8 resultados para incertezas

em Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte


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PEDRO, Edilson da Silva. Estratégias para a organização da pesquisa em cana-de-açúcar: uma análise de governança em sistemas de inovação. 2008. 226f. Tese (Doutorado em Política Científica e Tecnológica) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, 2008.

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SOUZA, Anderson A.S. ; MEDEIROS, Adelardo A. D. ; GONÇALVES, Luiz Marcos G. . Algorítmo de mapeamento usando modelagem probabilística. In: SIMPOSIO BRASILEIRO DE AUTOMAÇÃO INTELIGENTE, 2007, Natal. Anais... Natal, 2007.

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A tese trata de dois construtos sócio-históricos Administração e Administrador em face do capitalismo em sua fase flexível. Considerando as mudanças do capitalismo, o texto estabelece como objeto de estudo as concepções de Administração e Administrador, para o campo administrativo, na contemporaneidade. A tese é suportada por uma pesquisa de campo cujo objetivo foi compreender criticamente as concepções do campo administrativo sobre a Administração e o Administrador, em tempos de capitalismo flexível. Epistemologicamente, a pesquisa foi conduzida a partir da perspectiva crítica frankfurtiana, fundamentada em três pares categóricos dialéticos: (i) história versus naturalização; (ii) práxis social versus sistema; e (iii) alienação versus emancipação; privilegiando o pensamento crítico vinculado à primeira geração da Escola de Frankfurt. A literatura prevalente da área de Administração foi revisada mediada pelas duas questões ontológicas que suportam a tese: O que é Administração? e O que é Administrador? para autores como Taylor, Fayol, Drucker, Ohno, Deming, Champy e Mintzberg. Metodologicamente, foi realizada uma pesquisa integralmente qualitativa, com uso de três tipos de entrevistas: (i) entrevista narrativa com história de vida; (ii) entrevista com uso de elementos-estímulo; e (iii) entrevista narrativa ficcional. Para compreensão das narrativas, foi utilizada a técnica de análise hermenêutico-dialética. Os resultados indicam o predomínio da concepção pragmática-instrumental, no tocante à Administração, pela qual ela continua a ser pensada e discursada como uma ação tecnológica e teleológica, que utiliza saberes múltiplos e aprendizagens cambiantes como meios para alcance das finalidades do contexto organizacional mutante. Com relação ao Administrador, há a emergência da concepção estética para apresentá-lo, quando vinculado às organizações. Por esta concepção, há a migração do histórico estereótipo do Administrador controlador e vigilante para a representação do Administrador como um profissional performático. O segundo resultado, que se apresenta como o mais relevante em relação ao Administrador, é o da fuga da profissão. A partir dos pares categóricos dialéticos, esta tese propõe algumas sínteses provisórias críticas: (i) história-naturalização: os sujeitos tomam como naturais a organização empresarial e suas demandas, naturalizando as recentes mudanças que, entre outras coisas, reduzem os postos gerenciais; (ii) práxis social-sistema: pela concepção pragmática-instrumental, as experiências dos Administradores são concebidas a partir do confinamento funcionalista em uma organização-sistema; (iii) emancipação-alienação: tanto a forma naturalizada com que especificam as organizações e sua Administração quanto a práxis interrompida velada em uma experiência reificada mostram-se como fenômenos intrinsecamente e subjetivamente alienantes e contraemancipatórios. Por outro lado, através do movimento de fuga da profissão, os entrevistados parecem (re)significar o silêncio fundador da alienação associada à condição de Administrador: a de pensar como capital, e não se pensar como trabalho. Finalmente, o texto propõe que as possibilidades de emancipação deste profissional residem na tomada de consciência de sua condição como integrante da classe trabalhadora, mesmo em tempos de riscos e incertezas. Assumindo-se como trabalhador, o Administrador poderá lutar pelo seu trabalho, repensando-o em novos termos, em que as dimensões pragmáticas-instrumentais que envolvem sua profissão possam ser dosadas e sempre mediadas por conteúdos substantivos e emancipatórios

