Ao longo dos três capítulos, apresentamos exemplos práticos que ocorrem no Brasil...

Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Desenvolvimento do Atlas da Questão Agrária Brasileira: análise da dinâmica territorial recente da agropecuária brasileira (2006-2012) e da participação da agricultura camponesa na produção do campo (2006)

This monograph is part of the works developed in the Scientific Initiation aimed at updating and improving the Atlas of Brazilian Agrarian Question - AQAB. For pioneering and scope of work-matrix, the objective this first part focused on the development of issues related to agricultural production, being drawn maps with data from the Municipal Agricultural Production-PAM 2012; Municipal Livestock Research-PPM 2012; Production of Vegetable Extraction and Forestry-2012, all analyzed from bibliographic review and joint interpretation of tables and graphs. Pari passu, this topic allowed the development of studies on peasant farms, because they are correlated subjects. Peasant farmers produce large portion of the food served to the population. Its features are its mode of production in the field, the way in which the activities take place within the family, the struggle for their social reproduction and by the earth, the practice of polyculture, preservation of the environment and the genetic diversity of species. The surplus production is sold on the market to meet other family demands unmet by production on their properties. We understand that both terms; Peasant or Farmer, refer to the same subject, but with different interpretations of their way of social reproduction and market relations...

Previsão da capacidade de carga de estacas escavadas em solo arenoso da região de Araquari-SC

In Geotechnical engineering the foundation projects depend on the bearing capacity and the acceptable displacements. One of the possible ways to predict the bearing capacity of foundations is through semi-empirical statistical methods which correlate in-situ tests (SPT and CPT). The piles breaking loads are defined by the interpretation of the load x head displacement curve and the experimental data acquired through the load test. In this work it is studied the behavior of bored piles executed in the Araquari/SC region, comparing the bearing capacity values predicted by the methods DECOURT & QUARESMA MODIFICADO (1996), AOKI & VELLOSO MODIFICADO MONTEIRO (2000), MILITITISKY E ALVES (1985), DECOURT & QUARESMA (1978), MÉTODO DE AOKI & VELLOSO (1975) e PHILOPANNAT (1986), with the results of the load test, evaluating their differences and discussing parameters that have direct effects on the prediction

Manejo de transição para agricultura orgânica, sob cultivo de citros (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck), favorece a diversidade de fungos no solo

Pós-graduação em Ciências Biológicas (Microbiologia Aplicada) - IBRC