Use of Coarse-resolution models of species' distributions to guide local conservation inferences

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter ( Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence–absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures

A new approach for computing a flood vulnerability index using cluster analysis

A Flood Vulnerability Index (FloodVI) was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new aggregation method based on Cluster Analysis (CA). PCA simplifies a large number of variables into a few uncorrelated factors representing the social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. CA groups areas that have the same characteristics in terms of vulnerability into vulnerability classes. The grouping of the areas determines their classification contrary to other aggregation methods in which the areas' classification determines their grouping. While other aggregation methods distribute the areas into classes, in an artificial manner, by imposing a certain probability for an area to belong to a certain class, as determined by the assumption that the aggregation measure used is normally distributed, CA does not constrain the distribution of the areas by the classes. FloodVI was designed at the neighbourhood level and was applied to the Portuguese municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia where several flood events have taken place in the recent past. The FloodVI sensitivity was assessed using three different aggregation methods: the sum of component scores, the first component score and the weighted sum of component scores. The results highlight the sensitivity of the FloodVI to different aggregation methods. Both sum of component scores and weighted sum of component scores have shown similar results. The first component score aggregation method classifies almost all areas as having medium vulnerability and finally the results obtained using the CA show a distinct differentiation of the vulnerability where hot spots can be clearly identified. The information provided by records of previous flood events corroborate the results obtained with CA, because the inundated areas with greater damages are those that are identified as high and very high vulnerability areas by CA. This supports the fact that CA provides a reliable FloodVI.

The Pine Wood Nematode: a personal view

The first report of the disease (“pine wilt disease”) associated with the pinewood nematode, goes back to 1905, when Yano reported an unusual decline of pines from Nagasaki. For a long time thereafter, the cause of he disease was sought, but without success. Because of the large number of insect species that were usually seen around and on infected trees, it had always been assumed that the causal agent would prove to be one of these. However, in 1971, Kiyohara and Tokushike found a nematode of the genus Bursaphelenchus in infected trees. The nematode found was multiplied on fungal culture, inoculated into healthy trees and then re-isolated from the resulting wilted trees. The subsequent published reports were impressive: this Bursaphelenchus species could kill fully-grown trees within a few months in the warmer areas of Japan, and could destroy complete forests of susceptible pine species within a few years. Pinus densiflora, P. thunbergii und P. luchuensis were particularly affected. In 1972, Mamiya and Kiyohara described the new species of nematode extracted from the wood of diseased pines; it was a named Bursaphelenchus lignicolus. Since 1975, the species has spread to the north of Japan, with the exception of the most northerly prefectures. In 1977, the loss of wood in the west of the country reached 80%. Probably as a result of unusually high summer temperatures and reduced rainfall in the years 1978 and 1979, the losses were more than 2 million m3 per year. From the beginning, B. lignicolus was always considered by Japanese scientists to be an exotic pest. But where did it come from? That this nematode could also cause damage in the USA became clear in 1979 when B. lignicolus was isolated in great numbers from wood of a 39 year-old pine tree (Pinus nigra) in Missouri which had suddenly died after the colour of its needles changed to a reddish-brown colour (Dropkin und Foudin, 2 1979). In 1981, B. lignicolus was synonymised by Nickle et al. with B. xylophilus which had been found for the first time in the USA as far back as 1929, and reported by Steiner and Buhrer in 1934. It had originally been named Aphelenchoides xylophilus, the wood-inhabiting Aphelenchoides but was recognised by Nickle, in 1970,to belong in the genus Bursaphelenchus. Its common name in the USA was the "pine wood nematode" (PWN. After its detection in Missouri, it became known that B. xylophilus was widespread throughout the USA and Canada. It occurred there on native species of conifers where, as a rule, it did not show the symptoms of pine wilt disease unless susceptible species were stressed eg., by high temperature. This fact was an illuminating piece of evidence that North America could be the homeland of PWN. Dwinell (1993) later reported the presence of B. xylophilus in Mexico. The main vector of the PWN in Japan was shown to be the long-horned beetle Monochamus alternatus, belonging to the family Cerambycidae. This beetle lays its eggs in dead or dying trees where the developing larvae then feed in the cambium layer. It was already known in Japan in the 19th century but in the 1930s, it was said to be present in most areas of Japan, but was generally uncommon. However, with the spread of the pine wilt disease, and the resulting increase of weakened trees that could act as breeding sites for beetles, the populations of Monochamus spp. increased significantly In North America, other Monochamus species transmit PWN, and the main vector is M. carolinensis. In Japan, there are also other, less efficient vectors in the genus Monochamus. Possibly, all Monochamus species that breed in conifers can transmit the PWN. The occasional transmission by less efficient species of Monochamus or by some of the many other beetle genera in the bark or wood is of little significance. In Europe, M. galloprovincialis and M. sutor transmits the closely related species B. mucronatus. Some speculate that these two insect species are “standing by” and waiting for the arrival of B. xylophilus. In 1982, the nematode was detected and China. It was first found in dead pines near the Zhongshan Monument of Nanjing (CHENG et. al. 1983); 265 trees were then killed by pine wilt disease. Despite great efforts at eradication in China, the nematode spread further and pine wilt disease has been 3 reported from parts of the provinces of Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang and Hubei (YANG, 2003). In 1986, the spread of the PWN to Taiwan was discovered and in 1989, the nematode was reported to be present in the Republic of Korea where it had first been detected in Pinus thunbergii and P. densiflora. It was though to have been introduced with packing material from Japan. PWN was advancing. In 1984, B. xylophilus was found in wood chips imported into Finland from the USA and Canada, and this was the impetus to establish phytosanitary measures to prevent any possible spread into Europe. Finland prohibited the import of coniferous wood chips from these sources, and the other Nordic countries soon followed suit. EPPO (the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization) made a recommendation to its member countries in 1986 to refuse wood imports from infested countries. With its Directive of 1989 (77/93 EEC), the European Community (later called the European Union or EU) recognised the potential danger of B. xylophilus for European forests and imposed restrictions on imports into the Europe. PWN was placed on the quarantine list of the EU and also of other European countries. Later, in 1991, a dispensation was allowed by the Commission of the EU(92/13 EEC) for coniferous wood from North America provided that certain specified requirements were fulfilled that would prevent introduction.