Construção das capacidades organizacionais de tecnologia da informação no contexto dos sistemas institucionais integrados de gestão da UFRN

The IT capability is a organizational ability to perform activities of this role more effectively and an important mechanism in creating value. Its building process (stages of creation and development) occurs through management initiatives for improvement in the performance of their activities, using human resources and IT assets complementary responsible for the evolution of their organizational routines. This research deals with the IT capabilities related to SIG (integrated institutional management systems), built and deployed in UFRN (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte) to realization and control of administrative, academic and human resources activities. Since 2009, through cooperative agreements with federal and educational institutions of direct administration, UFRN has supported the implementation of these systems, currently involving more than 30 institutions. The present study aims to understand how IT capabilities, relevant in the design, implementation and dissemination of SIG, were built over time. This is a single case study of qualitative and longitudinal nature, performed by capturing, coding and analysis from secondary data and from semi-structured interviews conducted primarily with members of Superintenência de Informática, organizational unit responsible for SIG systems in UFRN. As a result, the technical, of internal relationship and external cooperation capabilities were identified as relevant in the successful trajectory of SIG systems, which have evolved in different ways. The technical capacity, initiated in 2004, toured the stages of creation and development until it reached the stage of stability in 2013, due to technological limits. Regarding the internal relationship capability, begun in 2006, it toured the stages of creation and development, having extended its scope of activities in 2009, being in development since then. Unlike the standard life cycle observed in the literature, the external cooperation capability was initiated by an intensity of initiatives and developments in the routines in 2009, which were decreasing to cease in 2013 in order to stabilize the technological infrastructure already created for cooperative institutions. It was still identified the start of cooperation in 2009 as an important event selection, responsible for changing or creating trajectories of evolution in all three capacities. The most frequent improvements initiatives were of organizational nature and the internal planning activity has been transformed over the routines of the three capabilities. Important resources and complementary assets have been identified as important for the realization of initiatives, such as human resources technical knowledge to the technical capabilities and external cooperation, and business knowledge, for all of them, as well as IT assets: the iproject application for control of development processes, and the document repository wiki. All these resources and complementary assets grew along the capacities, demonstrating its strategic value to SINFO/UFRN

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Sistemas de gerenciamento de bibliotecas: riscos decorrentes do processo de migração de dados

This work aims to analyze risks related to information technology (IT) in procedures related to data migration. This is done considering ALEPH, Integrated Libray System (ILS) that migrated data to the Library Module present in the software called Sistema Integrado de Gestão de Atividades Acadêmicas (SIGAA) at the Zila Mamede Central Library at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) in Natal/Brazil. The methodological procedure used was of a qualitative exploratory research with the realization of case study at the referred library in order to better understand this phenomenon. Data collection was able once there was use of a semi-structured interview that was applied with (11) subjects that are employed at the library as well as in the Technology Superintendence at UFRN. In order to examine data Content analysis as well as thematic review process was performed. After data migration the results of the interview were then linked to both analysis units and their system register with category correspondence. The main risks detected were: data destruction; data loss; data bank communication failure; user response delay; data inconsistency and duplicity. These elements point out implication and generate disorders that affect external and internal system users and lead to stress, work duplicity and hassles. Thus, some measures were taken related to risk management such as adequate planning, central management support, and pilot test simulations. For the advantages it has reduced of: risk, occurrence of problems and possible unforeseen costs, and allows achieving organizational objectives, among other. It is inferred therefore that the risks present in data bank conversion in libraries exist and some are predictable, however, it is seen that librarians do not know or ignore and are not very worried in the identification risks in data bank conversion, their acknowledge would minimize or even extinguish them. Another important aspect to consider is the existence of few empirical research that deal specifically with this subject and thus presenting the new of new approaches in order to promote better understanding of the matter in the corporate environment of the information units