Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: The case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain

Transferring distribution models between different geographical areas may be problematic, as the performance of models outside their original scope is hard to predict. A modelling procedure is needed that gets the gist of the environmental descriptors of a distribution area, without either overfitting to the training data or overestimating the species’ distribution potential.We tested the transferability power of the favourability function, a generalized linear model, on the distribution of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the Iberian territories of Portugal and Spain.We also tested the effects of two of the main potential constraints on model transferability: the analysed ranges of the predictor variables, and the completeness of the species distribution data. We modelled 10 km×10km presence/absence data from Portugal and Spain separately, extrapolated each model to the other country, and compared predictions with observations. The Spanish model, despite arguably containing more false absences, showed good predictive ability in Portugal. The Portuguese model, whose predictors ranged between only a subset of the values observed in Spain, overestimated desman distribution when transferred.We discuss possible reasons for this differential model behaviour, and highlight the importance of this kind of models for prediction and conservation applications

Geographical patterns of the species richness of helminth parasites of moles (Talpa spp.) in Spain: Separating the effects of sampling effort from those of other conditioning factors

We analysed the viscera of 534 moles (Ta l p a spp.) from 30 of the 47 provinces of peninsular Spain, including 255 individuals of T. europaea from eight provinces, 154 individuals of T. occidentalis from 20 provinces, and 125 unidentified Ta l p a individuals from two provinces. We identified their helminth parasites and determined parasite species richness. We related parasite species richness with sampling effort using both a linear and a logarithmic function. We then performed stepwise linear regressions to predict mole parasite species richness from a small set of selected predictor variables that included sampling effort. We applied the resulting models to forecast T. euro p a e a, T. occidentalis, and Ta l p a spp. parasite species richness in all provinces with recorded host presence, assuming different levels of sampling eff o r t . F i n a l l y, we used partial regression analysis to partition the variation explained by each of the selected variables in the models. We found that mole parasite species richness is strongly conditioned by sampling effort, but that other factors such as cropland area and environmental disturbance have significant independent effects.

Obtaining environmental favourability functions from logistic regression

Logistic regression is a statistical tool widely used for predicting species’ potential distributions starting from presence/absence data and a set of independent variables. However, logistic regression equations compute probability values based not only on the values of the predictor variables but also on the relative proportion of presences and absences in the dataset, which does not adequately describe the environmental favourability for or against species presence. A few strategies have been used to circumvent this, but they usually imply an alteration of the original data or the discarding of potentially valuable information. We propose a way to obtain from logistic regression an environmental favourability function whose results are not affected by an uneven proportion of presences and absences. We tested the method on the distribution of virtual species in an imaginary territory. The favourability models yielded similar values regardless of the variation in the presence/absence ratio. We also illustrate with the example of the Pyrenean desman’s (Galemys pyrenaicus) distribution in Spain. The favourability model yielded more realistic potential distribution maps than the logistic regression model. Favourability values can be regarded as the degree of membership of the fuzzy set of sites whose environmental conditions are favourable to the species, which enables applying the rules of fuzzy logic to distribution modelling. They also allow for direct comparisons between models for species with different presence/absence ratios in the study area. This makes themmore useful to estimate the conservation value of areas, to design ecological corridors, or to select appropriate areas for species reintroductions.

Adesão ao tratamento em pacientes com depressão major: A influência da percepção de doença, suporte social, espiritualidade e do estado emocional

