Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Análise do comportamento e crescimento do camarão branco Litopenaeus vannamei (Boone, 1931) em diferentes substratos inconsolidados

The aim of this study was to test the sediment preference of L. vannamei shrimp. It was observed shrimp visit frequency, swimming and burying behaviour at different sediment compositions for 24h. Juvenile (0.93 ± 0.29g) and sub-adult shrimps (10.0 ± 1.18g) were obtained from the aquaculture station at Universidade Federal Rural do Semi-Árido UFERSA, and held in a plastic tank (water volume 500 L) supplied with aerated water and kept at constant temperature, pH, and salinity. Shrimp was fed by commercial shrimp dry food. The experimental substrates were composed by A: medium sand + thick sand + very thick sand + gravel; B: very fine sand + fine sand; and C: silt + clay. Thus, six different substrate combinations were tested: A, B, C, A+B, A+C, B+C. To test preference, it was used a cylindrical tank (40 l) divided into six differently substrate compartments. A single shrimp was introduced each tank and the frequency at which this shrimp visited each compartment was recorded over a 24h study period. It was tested 54 shrimp (18 sub-adult males, 18 subadult females and 18 juveniles). For each trial, sediment and water were changed to avoid pheromones and residues influence. Shrimp were weighted and sub-adults were divided by sex: males present petasma and females present thelycum. Data were collected on the experimental day at 19:30; 20:30; 00:30; 1:30; 05:30; 06:30; 13:30 and 14:30 h. At each time point, shrimp were observed for 20-min periods, in which we noted down which compartment the shrimp was occupying at 2-min intervals. Thus, for each period we had eleven observations (88 observations per day). For observations at night, it was used dim red light that did not affect shrimp behaviour. At each 20-min period, it was observed visit frequency in each substrate, if shrimp was burred or not or if it was swimming. There was not significant difference between light and dark burry activity for females. Swimming activity was significantly higher at night, mainly at 00:30 and 01:30 h. All L. vannamei shrimp showed preference for sediment B. This animal presents cyclic activity, spends the day light period buried and swims at night

Estilo de vida e vulnerabilidade social dos adolescentes no Bairro de Felipe Camarão, Natal/RN, 2005

Este estudo descreve o estilo de vida e vulnerabilidade dos adolescentes do bairro Felipe Camarão em Natal-RN, a fim de compreender seus comportamentos, conforme vulnerabilidades identificadas. Foram aplicados 145 questionários semi-estruturados entre os adolescentes de 12 a 18 anos, no período de janeiro, a abril de 2005. O estilo de vida descrito, conforme os dados colhidos, informa que 92,4% sabem da importância de se alimentar bem, 86,9% têm sono preservado; 76,5% têm boa relação com seus pais. Porém, 86,9% afirmaram não haver área de lazer/diversão no bairro, enquanto os 31,0% não responderam sobre higiene corporal; 41,4% consomem drogas lícitas (maioria álcool), enquanto 37,9%, as ilícitas (maioria cola); 51,7% dizem que não conversam sobre sexo, enquanto 30,3% conversam com suas mães; 38,0% estão sexualmente ativos, iniciados entre 13 a 16 anos. Os comportamentos de alguns adolescentes estudados indicam um estilo de vida saudável, enquanto outros demonstram justamente o contrário, através de práticas como: pouca participação no lazer, por falta de opção; consumo de drogas lícitas e ilícitas; a falta de diálogo com os pais sobre sexo; relacionamento sexual precoce, somados às condições econômicas e sociais desfavorecidas que os expõem à adoção de um estilo de vida que implica em vulnerabilidade

A Geração de inovação na carcinicultura do RN: Uma análise a partir da imersão social

This dissertation examines the organizational innovation as a nonlinear process, which occurs in a social and political context and, therefore, socially immersed. Examines the case of shrimp in the state of RN, starting from the following problem: although the norteriograndense shrimp occupies the largest producer of farmed shrimp from Brazil, has a series of bottlenecks concerning the generation of industry innovation, concerning the social relationships and policies between the various actors in the network, whether private or public, and its consequences in terms of opportunity and limits generated for the innovative dynamics. The objective of the research is to understand how the social embeddedness of political actors affects norteriograndense shrimp within the context of structural relations, the industry generation of innovation, throughout its technological trajectory . The approach of social embeddedness balances atomised perspectives, undersocialized and oversocialized, of economic action, considering both the human capacity to act as sources of constraint, whose mechanisms are analyzed the structural and political. In methodological terms this is a case study, analyzed from the research literature, documentary and experimental. Primary data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analyzed in depth by the technique of content analysis. Was adopted a longitudinal approach, seeking to understand the phenomenon from the perspective of the subjects, describing it in an inductive process of investigation. After characterizing the sector and defining their technological trajectory, the analysis of the results followed its four stages: (1) Introduction of Technology: 1973-1980, (2) Intensification of Research: 1981-1991, (3) Technological Adaptation, 1992 -2003, (4) Technological Crisis: 2004-2009. A cross-sectional analysis along the evolutionary trajectory revealed the character of structural changes and policies over time, and implications on the generating process of innovation. Note that, the technological limit to which the sector reached requires changes in technology standards, but is more likely that the potiguar shrimp is entering a new phase of his career in technology rather than a new technological paradigm

Tributos indiretos na cadeia produtiva do camarão

The state of Rio Grande do Norte counts with a relevant potential in the shrimp farming supply chain. In the larviculture step the state responds for more than half of the national production. In the farming step it is the second largest producer. In the industrial step, its industries have almost 40% of the shrimp processing capacity of the northeast of Brazil. However, this country has the highest tax rate comparing with the main shrimp producer countries. Considering the influence of taxes in the competition among companies, the main goal of this research is to analyze the impact of indirect taxes in the above steps of the supply chain. To achieve it, it will be used the data of the 2011 Census of the Shrimp Farming and it will be applied the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to identify the market form of those steps. In order to contribute with the characterization of the supply chain, CEO´s of farms and industries will be interviewed. The price-elasticity of the shrimp larvae, the in natura shrimp and the processed shrimp will be analyzed in order to verify the possibility that each one of those three steps has to pass-through the onus of the end of benefit over the ICMS. The data analysis shows that the larviculture step functions as a duopoly and, facing the end of that benefit, it will be able to pass-through most its onus to the farming step. On the other hand, this step functions similar to a perfect competing market, which diminishes its capacity to pass-through that onus to the processing step. This step operates as oligopoly with a lower concentration than the larviculture step but, due to the fact that it faces an oligopsony, it will end up assuming most of that onus, which will cause a decrease in the amount of processed shrimp. It is concluded that the end of that benefit would impact negatively, in this state, the supply chain at all, but mainly the farming and the industrial steps