Discrimination capacity in species distribution models depends on the representativeness of the environmental domain

Aim When faced with dichotomous events, such as the presence or absence of a species, discrimination capacity (the ability to separate the instances of presence from the instances of absence) is usually the only characteristic that is assessed in the evaluation of the performance of predictive models. Although neglected, calibration or reliability (how well the estimated probability of presence represents the observed proportion of presences) is another aspect of the performance of predictive models that provides important information. In this study, we explore how changes in the distribution of the probability of presence make discrimination capacity a context-dependent characteristic of models. For the first time,we explain the implications that ignoring the context dependence of discrimination can have in the interpretation of species distribution models.

New measures for assessing model equilibrium and prediction mismatch in species distribution models

Models based on species distributions are widely used and serve important purposes in ecology, biogeography and conservation. Their continuous predictions of environmental suitability are commonly converted into a binary classification of predicted (or potential) presences and absences, whose accuracy is then evaluated through a number of measures that have been the subject of recent reviews. We propose four additional measures that analyse observation-prediction mismatch from a different angle – namely, from the perspective of the predicted rather than the observed area – and add to the existing toolset of model evaluation methods. We explain how these measures can complete the view provided by the existing measures, allowing further insights into distribution model predictions. We also describe how they can be particularly useful when using models to forecast the spread of diseases or of invasive species and to predict modifications in species’ distributions under climate and land-use change

fuzzySim: Fuzzy similarity in species distributions

fuzzySim is an R package for calculating fuzzy similarity in species occurrence patterns. It includes functions for data preparation, such as converting species lists (long format) to presence-absence tables (wide format), obtaining unique abbreviations of species names, or transposing (parts of) complex data frames; and sample data sets for providing practical examples. It can convert binary presence-absence to fuzzy occurrence data, using e.g. trend surface analysis, inverse distance interpolation or prevalence-independent environmental favourability modelling, for multiple species simultaneously. It then calculates fuzzy similarity among (fuzzy) species distributions and/or among (fuzzy) regional species compositions. Currently available similarity indices are Jaccard, Sørensen, Simpson, and Baroni-Urbani & Buser.

Atlas versus range maps: robustness of chorological relationships to distribution data types in European mammals

Aim Chorological relationships describe the patterns of distributional overlap among species. In addition to revealing biogeographical structure, the resulting clusters of species with similar geographical distributions can serve as natural units in conservation planning. Here, we assess the extent to which temporal, methodological and taxonomical differences in the source of species’ distribution data can affect the relationships that are found.

Favourable areas for expansion and reintroduction of Iberian lynx accounting for distribution trends and genetic diversity of the European rabbit

Although on a local scale Iberian lynx distribution is determined by the availability of prey rabbits, recent modelling analyses have uncovered broad-scale disagreements between these two species’ distribution trends. These analyses showed also that the lynx had become restricted to only a fraction of the rabbit’s genetic diversity, and that this could be jeopardising its survival in the face of environmental hazards and uncertainty. In the present paper, a follow-up was carried out through the building of lynx and rabbit distribution models based on the most recent Spanish mammal atlas. Environmental favourability values for lynx and rabbit were positively correlated within the lynx’s current distribution area, but they were negatively correlated within the total Spanish area where lynx used to occur in the 1980’s. Environmental favourability for rabbits was significantly higher where lynx maintains reproductive populations than where it recently disappeared, indicating that rabbit favourability plays an important role and can be a good predictor of lynx persistence. The lynx and rabbit models were extrapolated to predict favourable areas for both species in Spain as well as in Portugal, on the original scale of the distribution data (10x10 km) and on a 100 times finer spatial resolution (1x1 km). The lynx and rabbit models were also combined through fuzzy logic to forecast the potential for lynx occurrence incorporating information on favourable areas for its main prey. Several areas are proposed as favourable for lynx expansion or re-introduction,

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

A influência dos factores humanos, ambientais e do pastoreio na ocorrência de geneta (Genetta genetta) no Sítio Monfurado

O presente estudo determina e analisa a importância relativa de diversos descritores ambientais, de pastoreio e de influência humana directa na distribuição da geneta (Genetta genetta L., 1758). O estudo decorreu em Monfurado, Sítio de Importância Comunitária, no Sul de Portugal. A área de estudo é predominantemente agrícola, maioritariamente ocupada por montado. A análise do padrão de distribuição deste carnívoro através de partição da variância e de ITMC (lnformation Theoretic Model Comparison) teve como objectivo orientar as prioridades na gestão das actividades humanas, compatíveis com a presença da espécie. Os resultados mostram que a distribuição da geneta é maioritariamente influenciada pelos descritores ambientais, apresentando uma relação positiva com densidade de montado com matos, conteúdo de matéria orgânica do solo e índice de Shannon de diversidade vertical da vegetação. A sua presença parece também ser promovida por níveis intermédios de pastoreio e fora das zonas de caça do regime cinegético especial. ABSTRACT; This study determines and analyses the relative importance of several environmental, livestock and human descriptors in the distribution of the common genet (Genetta genetta L., 1758). The study was conducted in Monfurado, a Site of Communitary lmportance, in South Portugal. The study area is Mediterranean farmland and is dominated by evergreen oak tree stands, named "montado". Modeling the distribution of this carnivore species was evaluated on the basis of ITMC (lnformation Theoretic Model Comparison) and variation partitioning techniques aiming to define human management activities compatible with the species conservation. The results show that the species distribution is mainly influenced by the environmental descriptors, and is positively related with montado and shrubs density, soil organic matter and Shannon's index of vertical vegetation diversity. Genet presence is favoured by intermediate levels of grazing and outside of game estates areas.

