New measures for assessing model equilibrium and prediction mismatch in species distribution models

Models based on species distributions are widely used and serve important purposes in ecology, biogeography and conservation. Their continuous predictions of environmental suitability are commonly converted into a binary classification of predicted (or potential) presences and absences, whose accuracy is then evaluated through a number of measures that have been the subject of recent reviews. We propose four additional measures that analyse observation-prediction mismatch from a different angle – namely, from the perspective of the predicted rather than the observed area – and add to the existing toolset of model evaluation methods. We explain how these measures can complete the view provided by the existing measures, allowing further insights into distribution model predictions. We also describe how they can be particularly useful when using models to forecast the spread of diseases or of invasive species and to predict modifications in species’ distributions under climate and land-use change

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

Long term performance evaluation of small-diameter vascular grafts based on polyvinyl alcohol hydrogel and dextran and MSCs-based therapies using the ovine pre-clinical animal model.

The functional and structural performance of a 5 cm synthetic small diameter vascular graft (SDVG) produced by the copolymerization of polyvinyl alcohol hydrogel with low molecular weight dextran (PVA/Dx graft) associated to mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs)-based therapies and anticoagulant treatment with heparin, clopidogrel and warfarin was tested using the ovine model during the healing period of 24 weeks. The results were compared to the ones obtained with standard expanded polyetetrafluoroethylene grafts (ePTFE graft). Blood flow, vessel and graft diameter measurements, graft appearance and patency rate (PR), thrombus, stenosis and collateral vessel formation were evaluated by B-mode ultrasound, audio and color flow Doppler. Graft and regenerated vessels morphologic evaluation was performed by scanning electronic microscopy (SEM), histopathological and immunohistochemical analysis. All PVA/Dx grafts could maintain a similar or higher PR and systolic / diastolic laminar blood flow velocities were similar to ePTFE grafts. CD14 (macrophages) and α-actin (smooth muscle) staining presented similar results in PVA/Dx/MSCs and ePTFE graft groups. Fibrosis layer was lower and endothelial cells were only detected at graft-artery transitions where it was added the MSCs. In conclusion, PVA/Dx graft can be an excellent scaffold candidate for vascular reconstruction, including clinic mechanically challenging applications, such as SDVGs, especially when associated to MSCs-based therapies to promote higher endothelialization and lower fibrosis of the vascular prosthesis, but also higher PR values.

Allergological evaluation of a dog population in a veterinary immuno-allergology consultation: What correlates in a canine model

Introduction: Allergic dermatitis (AD) is the most common canine pruritic condition in veterinary dermatology. Allergic dermatitis to flea bites presents the highest prevalence, followed by atopic dermatitis and food AD. This study aimed to identify possible correlation between data from clinical signs, intradermal tests (IDT) and specific IgE levels, which are used in dog AD assessment. Methods: Fifty five dogs from the Veterinary Hospital of the University of Évora (Portugal) and Rof Codina University Hospital (Lugo, Spain) outpatient consultations were studied by means of clinical inquiry, IDT and specific IgE determination. Thirty five of the patients belonged to predisposed breeds, 30 were females and 25 males. Forty one (74%) were indoor. Results: In 82% of cases first clinical signs appeared before the age of 3 years and 24% even before 1 year old. In 70% of the individuals clinical signs included itching, which was generalized in 66%, with 78% of paw licking and chewing. Clinical profile showed seasonal worsening in 64% of cases. From the 69.1% of dogs already presenting with dermatitis, 50% also presented external otitis and 28.9% self-inflicted alopecia. "Intense itching" was found in 10.5%, "medium itching" in 81.6% and “mild itching” in 5.26% of the patients. Prevalence of positive IDT was 37.3 % to Lep d, 29.41% to Der f, 27.5% to Der p, 25.5% to Dac g and 21.6% to Malassezia sp. From the 37 dogs submitted to food IDT, 40.5% revealed positive to beef, 27% to chicken, 27% to porc and 5.4% to lamb. Specific IgE > 150 EAU was found in 84% of dogs to indoor allergen sources and in 68% to pollens. A negative correlation was found between an outdoor life and the intensity (p = 0.033) and precocity (p = 0.026) of clinical signs. Sensitization to pollens was found positively correlated with the seasonality of clinical signs (p = 0.001) and the positivity for Dac g (p = 0.007). The prevalence of chronic otitis correlated positively with alopecia and reactivity to Lep d (p = 0.008), Plantago lanceolata (p = 0.026) and Platanus acerifolia (p = 0.017). There was no correlation between the results of ITD and specific IgE. Conclusion: We can conclude that correlation between different clinical signs and positive testing for some allergenic sources may occur, as well as between sensitization to pollens and the beginning, the intensity and the seasonality of dog patient clinical signs.