How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

Plano nacional de leitura: mais e melhor literacia

Este estudo visa descrever e analisar comparativamente as estratégias de leitura desenvolvidas por um grupo de educadoras a trabalhar em estabelecimento educativos, nos quais está a ser desenvolvido o Plano Nacional de Leitura e por outro grupo no qual não está implementado este projeto. Para o efeito realizamos um estudo de caso em quatro salas do ensino pré-escolar frequentadas por crianças de cinco anos de idade. Neste estudo, foram utilizadas várias técnicas e instrumentos de recolha de dados. Assim sendo, realizámos entrevistas às educadoras, observação naturalista às mesmas a lerem histórias às crianças, aplicámos questionários a nível nacional e também aplicámos inquéritos às crianças dos grupos destas educadoras, com o objetivo de detetarmos quais as suas atitudes perante a leitura de histórias. Os resultados mostram-nos que apesar de existirem nos estabelecimentos onde se encontra a decorrer o Plano Nacional de Leitura mais livros e equipamento informático que naqueles aonde este projeto ainda não foi implementado isso não é sinónimo de mais e melhores práticas nem melhores resultados na promoção da literacia junto das crianças. ABSTRACT: This Study is a comparative analysis of the literacy strategies employed by two groups of teachers; one that follows the National Reading Project and another one that does not. The case study was conducted in four preschool classrooms with five-year old children. Several data collection techniques were used; teacher interviews, naturalistic observations in the classrooms during read-aloud, teacher questionnaires, and student questionnaires to describe Literacy beliefs and practices. The results show that, even though there are more books and e-learning resources in classrooms where the National Reading Project is implemented, this does not translate into more and better Literacy practices or in better promotion of reading attitudes in children.

Into the looking glass: Literacy acquisition and mirror invariance in preschool and first-grade children

At what point in reading development does literacy impact object recognition and orientation processing? Is it specific to mirror images? To answer these questions, forty-six 5- to 7-year-old preschoolers and first graders performed two same–different tasks differing in the matching criterion-orientation-based versus shape-based (orientation independent)-on geometric shapes and letters. On orientation-based judgments, first graders out- performed preschoolers who had the strongest difficulty with mirrored pairs. On shape-based judgments, first graders were slower for mirrored than identical pairs, and even slower than preschoolers. This mirror cost emerged with letter knowledge. Only first graders presented worse shape-based judgments for mirrored and rotated pairs of reversible (e.g., b-d; b-q) than nonreversible (e.g., e-ә) letters, indicating readers’ difficulty in ignoring orientation contrasts relevant to letters.