Proposta de uma matriz de decisão em energia hidrelétrica com o uso do método multicritério, para formulação de políticas públicas no estado do Paraná

Brazil is internationally acknowledged for its renewable sources, most notably, hydroelectric power plant projects which correspond to 65% of electricity production supply to the National Interconnected System. The main question behind this research is: what are the weights and the relative importance of the variables which have influence on the decision making process for the expansion of hydroelectric generation projects in Parana? The main objective is to propose a multi-criteria decision procedure, in association with water sources options that take into consideration the weight and relative importance of the alternatives having influence on the decision by enterprises in the generation of electricity in the state of Paraná. As far as the approach to the problem is concerned, this research can be classified as having mixed methodologies, applying Content Analysis, Delphi technique and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Following Delphi methodology, a group of 21 was selected for data collection, all of those linked to Paranaense hydroelectricity market. And the main result was the construction of a decision tree in which it was possible to identify the importance and relative weight of the elements associated with the four dimensions of energy. In environmental dimension, the highest relative weight was placed on the loading capacity of Parana system; the economic dimension, the amortization of investment; in social dimension, the generation of direct work places and in institutional dimension, the availability of suitable sources of financing. Policy makers and business managers make their decisions based on specific criteria related to the organization segment, market information, economic and political behavior among other indicators that guide them in dealing with the typical tradeoffs of projects in hydropower area. The results obtained in the decision tree show that the economic bias is still the main factor in making investment decisions. However, environmental impacts on the State loading capacity, income generation, providing opportunities for direct as well as indirect jobs. And at an institutional level, the absence of funding sources show that the perception of experts is focused on other issues beyond the logic behind development per se. The order of priority of variables in this study indicates that in the current environment of uncertainty in the Brazilian economy as many variables must be analyzed and compared in order to optimize the scarce resources available to expand local development in relation to Paranaense water matrix.

Estatística das aplicações de métodos multicritério nas áreas da engenharia de produção

Currently, the decision analysis in production processes involves a level of detail, in which the problem is subdivided to analyze it in terms of different and conflicting points of view. The multi-criteria analysis has been an important tool that helps assertive decisions related to the production process. This process of analysis has been incorporated into various areas of production engineering, by applying multi-criteria methods in solving the problems of the productive sector. This research presents a statistical study on the use of multi-criteria methods in the areas of Production Engineering, where 935 papers were filtered from 20.663 publications in scientific journals, considering a level of the publication quality based on the impact factor published by the JCR between 2010 and 2015. In this work, the descriptive statistics is used to represent some information and statistical analysis on the volume of applications methods. Relevant results were found with respect to the "amount of advanced methods that are being applied and in which areas related to Production Engineering." This information may provide support to researchers when preparing a multi-criteria application, whereupon it will be possible to check in which issues and how often the other authors have used multi-criteria methods.