Este estudo teve como finalidade investigar a relação entre alguns factores psicossociais e a adesão terapêutica, utilizando como variáveis preditoras, as representações de doença, a ansiedade e depressão as previsões de suporte social, e a espiritualidade e como variáveis de resultado, a adesão ao regime terapêutico, através da avaliação da adesão à medicação. Pretendeu-se testar quatro hipóteses: (1) Prevê-se que as representações de depressão nas suas dimensões da consequências, duração e controlo pessoal e de tratamento, identidade, preocupação, emoções e compreensão da doença sejam preditores significativos da adesão ao tratamento medicamentoso; (2) Prevê-se que os níveis de ansiedade e depressão dos doentes depressivos estarão significativa e negativamente correlacionados com os níveis de adesão ao tratamento medicamentoso; (3) Prevê-se que os níveis de suporte social percebido estarão significativa e positivamente correlacionados com os níveis de adesão ao tratamento medicamentoso e (4) Prevê-se que os níveis de espiritualidade se encontrem significativa e positivamente correlacionados com os níveis de adesão ao tratamento medicamentoso. Tratou-se de um estudo transversal, com desenho correlacionai e foi desenvolvido num Hospital da Região do Alentejo, mais especificamente, num Departamento de Psiquiatria a saúde Mental, com uma amostra não aleatória de 15 pacientes com o diagnóstico de Depressão. Os resultados confirmaram parcialmente a primeira hipótese, sendo as representações de doença, nas suas dimensões controlo pessoal, controlo do tratamento e emoções preditores significativos da adesão (mais especificamente das alterações das doses da medicação). A segunda hipótese também foi confirmada parcialmente, sendo a depressão preditora da adesão (tanto na dimensão do esquecimento, quanto na alteração das doses da medicação). A terceira hipótese foi, também, parcialmente confirmada sendo a aliança fiável preditora significativa da adesão (na dimensão do esquecimento da toma da medicação). Por último, a quarta hipótese foi igualmente confirmada parcialmente sendo a esperança/optimismo preditora significativa da adesão (tanto na dimensão do esquecimento, quanto na alteração das doses da medicação). Nas análises exploratórias verificou-se a influência da variável sócio­ demográfico “sexo” nas representações cognitivas e também na depressão. A "idade" também demonstrou algum efeito nas alterações à medicação e nas provisões sociais. O "estado civil" mostrou efeito no aconselhamento e na oportunidade de prestação de valores. As variáveis clínicas também mostraram ter influência. O "tempo de doença" mostrou efeito significativo nas representações emocionais, nas crenças, esperança/optimismo e no esquecimento da medicação. A "duração do tratamento com medicação" mostrou efeito na compreensão da doença e no esquecimento da medicação. Por fim, são apresentadas algumas implicações da depressão, bem como algumas sugestões para estudos futuros. /ABSTRACT: This study aimed to investigate the relationship between some psychosocial factors and the adherence, using as predictor variables, the representations of illness, the anxiety and depression, the social support predictions, and spirituality, and as outcome variables, adherence to treatment regimen, through the assessment of medication adherence. lt was intended to test four hypotheses: (1) lt is expected that the depression representations in its dimensions of consequences, duration and personal control and treatment, identity, concern, emotions and disease understanding are significant predictors of adherence to therapy; (2) lt is expected that anxiety and depression levels in depressed patients are significantly and negatively correlated with the levels of adherence to therapy; (3) lt is expected that the levels of perceived social support are significantly and positively correlated with the levels of adherence to drug treatment and (4) lt is expected that the levels of spirituality are significantly and positively correlated with levels of adherence to therapy. This was a cross-sectional study with correlational design and was developed in one Hospital of the Alentejo Region, more specifically, in a Department of Psychiatry and Mental Health, with a non¬random sample of 15 patients diagnosed with depression. The results partially confirmed the first hypothesis, being the representations of disease, in its dimensions of personal control, treatment control and emotions, significant predictors of adherence (more specifically, of the changes in the doses of medication). The second hypothesis was also partially confirmed, with depression being a predictor of adherence {both in the extent of oblivion and in the changes of medication doses). The third hypothesis was also partially confirmed, being the trustable alliance a quite significantly reliable predictor of adherence {in the dimension of the medication oblivion). Finally, the fourth hypothesis was equally partially confirmed, being the hope/optimism significant predictor of adherence (both in the extent of oblivion and in changing doses of medication). ln exploratory analyzes, it was verified the influence of socio-demographic variable "sex" in the cognitive representations and also in depression. The "age" also had some effect on changes to medication and social provisions. The "marital status" had effect in the counseling and in the opportunity to provide values. The clinical variables also proved to have influence. "Time sickness" had a significant effect on emotional representations, beliefs, hope/optimism and medication oblivion. The "treatment duration with medication" had effect in the disease understanding and the medication oblivion. Finally, are presented some implications of depression as well as some suggestions for future studies.

Parental Rejection, Personality, and Depression in the Prediction of Suicidality in a Sample of Nonclinical Young Adults

This study tested a prediction model of suicidality in a sample of young adults. Predictor variables included perceived parental rejection, self-criticism, neediness, and depression. Participants (N 5 165) responded to the Depressive Experiences Questionnaire,theInventoryforAssessingMemoriesofParentalRearingBehavior, theCenterforEpidemiologicalStudiesDepressionScale,andtheSuicideBehaviors Questionnaire—Revised. Perceived parental rejection, personality, and depression wereassessedinitiallyatTime1,anddepressionagainandsuicidalitywereassessed 5 months later at Time 2. The proposed structural equation model fit the observed data well in a sample of young adults. Parental rejection demonstrated direct and indirect relationships with suicidality, and self-criticism and neediness each had indirect associations with suicidality. Depression was directly related to suicidality. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.