A new approach for computing a flood vulnerability index using cluster analysis

A Flood Vulnerability Index (FloodVI) was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new aggregation method based on Cluster Analysis (CA). PCA simplifies a large number of variables into a few uncorrelated factors representing the social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. CA groups areas that have the same characteristics in terms of vulnerability into vulnerability classes. The grouping of the areas determines their classification contrary to other aggregation methods in which the areas' classification determines their grouping. While other aggregation methods distribute the areas into classes, in an artificial manner, by imposing a certain probability for an area to belong to a certain class, as determined by the assumption that the aggregation measure used is normally distributed, CA does not constrain the distribution of the areas by the classes. FloodVI was designed at the neighbourhood level and was applied to the Portuguese municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia where several flood events have taken place in the recent past. The FloodVI sensitivity was assessed using three different aggregation methods: the sum of component scores, the first component score and the weighted sum of component scores. The results highlight the sensitivity of the FloodVI to different aggregation methods. Both sum of component scores and weighted sum of component scores have shown similar results. The first component score aggregation method classifies almost all areas as having medium vulnerability and finally the results obtained using the CA show a distinct differentiation of the vulnerability where hot spots can be clearly identified. The information provided by records of previous flood events corroborate the results obtained with CA, because the inundated areas with greater damages are those that are identified as high and very high vulnerability areas by CA. This supports the fact that CA provides a reliable FloodVI.

Can birds play a role as High Nature Value indicators of montado system?

Montados form a heterogeneous landscape of wooded matrix dominated by cork and/or holm oak with open areas characterized by fuzzy boundaries. Montado supports a high biological diversity associated to low intensity management and a landscape diversity provided by a continuous gradient of land cover. Among other features this permits the classification of montados as a High Nature Value (HNV) system. We assessed the role of birds as HNV indicators for montado, and tested several bird groups—farmland, edge, forest generalists and forest specialists species; and some universal indicators such as species conservation status, Shannon’s diversity index and species richness. Our study areas covered the North–South distribution of cork oak in Portugal, and we surveyed the breeding bird communities across 117 sampling sites. In addition to variables related to management and sanitary status, we considered variables that characterize the landscape heterogeneity inside the montado—trees and shrub density and richness of woody vegetation. Our results suggest that specific bird guilds can be used as HNV indicators of particular typologies of montado, and highlight the need to develop an indicator that could be transversally applied to all types of montado.