Does final demand for energy in Portugal exhibit long memory

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the energy demand variables, that the series are stationary, although the mean reversion process will be slower than in the typical short run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. The effects of temporary policy shocks on final energy demand will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard but much more limited unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects.

Tectonic and lithological controls on fluvial landscape development in central-eastern Portugal: Insights from long profile tributary stream analyses

This study examines the long profiles of tributaries of the Tagus and Zêzere rivers in Portugal (West Iberia) in order to provide new insights into patterns, timing, and controls on drainage development during the Quaternary incision stage. The studied streams are incised into a relict culminant fluvial surface, abandoned at the beginning of the incision stage. The streams flow through a landscape with bedrock variations in lithology (mainly granites and metasediments) and faulted blocks with distinct uplift rates. The long profiles of the analyzed streams record an older transitory knickpoint/knickzone separating (1) an upstream relict graded profile, with lower steepness and higher concavity, that reflects a long period of quasi-equilibrium conditions reached after the beginning of the incision stage, and (2) a downstream rejuvenated long profile, with steeper gradient and lower concavity, particularly for the final reach, which is often convex. The rejuvenated reaches testify to the upstream propagation of several incision waves, interpreted as the response of each stream to increasing crustal uplift and prolonged periods of base-level lowering by the trunk drainages, coeval with low sea level conditions. The morphological configurations of the long profiles enabled spatial and relative temporal patterns of incisions to be quantified. The incision values of streams flowing on the Portuguese Central Range (PCR; ca. 380–150 m) are variable but generally higher than the incision values of streams flowing on the adjacent South Portugal Planation Surface (SPPS; ca. 220–110 m), corroborating differential uplift of the PCR relative to the SPPS. Owing to the fact that the relict graded profiles can be correlated with the Tagus River T1 terrace (1.1–0.9 My) present in the study area, incision rates can be estimated (1) for the streams located in the PCR, 0.38–0.15 m/ky and (2) for the streams flowing on the SPPS, 0.22–0.12 m/ky. The differential uplift inferred in the study area supports the neotectonic activity of the bordering faults, as proposed in previous studies based upon other geological evidence.

Does Final Energy Demand in Portugal Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference parameters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects

Tectonic and lithological controls on fluvial landscape development in central-eastern Portugal: Insights from long profile tributary stream analyses

This study examines the long profiles of tributaries of the Tagus and Zêzere rivers in Portugal (West Iberia) in order to provide new insights into patterns, timing, and controls on drainage development during the Quaternary incision stage. The studied streams are incised into a relict culminant fluvial surface, abandoned at the beginning of the incision stage. The streams flow through a landscape with bedrock variations in lithology (mainly granites and metasediments) and faulted blocks with distinct uplift rates. The long profiles of the analyzed streams record an older transitory knickpoint/knickzone separating (1) an upstream relict graded profile, with lower steepness and higher concavity, that reflects a long period of quasi-equilibrium conditions reached after the beginning of the incision stage, and (2) a downstream rejuvenated long profile, with steeper gradient and lower concavity, particularly for the final reach, which is often convex. The rejuvenated reaches testify to the upstream propagation of several incision waves, interpreted as the response of each stream to increasing crustal uplift and prolonged periods of base-level lowering by the trunk drainages, coeval with low sea level conditions. The morphological configurations of the long profiles enabled spatial and relative temporal patterns of incisions to be quantified. The incision values of streams flowing on the Portuguese Central Range (PCR; ca. 380–150 m) are variable but generally higher than the incision values of streams flowing on the adjacent South Portugal Planation Surface (SPPS; ca. 220–110 m), corroborating differential uplift of the PCR relative to the SPPS. Owing to the fact that the relict graded profiles can be correlated with the Tagus River T1 terrace (1.1–0.9 My) present in the study area, incision rates can be estimated (1) for the streams located in the PCR, 0.38–0.15 m/ky and (2) for the streams flowing on the SPPS, 0.22–0.12 m/ky. The differential uplift inferred in the study area supports the neotectonic activity of the bordering faults, as proposed in previous studies based upon other geological evidence.

Do Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Consumption Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO2 emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO2 emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks