Anomalias da hipótese de eficiência de mercado: estudo do efeito dia da semana na Bolsa de Valores de Cabo Verde

A eficiência dos mercados tem sido uma questão que tem despertado muito interesse no campo dos investimentos e da investigação financeira durante as últimas décadas, mas nos últimos anos com a intensificação dos estudos e surgimento de evidências da existência de comportamentos anómalos nas rentabilidades dos ativos financeiro, esta teoria passou a ser questionada no meio académico. A discussão do tema é ainda muito polémico, pois existem de um lado os defensores da hipótese de eficiência que defendem que as anomalias identificadas não podem ser generalizadas e não são consistentes ao longo do tempo, e de outro lado os defensores da corrente das finanças comportamentais, segundo os quais as anomalias são provocadas por padrões documentados de comportamento irracional dos investidores, sendo que estes comportamentos são inconsistentes com a teoria de eficiência dos mercados. Entre as anomalias detetadas, destacam-se as anomalias de Calendário, tais como o efeito Janeiro, efeito dia da semana, efeito feriado, entre outros; anomalias na valorização de ativos, tais como o efeito tamanho e outras anomalias de sobre reação. O efeito dia da semana é dos mais persistentes detetados em vários mercados internacionais e tendo em conta este cenário, o objetivo desta dissertação é a verificação da existência das anomalias de calendário, mais precisamente o efeito dia da semana onde se irá analisar o efeito segunda-feira, efeito sexta-feira, o efeito fim-de­ semana. Para esta verificação foram utilizadas as cotações diárias médias do Índice da Bolsa de Valores de Cabo Verde, no período de finais de 2005 a finais de 2008. A análise estatística dos resultados diários indicou que não existem evidências da existência do efeito dia da semana. ABSTRACT: The markets efficiency has been an issue of particular interest in the field of financial investigation in recent decades. However, due to the intensification of the studies and the arise of evidences about the existence of abnormal behaviours on financial assets returns, over the last years, this theory begun to be discussed in academic circles. The debate of this theme is still very controversial, because on one hand there are the defenders of the efficiency hypothesis, who defend that identified anomalies cannot be generalized and are not consistent in the long-term; on the other hand, there are the defenders of behavioral finance tendency, to whom the anomalies are caused by documented patterns about the irrational behaviour of investors. These behaviours are inconsistent with the markets efficient theory. Among the detected anomalies, we highlight the calendar anomalies, such as: the January effect, the day of week effect and holiday effect among others; anomalies over the valuation of assets, such as: the size effect and other anomalies on the reaction. The day of week effect is one of the most persistent effect detected in several international markets, and due to this scenario, the objective of this essay is the finding of calendar abnormalities, namely the day of week effect, where the Monday, the Friday and the weekend effects will be analyzed. For this checking, we used the average daily exchange rates from the prices of the Cape Verde Stock Exchange, for the period from late 2005 to late 2008. The statistical analysis of daily results indicated that there is no evidence of the existence of the day of the week effect.

TECTONIC CONTROLS ON FLUVIAL LANDSCAPE DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL-EASTERN PORTUGAL: INSIGHTS FROM LONG PROFILE TRIBUTARY STREAM ANALYSES

This study examines the long profiles of tributaries of the Tejo (Tagus) and Zêzere rivers in central eastern Portugal (West Iberia) in order to provide new insights into the patterns, timing and controls on drainage development during the Pleistocene to Holocene incision stage. The long profiles were extracted from lower order tributary streams associated with the trunk drainage of the Tejo River and one main tributary, the Zêzere River (Fig. 1). These streams flow through a landscape strongly influenced by variations in bedrock lithology (mainly granites and metasediments), fault structures delimiting crustal blocks with distinct uplift rates, and a base-level lowering history (tectonic uplift / eustatic). The long profiles of the tributaries of the Tejo and Zêzere rivers record a series of transient and permanent knickpoints. The permanent knickpoints have direct correlation with the bedrock strength, corresponding to the outcropping of very hard quartzites or to the transition from softer (slates/metagreywaques) to harder (granite) basement. The analyzed streams/rivers record also an older transient knickpoint/knickzone separating: a) an upstream relict graded profile, with lower steepness and higher concavity, that reflects a long period of quasi-equilibrium conditions reached after the beginning of the incision stage; and b) a downstream reach displaying a rejuvenated long profile, with steeper gradient and lower concavity, particularly for the final segment, which is often convex (Fig. 2). The rejuvenated reaches testify the upstream propagation of several incision waves that are the response of each stream to continuous or increasing crustal uplift and dominant periods of base-level lowering by the trunk drainages, coeval of low sea level conditions. The long profiles and their morphological configurations enabled spatial and relative temporal patterns of incision to be quantified for each individual tributary stream. The incision values of streams flowing in uplifted blocks of the Portuguese Central Range (PCR) (ca.380-280 m) indicate differential uplift and are higher than the incision values of streams flowing on the adjacent South Portugal planation surface – the Meseta (ca. 200 m). The normalized steepness index, calculated using the method of Wobus et al. (2006), proved to be sensitive to active tectonics, as lower ksn values were found in relict graded profiles of streams located in less uplifted blocks, (e.g. Sertã stream in the PCR), or in those flowing through tectonic depressions. Fig. 1 – Geological map of the study area. 1 – fluvial terraces (Pleistocene); 2 – sedimentary cover (Paleogene and Neogene); 3 – slates and metasandstones (Devonian); 4 – slates and quartzites (Silurian); 5 – quartzites (Ordovician); 6 – slates and metagreywackes (Precambrian to Cambrian); 7 – slates, metagreywackes and limestones (Precambrian); 8 – granites and ortogneisses; 9 – diorites and gabros; 10 - fault. SFf – Sobreira Formosa fault; Sf – Sertã fault; Pf – Ponsul fault; Gf – Grade fault. The differential uplift indicated by the distribution of the ksn values and by the fluvial incision was likely accumulated on a few major faults, as the Sobreira Formosa fault (SFf), thus corroborating the tectonic activity of these faults. Due to the fact that the relict graded profiles can be correlated with other geomorphic references documented in the study area, namely the T1 terrace of the Tagus River (with an age of ca. 1 Myr), the following incision rates can be estimated: a) for the studied streams located in uplifted blocks of the PCR, 0.38 m/kyr to 0.28 m/kyr; b) for the streams flowing on the South Portugal planation surface, 0.20 m/kyr. The differential uplift inferred between crustal blocks in the study area corroborates the neotectonic activity of the bordering faults, which has been proposed in previous studies based upon less robust data. Fig. 2 – Longitudinal profile of the Nisa stream a tributary of the Tejo River. Note the equilibrium relict profile upstream the older transient knickpoint (hatched line) and the downstream rejuvenated profile (continuous line). Legend: tKP – transient knickpoint; rKp – resistant knickpoint; Mt – schist and phyllite; Gr – granite; Hf – hornfels; Og – orthogneisse. In the inset Distance – Slope plots, fill circles correspond to the relict graded profile, crosses correspond to the rejuvenated profile located downstream the older transient knickpoint (tKP).

Mário SAA (1893-1971): Um intelectual português na sociedade do século XX

Mário Saa (1893-1971) - um percurso de índole nacionalista, onde se cruzam a literatura, a ciência, a filosofia e a história. Pretende-se revelar o trajecto de um intelectual português da direita conservadora do início do século XX, numa perspectiva transnacional. Aborda-se o seu percurso intelectual, analisando os reflexos da identidade europeia na sua produção cultural. Através do seu legado depositado na Fundação Arquivo Paes Teles, no Ervedal, uma freguesia do concelho de Avis, acedemos ao tempo da sua formação académica e às temáticas que abordou na sua vasta e diferenciada produção cultural. Descobrem-se os seus círculos de sociabilidade literária e intelectual, e entende-se a construção da sua consagração através de um conjunto de dedicatórias gravadas nos livros da sua biblioteca. Um legado que permite aceder à sua «modernidade» decorrente da interacção com a Europa intelectual e do seu contexto de vivências variadas. /ABSTRACT: ln this paper we examine the career of the nationalist thinker, Mário Saa (1893-1971), whose achievements were in the fields of literature, science, philosophy and history, as a model of the right-wing conservative Portuguese intellectual at the beginning of the 20th century from a trans-national perspective. We trace his intellectual trajectory, analysing the influence of European identity on his cultural output. The complete works of Mário Saa, housed at the Paes Teles Archive Foundation in Ervedal, a parish in the district (concelho) of Avis, provide us with a window on the period during which he completed his academic training and the topics he examined in his extensive and varied cultural works. We profile the literary and intellectual social circles in which he moved, and seek to gain an understanding of how his reputation carne to be established by analysing the dedications contained in books from his library. Mário Saa's legacy enables us to understand the ‘modern’ nature of his work, deriving from his interaction with European intellectuals and the context of his varied experience.

