Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

O Caráter Tectônico do Moderno Brasileiro: Bernardes e Campello na Paraíba (1970-1980)

This study aims to analyze the tectonic character of the works of Sergio Bernardes and Glauco Campello architects, built in Paraiba, between the turn of the decade in 1970 and early 1980 in order to bring reflections about the poetics of construction s importance in the formal structure of the architecture, contributing to the debate about the specificitiesand peculiarities of modern architecture produced in Brazil. The research, using the strategies of the case study, startsfromthe review on the use of "tectonic" by Kenneth Frampton and other scholars of the term, to base the concept and set the analytical parameters of the tectonics. Then it proceeds to the insertion of buildings in the cultural and socio-political Brazilian s context in the periodproposed forstudy, in sequence, analyzesthe works of each architect. The study confirms that the expressive power of Brazilian heroic modern architecture, emphasizing the poetics of construction, sediments a tectonic culture that resonates in the following generations