Application of Mixture Models to Survival Data

Survival models are being widely applied to the engineering field to model time-to-event data once censored data is here a common issue. Using parametric models or not, for the case of heterogeneous data, they may not always represent a good fit. The present study relays on critical pumps survival data where traditional parametric regression might be improved in order to obtain better approaches. Considering censored data and using an empiric method to split the data into two subgroups to give the possibility to fit separated models to our censored data, we’ve mixture two distinct distributions according a mixture-models approach. We have concluded that it is a good method to fit data that does not fit to a usual parametric distribution and achieve reliable parameters. A constant cumulative hazard rate policy was used as well to check optimum inspection times using the obtained model from the mixture-model, which could be a plus when comparing with the actual maintenance policies to check whether changes should be introduced or not.

Use of Coarse-resolution models of species' distributions to guide local conservation inferences

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter ( Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence–absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures

Assessment of the spatial variability in Tall wheatgrass forage using LANDSAT 8 satellite imagery to delineate potential management zones

Little information is available on the degree of within-field variability of potential production of Tall wheatgrass (Thinopyrum ponticum) forage under unirrigated conditions. The aim of this study was to characterize the spatial variability of the accumulated biomass (AB) without nutritional limitations through vegetation indexes, and then use this information to determine potential management zones. A 27-×-27-m grid cell size was chosen and 84 biomass sampling areas (BSA), each 2 m(2) in size, were georeferenced. Nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers were applied after an initial cut at 3 cm height. At 500 °C day, the AB from each sampling area, was collected and evaluated. The spatial variability of AB was estimated more accurately using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), calculated from LANDSAT 8 images obtained on 24 November 2014 (NDVInov) and 10 December 2014 (NDVIdec) because the potential AB was highly associated with NDVInov and NDVIdec (r (2) = 0.85 and 0.83, respectively). These models between the potential AB data and NDVI were evaluated by root mean squared error (RMSE) and relative root mean squared error (RRMSE). This last coefficient was 12 and 15 % for NDVInov and NDVIdec, respectively. Potential AB and NDVI spatial correlation were quantified with semivariograms. The spatial dependence of AB was low. Six classes of NDVI were analyzed for comparison, and two management zones (MZ) were established with them. In order to evaluate if the NDVI method allows us to delimit MZ with different attainable yields, the AB estimated for these MZ were compared through an ANOVA test. The potential AB had significant differences among MZ. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that NDVI obtained from LANDSAT 8 images can be reliably used for creating MZ in soils under permanent pastures dominated by Tall wheatgrass.

Umbrella pine above ground biomass estimation with very high spatial resolution satellite images

Above ground biomass is frequently estimated with forest inventory data and an extrapolation method for the per unit area evaluations. This procedure is labour demanding and costly. In this study above ground biomass functions, whose independent variable is crown horizontal projection, were developed. Multi-resolution segmentation method and object-oriented classification, based on very high spatial resolution satellite images, were used to obtain the area of tree crown horizontal projection for umbrella pine (Pinus pinea L.). A set of inventory plots were measured and with existing allometric functions for this species above ground biomass per tree and per plot were calculated. The two data sets were used to fit linear functions both for individual plot and their cumulative values. The results show a good performance of the models. Errors smaller than 10% are obtained for stand areas greater than 1.4 ha. These functions have the advantages of estimating above ground biomass for all the area under study or surveillance, not requiring forest inventory; allow monitoring in short time periods; and are easily implemented in a geographical information system environment.

Above ground biomass estimation in Mediterranean multiple use systems with high spatial resolution satellite images

Forest biomass has been having an increasing importance in the world economy and in the evaluation of the forests development and monitoring. It was identified as a global strategic reserve, due to its applications in bioenergy, bioproduct development and issues related to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The estimation of above ground biomass is frequently done with allometric functions per species with plot inventory data. An adequate sampling design and intensity for an error threshold is required. The estimation per unit area is done using an extrapolation method. This procedure is labour demanding and costly. The mail goal of this study is the development of allometric functions for the estimation of above ground biomass with ground cover as independent variable, for forest areas of holm aok (Quercus rotundifolia), cork oak (Quercus suber) and umbrella pine (Pinus pinea) in multiple use systems. Ground cover per species was derived from crown horizontal projection obtained by processing high resolution satellite images, orthorectified, geometrically and atmospheric corrected, with multi-resolution segmentation method and object oriented classification. Forest inventory data were used to estimate plot above ground biomass with published allometric functions at tree level. The developed functions were fitted for monospecies stands and for multispecies stands of Quercus rotundifolia and Quercus suber, and Quercus suber and Pinus pinea. The stand composition was considered adding dummy variables to distinguish monospecies from multispecies stands. The models showed a good performance. Noteworthy is that the dummy variables, reflecting the differences between species, originated improvements in the models. Significant differences were found for above ground biomass estimation with the functions with and without the dummy variables. An error threshold of 10% corresponds to stand areas of about 40 ha. This method enables the overall area evaluation, not requiring extrapolation procedures, for the three species, which occur frequently in multispecies stands.

Spatial and temporal downscaling of solar global radiation and mean air temperature from weather forecast data - an introductory numerical study and validation

This short paper presents a numerical method for spatial and temporal downscaling of solar global radiation and mean air temperature data from global weather forecast models and its validation. The final objective is to develop a prediction algorithm to be integrated in energy management models and forecast of energy harvesting in solar thermal systems of medium/low temperature. Initially, hourly prediction and measurement data of solar global radiation and mean air temperature were obtained, being then numerically downscaled to half-hourly prediction values for the location where measurements were taken. The differences between predictions and measurements were analyzed for more than one year of data of mean air temperature and solar global radiation on clear sky days, resulting in relative daily deviations of around -0.9±3.8% and 0.02±3.92%, respectively.

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.