"Portuguese Observatory of Taeniasis and Cysticercosis": A "One Health" example for epidemiological surveillance of one neglected disease in a European country

Cysticercosis results from the ingestion Taenia solium eggs directly by faecal-oral route or contaminated food or water. Human tapeworm carriers who have become infected after ingesting pork meat contaminated with cysticerci release these eggs. Cysticercosis occurs after tapeworm eggs are ingested by an intermediate host (pig or human) and then hatch, migrate, and lodge in the host's tissues, where they develop onto larval cysticerci. When they lodged in the central nervous system of humans, results in the disease condition called Neurocysticercosis (NCC), with a heterogeneous manifestations depending of the locations of cysts, number, size and their stage of evolution (1). Consequently the prognostic ranges from asymptomatic to situations leading to death in 2% to 9.8%. of cases (7) In swine’s there are few studies, but recent works have proved that animals, for the same reasons, also have neurological abnormalities, expressed by seizures, stereotypic walk in circles, chewing motions with foamy salivation included tonic muscle contractions followed by a sudden diminution in all muscle tone leading to collapse (2). Conventional domestic wastewater treatment processes may not be totally effective in inactivating parasites eggs from Taenia solium, allowing some contamination of soils and agricultural products (11). In Portugal there are some evidence of aggregation of human cysticercosis cases in specific regions, bases in ecological design studies (6). There are few information about human tapeworm carriers and social and economic factors associated with them. Success in knowledge and consequently in lowering transmission is limited by the complex network of biological and social factors that maintain the spread. Effective control of mostly zoonosis require One Health approach, after a real knowledge and transparency in the information provided by the institutions responsible for both animal and human health, allowing sustained interventions targeted at the transmission cycle's crucial nodes. In general, the model used to control, reflects a rural reality, where pigs are raised freely, poor sanitation conditions and incipient sanitary inspection. In cysticercosis, pigs are obligate intermediate hosts and so considered as first targets for control and used as sentinels to monitor environmental T. solium contamination (3). Usually environmental contamination with Taenia spp. eggs is a key issue in most of studies with landscape factors influencing presence of Taenia spp. antigens in both pigs and humans (5). Soil-related factors as well as socio-economic and behavioural factors are associated with the emergence of significant clustering human cysticercosis (4,5). However scarce studies has been produced in urban environmental and in developed countries with the finality to characterize the spatial pattern. There are still few data available regarding its prevalence and spatial distribution; Transmission patterns are likely to exhibit correlations as housing conditions, water supply, basic sanitation, schooling and birthplace of the individual or relatives, more than pigs rearing free, soil conditions (9). As a matter of fact, tapeworm carriers from endemic zones can auto-infect or transmit infection to other people or arrive already suffering NCC (as a result of travelling to or being a citizen from an endemic cysticercosis country) to a free cysticercosis country. Transmission is fecal-oral; this includes transmission through person-to-person contact, through autoinfection, or through contaminated food This has been happening in different continents as North America (5.4–18% been autochthonous), Europe and Australia (7). Recently, case reports of NCC have also emerged from Muslim countries. (10). Actually, different papers relate an epidemic situation in Spain and Portugal (7, 8). However the kind of study done does not authorize such conclusion. There are no evidence that infections were acquired in Portugal and there are not characterized the mode of transmission. Papers with these kind of information will be allow to have economic consequences resulted from artificial trade barriers with serious consequences for pig producers and pig meat trade. We need transparency in information’s that allow provide the basis to support the development and targeting of future effective control programmes (and prove we need that). So, to have a real picture of the disease, it is necessary integrate data from human, animal and environmental factors surrounding human and pig cases to characterize the pattern of the transmission. The design needs to be able to capture unexpected, and not common outcomes (routine data). We need to think “One Health” to get a genuine image of the situation.