Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Diversidade de macroalgas marinhas bentônicas dos recifes de Maracajaú, área de preservação ambiental dos recifes de corais, Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

Despite the importance of coral reefs to humanity, these environments have been threatened throughout the world. Several factors contribute to the degradation of these ecosystems. The Maracajaú Reef Complex, in Rio Grande do Norte state is part of the Coral Reefs Environment Preservation Area in northeastern Brazil. This area has been receiving an increasing influx of tourism and the integrity of the local reefs is a matter of concern. In this study, the reef macroalgae communities were studied and compared within two areas distinguished by the presence or absence of tourism activities. Two sample sites were chosen: the first one, where diving activities are intense; and the other, where these practices do not occur. Samples were collected at both sites within a quadrate of 625 cm2 of area randomly thrown 5 times along a 10 meters transect line. Richness, Shannon-Hill diversity and Simpson dominance indices were determined based on biomass data. Similarity between sites was analyzed with Bray-Curtis similarity and distance index. Fifty-eight macroalgae species were observed, including 7 Chlorophyta, 13 Phaeophyta and 38 Rhodophyta. In the non-disturbed site, 49 species were found, while at the disturbed site, there were 42 species. Dictyotaceae and Corallinaceae were the most representative families at the non-disturbed site, and Rhodomelaceae and Dictyotaceae at the disturbed site. The non-disturbed site presented a higher biomass and the greatest richness and diversity indices. In the disturbed site the dominance index was greater and Caulerpa racemosa was the dominant species. The dendogram based on similarity index showed two major clusters, and an isolated element at the center that corresponds to a sample from the disturbed site. In the first cluster, samples from the non-impacted site were predominant and fleshy brown algae were more conspicuous. The second cluster was composed primarily of samples from the impacted site, where C. racemosa and red filamentous and erect calcareous algae associations (turf forming) were observed covering large extensions. These associations are represented by groups of algae adapted to environments where disturbances are frequent. They can grow rapidly on substrate where benthic community was removed and do not allow the establishment of other species. The results of the present study show that tourism activity is an impacting factor that has been causing shifts in macroalgae communities in the Maracajaú Reef Complex

Características limnológicas e estrutura trófica das comunidades de peixes de alguns lagos naturais e artificiais do Rio Grande do Norte

Artificial lakes must differ from natural lakes in important structural and functional aspects that need to be understood so that these ecosystems can be properly managed. The aim of this work was to test the hypothesis that the artificial lakes (impoundments) in the semi-arid region of the Rio Grande do Norte State are more eutrophic and turbid and have different trophic structure when compared to the natural coastal lakes that occur in the humid eastern coast of the State. To test this hypothesis, 10 natural lakes and 8 artificial lakes with about 100 ha were sampled between September and November 2005 for the determination of some limnological variables and the abundance of the main fish species, which were grouped in three trophic guilds: facultative piscivores, facultative planktivores and omnivores. The results show that the artificial lakes had significantly higher concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chlorophyll a , total and volatile suspended solids than the natural lakes. Results also show that the values of pH, total alkalinity, electric conductivity, turbidity as well as the coefficient of vertical attenuation of light were significantly higher in the artificial lakes than in the natural lakes. In the artificial lakes, the abundance of facultative planktivores was significantly higher, while the abundance of facultative piscivores significantly lower than in the natural lakes. There was no significant difference in the abundance of omnivorous fish between the two types of lakes. These results suggest that the increase in turbidity together with the other changes in the water quality of the artificial lakes, modifies the trophic structure of the fish communities reducing the importance of piscivores and the length of the food chains

O cinema, o jogo e a cultura

práticas artificiais, que incluem a experiência midiática, numa negociação/conciliação permanente entre a cultura objetiva (social) e a subjetiva (do indivíduo). A mediação cotidiana e fundamental é a comunicação do real com o imaginário. Para além do ato ou efeito de mediar, de estar entre, as mediações são a articulação entre práticas de comunicação e movimentos sociais; são as modalidades da comunicação dentro das quais se inserem os meios e que estão ligadas ao sensorium dos modos de percepção e da experiência social. O cinema reflete esse quadro como produto de uma experiência coletiva de fascínio mágico, um lugar de participação afetiva. Comporta elementos do jogo não competitivo e também apresenta elementos do sagrado pela alimentação e divulgação de mitos, pela ritualização convertida em periodicidade e pelo extraordinário evocado em êxtase profano.

