2 resultados para long-term care network

em Repositório Científico da Universidade de Évora - Portugal


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The group of 65-year-olds is becoming more numerous and with greater needs for health care. So, is necessary the reflection about new models of provision, organization, and allocation of health resources. According to the United Nations Organization, 2015, in 2050 elderly people will reach two million people (20% of the world’s population), what mean that the number of people over 60 years old will exceed a population of young people under 15 years. Parallel to aging, less healthy lifestyles have contributed to the prevalence of chronic diseases, especially cerebrovascular diseases. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus are risk factors and increase predisposition to other diseases. With aging, there is an increased risk for developing chronic, oncological and degenerative diseases, which account for more than 50% of the burden of diseases, with profound implications on independency, use of health care and services.

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The present work describes the measurement effort for direct normal irradiance (DNI) evaluation in the sunny south of Portugal, with a network of eight radiation measurement stations in several locations (including Évora) providing a good coverage of the region. This new initiative for DNI measurement will still need many years (typically 10 or more) to produce a time series which can claim having long term statistical value. This problem can, however, be temporarily mitigated by measuring DNI at the same time as GHI and DHI, in a place where long term series dating back, already exist for those two. It so happens that a long term series (20 years) of global and diffuse solar irradiation exists for the location Évora. So the expectation is to establish correlations with the goal of attributing at least some long term statistical significance to the short and recent DNI series. The paper describes the setup of the measuring stations and presents the preliminary measurements obtained. It further presents the first correlations of monthly averages between normal beam (DNI), global and diffuse radiation. It then uses these correlations, admittedly without acceptable statistical significance (short series of less than one year of measured data), to exemplify how to get a prediction of long term DNI for Évora. This preliminary obtained value is compared to that predicted by the commercial data from Meteonorm.