PRICE TRANSMISSION ON THE MILK PORTUGUESE MARKET

This paper aims to analyze the milk prices transmission along the food chain in Portugal, temporally and spatially. The results show that the volatility on retail prices is small but happens after 2008. The farm gate price does not change when the price of package milk changes. In mainland, price transmission does not happen but for Azores the transmission is effective. In the intensive systems, the risk to collapse is bigger than in the extensive systems, where the volatility of prices reflects the process of markets adjustment.

A controversial debate between financial speculation and changes in agricultural commodity spot prices

Some research works state that speculation with agricultural commodities on the futures market has risen agricultural commodity spot prices. This research work analyzes the causal relationships between spot prices of corn, wheat, and soybean and agricultural commodity futures trading activities. These causal relationships between agricultural commodity spot prices and financial variables are tested for Granger-causality. Model results show that causal relationships have been found among changes in “volume traded” and “open positions” of futures contracts and changes in spot prices for corn. These results do not show that financial speculation might be a major driver of rising agricultural commodity prices.