Evolução da distribuição da lontra (lutra lutra L.) na península ibérica: modelos a diferentes escalas e a sua projeção no espaço e no tempo

A Lontra Euroasiática foi alvo de quatro prospeções na Península Ibérica (1990-2008). Em 2003, foi publicado um modelo de distribuição da lontra, com base nos dados de presença/ausência das prospeções publicadas em 1998. Dadas as suas características, este tipo de modelos pode tornar-se um elemento chave nas estratégias de recuperação da lontra como também, de outras espécies, se comprovada a sua fiabilidade e capacidade de antecipar tendências na distribuição das mesmas. Assim, esta dissertação confrontou as previsões do modelo com os dados de distribuição de 2008, a fim de identificar potências áreas de discordância. Os resultados revelam que, o modelo de distribuição de lontra proposto, apesar de ter por base dados de 1998 e de não considerar explicitamente processos biológicos, conseguiu captar o essencial da relação espécie-ambiente, resultando num bom desempenho preditivo para a distribuição da mesma em Espanha, uma década depois da sua construção; Evolution of otter (Lutra lutra L.) distribution in the Iberian Peninsula: Models at different scales and their projection through space and time Abstract: The Eurasian otter was already surveyed four times in the Iberian Peninsula (1990-2008). In 2003, a distribution model for the otter based on presence/absence data from the survey published in 1998, was published. This type of models has advantages that can make it in a key element for otter conservation strategies and also, for other species, but only, if their reliability and capability to predict species distribution tendencies are validated. The present thesis compares the model predictions with 2008 data, in order to find potential mismatch areas. Results suggest that, although the distribution model for the otter was based on data from 1998 and, doesn’t include explicitly biological mechanisms, it managed to correctly identify the essence of the species-environment relationship, what was translated in a good predictive performance for its actual distribution in Spain, after a decade of its construction.

Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: The case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain

Transferring distribution models between different geographical areas may be problematic, as the performance of models outside their original scope is hard to predict. A modelling procedure is needed that gets the gist of the environmental descriptors of a distribution area, without either overfitting to the training data or overestimating the species’ distribution potential.We tested the transferability power of the favourability function, a generalized linear model, on the distribution of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the Iberian territories of Portugal and Spain.We also tested the effects of two of the main potential constraints on model transferability: the analysed ranges of the predictor variables, and the completeness of the species distribution data. We modelled 10 km×10km presence/absence data from Portugal and Spain separately, extrapolated each model to the other country, and compared predictions with observations. The Spanish model, despite arguably containing more false absences, showed good predictive ability in Portugal. The Portuguese model, whose predictors ranged between only a subset of the values observed in Spain, overestimated desman distribution when transferred.We discuss possible reasons for this differential model behaviour, and highlight the importance of this kind of models for prediction and conservation applications

The influence of forest management on bird communities of portuguese montados

The world distribution of cork oak Quercus suber and holm oak Q. rotundifolia is basically restricted to the western Mediterranean basin. These two evergreen oaks are the base of the Portuguese montado and the Spanish dehesa. This thesis aims to analyse how bird communities of the montado are influenced by management practices. We used different approaches to study this relationship, and to evaluate which features are responsible for species distribution in different typologies of montado. First, we reviewed the concept of montado in order to better understand the system and to set thresholds on what can be considered as montado. Afterwards, we studied the elements that promote higher species diversity and individual species, or group of species, that can act as indicators of High Nature Value for montados. Finally, we evaluated how the bird communities are structured, and the influence of the main management actions (e.g. cattle and cork exploitation) on those communities; Resumo: A distribuição mundial do sobreiro Quercus suber e da azinheira Quercus rotundifolia é praticamente restrita à bacia do Mediterrâneo. Estas duas espécies de carvalhos são a base dos montados em Portugal e das dehesas em Espanha. No âmbito desta tese analisamos como as comunidades de aves do montado são influenciadas pela gestão florestal. Para este efeito usámos diferentes abordagens e avaliámos quais as características do montado responsáveis pela distribuição das espécies ao longo das suas diferentes tipologias. Fizemos uma revisão do conceito de montado e proposemos uma definição para o sistema, englobando a sua multifuncionalidade. Estudámos os elementos singulares que promovem a diversidade de aves e que podem ser simultaneamente indicadores de áreas de Alto Valor Natural (HNV). Por fim, avaliámos qual a influência da gestão (p. ex. pastoreio e descortiçamento) na estruturação das comunidades de aves.