2 resultados para estimating conditional probabilities
em Repositório Científico da Universidade de Évora - Portugal
Resumo:
Failure to detect a species at sites where it is present (i.e. imperfect detection) is known to occur frequently, but this is often disregarded in monitoring programs and metapopulation studies. Here we modelled for the first time the probability of patch occupancy by a threatened small mammal, the southern water vole (Arvicola sapidus, while accounting for the probability of detection given occupancy. Based on replicated presence sign surveys conducted in autumn (November–December 2013) and winter (February–March 2014) in a farmland landscape, we used occupancy detection modelling to test the effects of vegetation, sampling effort, observer experience, and rainfall on detection probability. We then assessed whether occupancy was related to patch size, isolation, vegetation, or presence of water, after correcting for imperfect detection. The mean detection probabilities of water vole signs in autumn (0.71) and winter (0.81) indicated that false absences may be generated in about 20–30% of occupied patches surveyed by a single observer on a single occasion. There was no statistical support for the effects of covariates on detectability. After controlling for imperfect detection, the mean probabilities of occupancy in autumn (0.31) and winter (0.29) were positively related to patch size and presence of water, and negatively so, albeit weakly, to patch isolation. Overall, our study underlined the importance of accounting for imperfect detection in sign surveys of small mammals such as water voles, pointing out the need to use occupancy detection modelling together with replicate surveys for accurately estimating occupancy and the factors affecting it.
Resumo:
A Ilha de Santiago, situada no Arquipélago de Cabo Verde, é dominada por um clima seco e árido, interrompido por curtos períodos de chuvas torrenciais, com grande capacidade de transporte de sedimentos ao longo de vales profundos e encaixados, tributários da Ribeira Seca, onde se situa a Barragem do Poilão, construída em 2006. Os resultados de um levantamento batimétrico da albufeira da barragem realizado em Março de 2013, apontam para uma taxa de sedimentação anual próxima de 90 000 m3 /ano, fazendo com que, em apenas 7, anos a capacidade de armazenamento da albufeira tenha diminuído quase para metade. Os valores determinados neste estudo recomendam a tomada de medidas urgentes por parte do governo de Cabo Verde, no sentido da dragagem e desassoreamento da albufeira do Poilão.