Occurrence and abundance models of threatened plant species: Applications to mitigate the impact of hydroelectric power dams

Species occurrence and abundance models are important tools that can be used in biodiversity conservation, and can be applied to predict or plan actions needed to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower dams. In this study our objectives were: (i) to model the occurrence and abundance of threatened plant species, (ii) to verify the relationship between predicted occurrence and true abundance, and (iii) to assess whether models based on abundance are more effective in predicting species occurrence than those based on presence–absence data. Individual representatives of nine species were counted within 388 randomly georeferenced plots (10 m × 50 m) around the Barra Grande hydropower dam reservoir in southern Brazil. We modelled their relationship with 15 environmental variables using both occurrence (Generalised Linear Models) and abundance data (Hurdle and Zero-Inflated models). Overall, occurrence models were more accurate than abundance models. For all species, observed abundance was significantly, although not strongly, correlated with the probability of occurrence. This correlation lost significance when zero-abundance (absence) sites were excluded from analysis, but only when this entailed a substantial drop in sample size. The same occurred when analysing relationships between abundance and probability of occurrence from previously published studies on a range of different species, suggesting that future studies could potentially use probability of occurrence as an approximate indicator of abundance when the latter is not possible to obtain. This possibility might, however, depend on life history traits of the species in question, with some traits favouring a relationship between occurrence and abundance. Reconstructing species abundance patterns from occurrence could be an important tool for conservation planning and the management of threatened species, allowing scientists to indicate the best areas for collection and reintroduction of plant germplasm or choose conservation areas most likely to maintain viable populations.

Obtaining environmental favourability functions from logistic regression

Logistic regression is a statistical tool widely used for predicting species’ potential distributions starting from presence/absence data and a set of independent variables. However, logistic regression equations compute probability values based not only on the values of the predictor variables but also on the relative proportion of presences and absences in the dataset, which does not adequately describe the environmental favourability for or against species presence. A few strategies have been used to circumvent this, but they usually imply an alteration of the original data or the discarding of potentially valuable information. We propose a way to obtain from logistic regression an environmental favourability function whose results are not affected by an uneven proportion of presences and absences. We tested the method on the distribution of virtual species in an imaginary territory. The favourability models yielded similar values regardless of the variation in the presence/absence ratio. We also illustrate with the example of the Pyrenean desman’s (Galemys pyrenaicus) distribution in Spain. The favourability model yielded more realistic potential distribution maps than the logistic regression model. Favourability values can be regarded as the degree of membership of the fuzzy set of sites whose environmental conditions are favourable to the species, which enables applying the rules of fuzzy logic to distribution modelling. They also allow for direct comparisons between models for species with different presence/absence ratios in the study area. This makes themmore useful to estimate the conservation value of areas, to design ecological corridors, or to select appropriate areas for species reintroductions.

fuzzySim: Fuzzy similarity in species distributions

fuzzySim is an R package for calculating fuzzy similarity in species occurrence patterns. It includes functions for data preparation, such as converting species lists (long format) to presence-absence tables (wide format), obtaining unique abbreviations of species names, or transposing (parts of) complex data frames; and sample data sets for providing practical examples. It can convert binary presence-absence to fuzzy occurrence data, using e.g. trend surface analysis, inverse distance interpolation or prevalence-independent environmental favourability modelling, for multiple species simultaneously. It then calculates fuzzy similarity among (fuzzy) species distributions and/or among (fuzzy) regional species compositions. Currently available similarity indices are Jaccard, Sørensen, Simpson, and Baroni-Urbani & Buser.

Use of Coarse-resolution models of species' distributions to guide local conservation inferences

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter ( Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence–absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.