Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Maturidade de escritório de gerenciamento de projetos: o caso do Ministério Público do Rio Grande do Norte

The research aimed to evaluate the level of maturity of the project management office of the Public Ministry of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, on the model PMO Maturity Cube. It was based on a theoretical framework that includes project management, project management office and maturity of the project management office. The research was classified as to the purpose as exploratory and descriptive. According to the methods used was a case study, and how to approach is qualitative and quantitative. The research unit was the prosecutor of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, by two guys who represent all of the participants in the project management office of the institution. These subjects were chosen because they act with the office since the foundation of the same, having the knowledge necessary to deepen the research required, and experience with projects and work experience in the area. Data were collected through an adaptation of the evaluation form for the amplitude corporate developed and presented to the scientific environment for Pinto, Cota and Levin (2010). The results revealed that the level of maturity in the current strategic approach is 77%, and 97% desired; tactical approach in current is 66% and 97% desired, and the current operational approach is 78%, and 100% desired. He pointed out that several factors influence the level of maturity of the project management office of the Public Prosecutor and the recurrent related to information technology, regarding the storage and sharing of information. Concluded that the level of maturity of the project management office of the Public Ministry of the State of Rio Grande do Norte is advanced