Avaliação da fidedignidade dos ensaios de esteróides fecais realizados no Laboratório de Medidas Hormonais do Departamento de Fisiologia da UFRN

NASCIMENTO, H. G. ; FERNANDES, L. C. ; SOUSA, M. B. C. . Avaliação da fidedignidade dos ensaios de esteróides fecais realizados no Laboratório de Medidas Hormonais do Departamento de Fisiologia da UFRN. Publica , v. 2, p. 39-48, 2006.

Acidentes por quedas em um grupo específico de idosos

Este estudo objetivou conhecer a incidência do evento queda e identificar a presença de seus principais fatores de risco. Estudo exploratório, realizado de março a novembro/2009, com aplicação de um formulário sobre quedas em um grupo de idosos. Os dados foram analisados por cálculo de frequências, média e desvio-padrão. Participaram 62 idosos, 41,9% relataram queda nos últimos seis meses, a maioria mulheres. Identificou-se ocorrência de agravos concomitantes: visão regular, audição boa, polifarmácia, IMC normal, forte força de preensão palmar e condições dos pés adequadas. Na maioria dos que caiu, o desequilíbrio foi apontado como principal motivo. A queda ocorreu mais no período da manhã, em local de piso áspero e seco, sem degraus, rampas ou tapetes, iluminação adequada e o tipo de calçado mais utilizado foi chinelo de borracha. Percebe-se a alta ocorrência das quedas na população idosa, fato que fundamenta a necessidade de avaliação das condições de risco envolvidas

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Abundância e distribuição sazonal de espécies autóctones de camarões peneídeos no canal de abastecimento do sistema primar de aquicultura orgânica (Laguna de Guaraíras, Tibau do Sul, Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil)

Guaraíras lagoon, located in Tibau do Sul in the eastern littoral of Rio Grande do Norte (Brazil), presents a permanent connection to the sea, which guarantees the occurrence of a rich biodiversity, which includes the autochthonous shrimp species Litopenaeus schmitti, Farfantepenaeus subtilis and Farfantepenaeus brasiliensis. In spite of being subject to a strong human intervention in the last decade, mainly related to the installation of shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) farms, the lagoon is still scarcely studied. The present study aims at characterizing the populations of the three autochthonous penaeid shrimp species inhabiting Guaraíras, taking into consideration their abundance and seasonal distribution in the inflow channel of Primar System of Organic Aquaculture (Tibau do Sul, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil). Twelve monthly samples were carried out from May 2005 to April 2006 with the aid of a circular cast net in the inflow channel, which is daily supplied with water from Guaraíras. Sampling months were grouped in trimesters according to the total pluviosity, thus comprising four trimesters. Water salinity was monitored twice a week and temperature values registered on a daily basis at noon, during the study period. The daily pluviosity data from the municipality of Tibau do Sul were supplied by Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária do Rio Grande do Norte (EMPARN). Collected shrimp were identified, weighted, measured and sexed. L. schmitti specimens (0.2 g to 17.8 g) were distributed in 1.3 g weight classes intervals. From the eighth sampling month (December 2005) onwards, males were classified into three categories, in accordance with the development of their petasm: (a) rudimentary petasm, (b) partially formed petasm, and (c) completely formed petasm. Among the ecological variables, rainfall showed the greatest dispersion (s.d.=187.74Rainfall and abundance of L. schmitti were negatively correlated (r = -0.85) whereas its abundance and water salinity were positively correlated (r = 0.63). Among 1,144 collected individuals, 1,127 were L. schmitti, 13 were F. subtilis and 4 were F. brasiliensis, which corresponded to 98.51%, 1.14% and 0.35% of the total of collected individuals. L. schmitti occurred in 100 % of all samples. Differently, the presence of F. subtilis and F. brasiliensis was restricted to 33% and 17% of the collected samples, respectively. The present study confirmed the occurrence of L. schmitti, F. brasiliensis and F. subtilis in Guaraíras. However, this lagoon seems to be primarily inhabited by juvenile Litopenaeus schmitti. The population of L. schmitti analysed showed a seasonal pattern of distribution. In general, in the months of high salinity and absence of rain, the number of individuals was higher than in the wet months. Further studies on the reproductive biology and ecology of L. schmitti, F. brasiliensis and F. subtilis may elucidate questions referring to the abundance, period, and phase of occurrence of these shrimp genera in Guaraíras. Finally, the risks associated to the establishment of L. vannamei in the lagoon provide a novel outlet for studies in this biotope