Análise de métodos para aplicação de ventilação natural em projetos de edificações em Natal-RN

Natural ventilation is an efficient bioclimatic strategy, one that provides thermal comfort, healthful and cooling to the edification. However, the disregard for quality environment, the uncertainties involved in the phenomenon and the popularization of artificial climate systems are held as an excuse for those who neglect the benefits of passive cooling. The unfamiliarity with the concept may be lessened if ventilation is observed in every step of the project, especially in the initial phase in which decisions bear a great impact in the construction process. The tools available in order to quantify the impact of projected decisions consist basically of the renovation rate calculations or computer simulations of fluids, commonly dubbed CFD, which stands for Computational Fluid Dynamics , both somewhat apart from the project s execution and unable to adapt for use in parametric studies. Thus, we chose to verify, through computer simulation, the representativeness of the results with a method of simplified air reconditioning rate calculation, as well as making it more compatible with the questions relevant to the first phases of the project s process. The case object consists of a model resulting from the recommendations of the Código de Obras de Natal/ RN, customized according to the NBR 15220. The study has shown the complexity in aggregating a CFD tool to the process and the need for a method capable of generating data at the compatible rate to the flow of ideas and are discarded during the project s development. At the end of our study, we discuss the necessary concessions for the realization of simulations, the applicability and the limitations of both the tools used and the method adopted, as well as the representativeness of the results obtained

Simulação computacional como ferramenta de auxílio ao projeto: aplicação em edifícios naturalmente ventilados no clima de Natal/RN

Natural air ventilation is the most import passive strategy to provide thermal comfort in hot and humid climates and a significant low energy strategy. However, the natural ventilated building requires more attention with the architectural design than a conventional building with air conditioning systems, and the results are less reliable. Therefore, this thesis focuses on softwares and methods to predict the natural ventilation performance from the point of view of the architect, with limited resource and knowledge of fluid mechanics. A typical prefabricated building was modelled due to its simplified geometry, low cost and occurrence at the local campus. Firstly, the study emphasized the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, to simulate the air flow outside and inside the building. A series of approaches were developed to make the simulations possible, compromising the results fidelity. Secondly, the results of CFD simulations were used as the input of an energy tool, to simulate the thermal performance under different rates of air renew. Thirdly, the results of temperature were assessed in terms of thermal comfort. Complementary simulations were carried out to detail the analyses. The results show the potentialities of these tools. However the discussions concerning the simplifications of the approaches, the limitations of the tools and the level of knowledge of the average architect are the major contribution of this study

Distribuição e abundância da malacofauna epibentônica no Parracho de Maracajaú, RN, Brasil

The mollusks present a great taxon variety and life habits in coral reefs being good environmental indicators. It is important to know the distribution pattern of the mollusks and the processes that influence it, so that disturbances in sea ecosystems could be monitored. The present study aims to accomplish the inventory and distribution of epibenthic mollusks in the Parracho of Maracajaú. 23 sites in different habitats of the Parracho were settled: 11 in the reef habitat, 3 in the sandy bottom and 9 in the seagrass bed. Qualitative and quantitative samplings have been done through snorkeling and scuba diving. Three band transects (10m²) were sampled in each site and the data were obtained to each m² of the transect, where the species were counted and the environmental variables (rugosity and recovery of the substratum) were valued. The data were submitted to multivariate analyses in order to find possible distribution patterns that could be associated to the substratum variables. The diversity indexes were calculated for each reef sites and compared with each other. A number of 46 species were registered. The reef habit at should to be the richnest area while the sandy bottom was poorest one. In the reef habitat, the mollusks were associated to rugosity and recovering of frondose algae and zoanthids, while for the seagrass bed, the animals exhibited a richness variation associated to the muddy and sandy sediment. There were found 3 species economically explored, what requires an appropriate management for the maintenance and conservation of the area resources in a sustainable way

Projeto raia de fogo: aspectos populacionais da raia de fogo (Dasyatis marianae Gomes, Rosa & Gadig, 2000) e pesca de elasmobrânquios no complexo recifal do Parracho de Maracajaú

The species Dasyatis marianae inhabits coastal areas associated with coral reefs, considered endemic to the northeast of Brazil, occurring from the State of Maranhão to the south of Bahia. Specimens of this species are commonly sighted by divers and fishermen in the area of Maracajaú reefs, a complex reef that is part of the Environmental Protection Area of Coral Reefs (EPACR), which was developed in this study about the ecology and biology of the D. marianae, in order to characterize aspects of population structure in the area of the reef complex of Parracho de Maracajaú. We analyzed 120 specimens caught by artisanal fishing site of the size, weight, sex, stage of maturity and stomach contents. Most subjects were adult males (1.7:1) and was more abundant for rays with lengths between 25 and 29cm of LD, where females reach larger sizes, a feature common to other rays. The largest specimens were captured in the area of seagrass, which is preferred for the species. The distribution of species in the area showed an ontogenetic and sexual segregation, where the youthful occur near the beach, which is a likely area for nursery and growth of the adult females prevail in the seagrass, which apparently has a high prey availability, and Adult males are more distant, a higher proportion occurring in outlying areas, suggesting a habit more exploratory than the females. The evaluation of the reproductive system indicated 3 reproductive cycles per year, one young per pregnancy, and showed that the mature males were smaller than females. The cubs of D. marianae size at birth 12 to 15cm LD. As for diet, the species was characterized as carnivorous crustacean specialist. The performance of visual censuses in different localities allowed to evaluate the density of D. marianae in different environments of the complex. The species occurs in greater numbers in seagrass, environment very important for the conservation of the species. 100 individuals of D. marianae marked in reef complex area enrolled in a recapture rate of 3%. Some behavioral aspects were evaluated, as diurnal pattern of activity, interaction with cleaning and fish Pomacanthus paru followers as Lutjanus analis and Carangoides bartholomaei. Overall, much of the information obtained should be used for management of the species