Variability and trends of downward surface global solar radiation over the Iberian Peninsula based on ERA-40 reanalysis

A climate study of the incidence of downward surface global solar radiation (SSRD) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based primarily on ERA-40 reanalysis is presented. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ground-based records from several Portuguese and Spanish stations have been also considered. The results showthat reanalysis can capture a similar inter-annual variability as compared to ground-based observations, especially on a monthly basis, even though annual ERA-40 (NCEP/NCAR) values tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observations with a mean relative difference of around 20Wm–2 (40Wm–2). On the other hand, ground-based measurements in Portuguese stations during the period 1964–1989 show a tendency to decrease until the mid-1970s followed by an increase up to the end of the study period, in line with the dimming/brightening phenomenon reported in the literature. Nevertheless, there are different temporal behaviours as a greater increase since the 1970s is observed in the south and less industrialized regions. Similarly, the ERA-40 reanalysis shows a noticeable decrease until the early 1970s followed by a slight increase up to the end of the 1990s, suggesting a dimming/brightening transition around the early 1970s, earlier in the south and centre and later in the north of the IP. Although there are slight differences in the magnitude of the trends as well as the turning year of the dimming/brightening periods, the decadal changes of ERA-40 fairly agree with the ground-based observations in Portugal and Spain, in contrast to most of the literature for other regions of the world, and is used in the climatology of the SSRD in the study area. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis does not capture the decadal variations of SSRD in the IP. The results show that part of the decadal variability of the global radiation in the IP is related to changes in cloud cover (represented in ERA-40).

Annual Average Value of Solar Radiation and its Variability in Portugal

Solar resource assessment is essential for the different phases of solar energy projects, such as preliminary design engineering, financing including due diligence and, later, insurance phases. An important aspect is the long term resource estimation. This kind of estimation can only be obtained through the statistical analysis of long-term data series of solar radiation measurements, preferably ground measurements. This paper is a first step in this direction, with an initial statistical analysis performed over the radiation data from a national measurement network, consisting of eighty-nine meteorological stations. These preliminary results are presented in figures that represent the annual average values of Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) and its Variability in the Portuguese continental territory. These results show that the South of Portugal is the most suitable area for the implementation of medium to large scale solar plants.

Effects of clouds on the surface shortwave radiation at a rural inland mid-latitude site

Seven years (2003–2010) of measured shortwave (SW) irradiances were used to obtain estimates of the 10 min averaged effective cloud optical thickness (ECOT) and of the shortwave cloud radiative effect (CRESW) at the surface in a mid-latitude site (Évora — south of Portugal), and its seasonal variability is presented. The ECOT, obtained using transmittance measurements at 415 nm, was compared with the correspondent MODIS cloud optical thickness (MODIS COT) for non-precipitating water clouds and cloud fractions higher than 0.25. This comparison showed that the ECOT represents well the cloud optical thickness over the study area. The CRESW, determined for two SW broadband ranges (300–1100 nm; 285–2800 nm), was normalized (NCRESW) and related with the obtained ECOT. A logarithmic relation between NCRESW and ECOT was found for both SW ranges, presenting lower dispersion for overcast-sky situations than for partially cloudy-sky situations. The NCRESW efficiency (NCRESW per unit of ECOT) was also related with the ECOT for overcast-sky conditions. The relation found is parameterized by a power law function showing that NCRESW efficiency decreases as the ECOT increases, approaching one for ECOT values higher than about 50.