Convergence time to equilibrium distributions of autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs

We present some estimates of the time of convergence to the equilibrium distribution in autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs, with ergodic stochastic adjacency matrices, using the eigenvalues of these matrices. On this way we generalize previous results from several authors, that only considered reversible matrices.

Use of Coarse-resolution models of species' distributions to guide local conservation inferences

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter ( Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence–absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

The Palace of Quinta do Marquês do Alegrete: restitution strategies for space, time and memory

Palaces, as an architectural typology, can be found in recreation Quintas that surrounded the main cities in Portugal, which preserved its rural character since the 16th century until the middle of the 19th century. Consisting of cultivated land and farm buildings, the palace of the Quinta was the owner´s temporary residence, for summer holidays and festive events, with gardens, pavilions, fountains and lakes for recreational purposes and leisure. The focus on palaces, as a historic building and as in need of new uses, clearly shows how current the debate on contemporary interventions in this heritage typology is. Interventions in architectural heritage require multidisciplinary teams to identify conservation strategies which enable a qualified use of its spaces, such as for example the experience of security and well-being, which can contribute to a better quality of life and simultaneously to the quality of the urban environment. This paper presents the Palace of Quinta Alegre and its rehabilitation project for contemporary use and public esteem, both of which are considered fundamental prerequisites for its sustainable maintenance in space, in time and in memory. [versão Portuguesa] Sob a denominação de tipologia arquitectónica, o edifício Palácio pode ser encontrado nas Quintas de Recreio que rodeavam as principais cidades Portuguesas, tendo preservado o seu carácter rural, desde o século XVI até metade do século XIX. Consistindo as Quintas em terra cultivada e edifícios rurais, o Palácio da Quinta consistia na residência temporária do proprietário, para férias de verão e eventos comemorativos, dispondo de jardins, pavilhões, fontes e lagos para recreação e lazer. O tema dos Palácios, entendido como edifício histórico que procura novos usos, demonstra como é actual o debate sobre intervenções contemporâneas nesta tipologia de valor patrimonial. A intervenção em património arquitectónico requer a definição de estratégias de conservação por equipas multidisciplinares que permitam estabelecer um uso qualificado dos seus espaços, proporcionando experiências sensoriais de bem-estar e segurança, contribuindo para uma melhor qualidade de vida e, simultaneamente, para a qualidade do ambiente urbano em que se insere. Este artigo tem por objectivo apresentar o Palácio da Quinta Alegre e o projecto de reabilitação, devolvendo-o a um uso contemporâneo e à estima pública, factores fundamentais para a sua manutenção sustentável no espaço, no tempo e na memória.