O jogo que não foi jogado

MORAIS JUNIOR, Agamenon Clemente de. O jogo que não foi jogado. In: ENCONTRO REGIONAL DA ABEM NORDESTE, 7., Joao Pessoa, PB, 2008. Anais ... Joao Pessoa, PB, 2008.

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Da promessa à realidade: a cidade potiguar do século XIX, a partir do olhar da elite

The purpose of this research is to apprehend the perception that the ruling elite, especially the Presidents of the province of Rio Grande do Norte/Brazil, had about the potiguar city, that is, the urban localities existing in the province along the 19th century. By interweaving political, administrative, socioeconomic and spatial aspects, the study of this perception involves two distinct moments, which are also linked: a moment of apprehension of the city, that is, how the elite seizes, describes and criticizes the city; and, a second moment, which occurs simultaneously or after the first moment, of intervention in the city, in which the elite exposes its vision and projects for the city and for the territory. Rather than describing the potiguar city in itself, the research is an attempt to reveal how it was perceived along this process from a particular standpoint or discourse, official and elitist, which did not correspond necessarily or completely to what it was in reality. We tried to understand, always through the lens of the discourse, how the ruling elite perceived the potiguar city based on what their members thought about other urban realities, particularly of the advanced countries; how, within an integrated vision, this city was characterized in political, administrative, socioeconomic and spatial terms and how it consolidated itself along the period established for the research. Qualitative and historical in nature, this study was also methodologically developed based upon bibliographical and documental research. Given the fact that this research works with descriptions, comparisons and interpretations, it was necessary to make use of tools such as the discourse analysis in order to apprehend, as much as possible, what lay behind the words of the elite. The primary sources used were essentially the official documents produced by the Presidents of the province, as well as other documents written by top government officials and other members of the administration staff, all of them composing the so-called ruling elite of Rio Grande do Norte. Secondary sources were books and other publications, theses and dissertations, among others. The research made possible the identification of a certain perception of the potiguar city in the 19th century, which is certainly limited because it is grounded on a specific discourse - that of the political and administrative elite, but which, in spite of such a limitation, is still useful to understand the city and its evolution along the period established, among other noteworthy remarks