How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

Long term performance evaluation of small-diameter vascular grafts based on polyvinyl alcohol hydrogel and dextran and MSCs-based therapies using the ovine pre-clinical animal model.

The functional and structural performance of a 5 cm synthetic small diameter vascular graft (SDVG) produced by the copolymerization of polyvinyl alcohol hydrogel with low molecular weight dextran (PVA/Dx graft) associated to mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs)-based therapies and anticoagulant treatment with heparin, clopidogrel and warfarin was tested using the ovine model during the healing period of 24 weeks. The results were compared to the ones obtained with standard expanded polyetetrafluoroethylene grafts (ePTFE graft). Blood flow, vessel and graft diameter measurements, graft appearance and patency rate (PR), thrombus, stenosis and collateral vessel formation were evaluated by B-mode ultrasound, audio and color flow Doppler. Graft and regenerated vessels morphologic evaluation was performed by scanning electronic microscopy (SEM), histopathological and immunohistochemical analysis. All PVA/Dx grafts could maintain a similar or higher PR and systolic / diastolic laminar blood flow velocities were similar to ePTFE grafts. CD14 (macrophages) and α-actin (smooth muscle) staining presented similar results in PVA/Dx/MSCs and ePTFE graft groups. Fibrosis layer was lower and endothelial cells were only detected at graft-artery transitions where it was added the MSCs. In conclusion, PVA/Dx graft can be an excellent scaffold candidate for vascular reconstruction, including clinic mechanically challenging applications, such as SDVGs, especially when associated to MSCs-based therapies to promote higher endothelialization and lower fibrosis of the vascular prosthesis, but also higher PR values.