2 resultados para Diseases forecasting system

em Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga


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Queueing systems constitute a central tool in modeling and performance analysis. These types of systems are in our everyday life activities, and the theory of queueing systems was developed to provide models for forecasting behaviors of systems subject to random demand. The practical and useful applications of the discrete-time queues make the researchers to con- tinue making an e ort in analyzing this type of models. Thus the present contribution relates to a discrete-time Geo/G/1 queue in which some messages may need a second service time in addition to the rst essential service. In day-to-day life, there are numerous examples of queueing situations in general, for example, in manufacturing processes, telecommunication, home automation, etc, but in this paper a particular application is the use of video surveil- lance with intrusion recognition where all the arriving messages require the main service and only some may require the subsidiary service provided by the server with di erent types of strategies. We carry out a thorough study of the model, deriving analytical results for the stationary distribution. The generating functions of the number of messages in the queue and in the system are obtained. The generating functions of the busy period as well as the sojourn times of a message in the server, the queue and the system are also provided.

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Background: Complex chronic diseases are a challenge for the current configuration of Health services. Case management is a service frequently provided for people with chronic conditions and despite its effectiveness in many outcomes, such as mortality or readmissions, uncertainty remains about the most effective form of team organization, structures, and the nature of the interventions. Many processes and outcomes of case management for people with complex chronic conditions cannot be addressed with the information provided by electronic clinical records. Registries are frequently used to deal with this weakness. The aim of this study was to generate a registry-based information system of patients receiving case management to identify their clinical characteristics, their context of care, events identified during their follow-up, interventions developed by case managers, and services used. Methods and design: The study was divided into three phases, covering the detection of information needs, the design and its implementation in the healthcare system, using literature review and expert consensus methods to select variables that would be included in the registry. Objective: To describe the essential characteristics of the provision of ca re lo people who receive case management (structure, process and outcomes), with special emphasis on those with complex chronic diseases. Study population: Patients from any District of Primary Care, who initiate the utilization of case management services, to avoid information bias that may occur when including subjects who have already been received the service, and whose outcomes and characteristics could not be properly collected. Results: A total of 102 variables representing structure, processes and outcomes of case management were selected for their inclusion in the registry after the consensus phase. Total sample was composed of 427 patients, of which 211 (49.4%) were women and 216 (50.6%) were men. The average functional level (Barthel lndex) was 36.18 (SD 29.02), cognitive function (Pfeiffer) showed an average of 4.37 {SD 6.57), Chat1son Comorbidity lndex, obtained a mean of 3.03 (SD 2.7) and Social Support (Duke lndex) was 34.2 % (SD 17.57). More than half of patients include in the Registry, correspond lo immobilized or transitional care for patients discharged from hospital (66.5 %). The patient's educational level was low or very low (50.4%). Caregivers overstrain (Caregiver stress index), obtained an average value of 6.09% (SD 3.53). Only 1.2 % of patients had declared their advanced directives, 58.6 had not defined the tutelage and the vast majority lived at home 98.8 %. Regarding the major events recorded at RANGE Registry, 25.8 % of the selected patients died in the first three months, 8.2 % suffered a hospital admission at least once time, 2.3%, two times, and 1.2% three times, 7.5% suffered a fall, 8.7% had pressure ulcer, 4.7% had problems with medication, and 3.3 % were institutionalized. Stroke is the more prevalent health problem recorded (25.1%), followed by hypertension (11.1%) and COPD (11.1%). Patients registered by NCMs had as main processes diabetes (16.8%) and dementia (11.3 %). The most frequent nursing diagnoses referred to the self-care deficit in various activities of daily living. Regarding to nursing interventions, described by the Nursing Intervention Classification (NIC), dementia management is the most used intervention, followed by mutual goal setting, caregiver and emotional support. Conclusions: The patient profile who receive case management services is a chronic complex patient with severe dependence, cognitive impairment, normal social support, low educational level, health problems such as stroke, hypertension or COPD, diabetes or dementia, and has an informal caregiver. At the first follow up, mortality was 19.2%, and a discrete rate of readmissions and falls.