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Given the uncertainties of the environment in today's world, strategic planning is again discussed as an important tool to position the organization in future likely. To address this a more dynamic and less linear, trying to adapt the multiple realities, the method of scenarios can be one of the strategies to anticipate future designs. In the public sphere, an efficient implementation of human resources and financial managers require a new approach to the formulation of strategies. Tourism, in turn, presents itself as an important segment of the national economy shaped up as a major source of funds for the formation of the Gross Domestic Product - GDP - of states and municipalities. This study aims to know the guidelines and perspectives of municipal planning of tourism in the city of Natal/RN from the case by the representatives of the sector. The survey was developed based on a qualitative, exploratory, based on the case in the Secretaria Municipal de Turismo e Desenvolvimento Econômico - SETURDE. The results express that the body goes through a time of changes in its organizational structure and in defining its role with the local tourism. The national plan for tourism and the choice of Christmas as the host city for the World Cup in 2014 have stimulated interest in developing a formal strategic planning in the organization. However, when it comes to more complex tools, such as the method of future scenarios, the technical know its definition and importance for future actions. The results presented support the conclusion that the actions are designed intuitively and without complying with the scientific methods developed for this purpose, as the method of strategic scenarios. However, the evidence beginning to emerge from the plans and documents issued by the federal government, as well as the Secretary's own initiative, direct the actions of the body to coordinate and act as a fulcrum for local action to the increase in tourism

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The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

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Natural ventilation is an efficient bioclimatic strategy, one that provides thermal comfort, healthful and cooling to the edification. However, the disregard for quality environment, the uncertainties involved in the phenomenon and the popularization of artificial climate systems are held as an excuse for those who neglect the benefits of passive cooling. The unfamiliarity with the concept may be lessened if ventilation is observed in every step of the project, especially in the initial phase in which decisions bear a great impact in the construction process. The tools available in order to quantify the impact of projected decisions consist basically of the renovation rate calculations or computer simulations of fluids, commonly dubbed CFD, which stands for Computational Fluid Dynamics , both somewhat apart from the project s execution and unable to adapt for use in parametric studies. Thus, we chose to verify, through computer simulation, the representativeness of the results with a method of simplified air reconditioning rate calculation, as well as making it more compatible with the questions relevant to the first phases of the project s process. The case object consists of a model resulting from the recommendations of the Código de Obras de Natal/ RN, customized according to the NBR 15220. The study has shown the complexity in aggregating a CFD tool to the process and the need for a method capable of generating data at the compatible rate to the flow of ideas and are discarded during the project s development. At the end of our study, we discuss the necessary concessions for the realization of simulations, the applicability and the limitations of both the tools used and the method adopted, as well as the representativeness of the results obtained

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Natural air ventilation is the most import passive strategy to provide thermal comfort in hot and humid climates and a significant low energy strategy. However, the natural ventilated building requires more attention with the architectural design than a conventional building with air conditioning systems, and the results are less reliable. Therefore, this thesis focuses on softwares and methods to predict the natural ventilation performance from the point of view of the architect, with limited resource and knowledge of fluid mechanics. A typical prefabricated building was modelled due to its simplified geometry, low cost and occurrence at the local campus. Firstly, the study emphasized the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, to simulate the air flow outside and inside the building. A series of approaches were developed to make the simulations possible, compromising the results fidelity. Secondly, the results of CFD simulations were used as the input of an energy tool, to simulate the thermal performance under different rates of air renew. Thirdly, the results of temperature were assessed in terms of thermal comfort. Complementary simulations were carried out to detail the analyses. The results show the potentialities of these tools. However the discussions concerning the simplifications of the approaches, the limitations of the tools and the level of knowledge of the average architect are the major contribution of this study

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This master thesis aims to assess the influence of the design decisions on the energy building performance of hotels. The research is based on the integration of field study and computer simulation. Firstly, a detailed field study is carried out to identify the characteristics of hotels in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte. The items assessed are occupancies, light and equipment densities, types of air conditioning, total and monthly energy consumption, among others. A second and more comprehensive field study is carried out to identify the range of occurrence of architectural variables, with a larger number of buildings. A base case is modelled in VisualDOE, based on the first field study. Then, a first set of simulations are run to explore the sensitivity of the variables on the energy consumption. The results analyses were the base of a second set of simulations, which combined the most influential variables. The results of 384 models were assessed, and the impacts of design decisions were quantified. The study discusses tendencies and recommendations, as well as the methods advantages and disadvantages