Discrimination capacity in species distribution models depends on the representativeness of the environmental domain

Aim When faced with dichotomous events, such as the presence or absence of a species, discrimination capacity (the ability to separate the instances of presence from the instances of absence) is usually the only characteristic that is assessed in the evaluation of the performance of predictive models. Although neglected, calibration or reliability (how well the estimated probability of presence represents the observed proportion of presences) is another aspect of the performance of predictive models that provides important information. In this study, we explore how changes in the distribution of the probability of presence make discrimination capacity a context-dependent characteristic of models. For the first time,we explain the implications that ignoring the context dependence of discrimination can have in the interpretation of species distribution models.

New measures for assessing model equilibrium and prediction mismatch in species distribution models

Models based on species distributions are widely used and serve important purposes in ecology, biogeography and conservation. Their continuous predictions of environmental suitability are commonly converted into a binary classification of predicted (or potential) presences and absences, whose accuracy is then evaluated through a number of measures that have been the subject of recent reviews. We propose four additional measures that analyse observation-prediction mismatch from a different angle – namely, from the perspective of the predicted rather than the observed area – and add to the existing toolset of model evaluation methods. We explain how these measures can complete the view provided by the existing measures, allowing further insights into distribution model predictions. We also describe how they can be particularly useful when using models to forecast the spread of diseases or of invasive species and to predict modifications in species’ distributions under climate and land-use change

Sensible use of primary energy in organic greenhouse production.

This document addresses the direct and indirect use of energy in European organic greenhouse horticulture (OGH) with the aim of reviewing available means for making it more environmental friendly and identifying knowledge gaps that should be addressed to attain this aim. The first observation is that there is no common regulation for energy use in OGH, which is not unexpected, since the need for climatisation is not uniformly distributed in the EU (and outside). Accordingly, the EU directive on organic agriculture does not set limitations on the use of energy, but rather promotes the responsible use of energy and of natural resources. The restrictions and rules of most private standards are slightly more stringent. Some standards have specific restrictions on the amount and sources of energy and/or on the seasonal use of energy for heating. Some standards also address processes that may affect (in)direct energy use, such as cultivation methods, mulching, lighting and growing media or substrates. However, most private standards have no or little restrictions or regulations on energy use. Accordingly, it should not surprise that very little quantitative information is available about energy use in OGH. In the present document we have filled the gaps with data with estimates drawn on energy use in conventional greenhouses. With respect to ongoing research, whereas many of the present research results about energy use and saving in conventional greenhouses are relevant (and also applied) in OGH, little research is devoted to address the energy use that is peculiar to OGH, particularly energy use for humidity control. In short, there are still a lot of knowledge gaps to improve quality and to lower energy use in organic greenhouses. The purpose of this document is a summary of present relevant knowledge about energy use and energy saving and of the perspective for improvement. In particular, the goal is to make an overview on the methods and technologies which can be used to reduce the energy use in OGH. We start from the assumption that methods and technologies that are used for reducing direct and indirect energy in conventional greenhouses can also be applied in organic greenhouses. Research on reducing energy use in conventional greenhouses is also more widely available because the area of conventional greenhouse horticulture is much larger than the area of OGH. When implementing these methods and techniques we should take into account the specific characteristics of organic agriculture like soil-based cultivation, use of organic fertilizers and the limited use of crop protection products. This document is organised as follows: first we report the results of a survey about energy use and relevant standards in the countries participating to the COST action (chapter 1); then we review the energy use for climatisation: heating (chapter 2) and humidity (chapter 3). In chapter 4 we review the available design and management means that would either reduce energy use and/or increase energy use efficiency by increasing productivity of OGH. In chapter 5 we present a short summary of existing information on indirect energy use, that is the energy required to manufacture production means (greenhouse structure and cover, fertilisers, equipment etc.) and for crop protection, particularly steaming, and briefly discuss possible savings. Finally (chapter 6) we review briefly the potential for application of renewable energy sources in OGH.