3 resultados para Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE)

em Repositório Científico da Universidade de Évora - Portugal


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Os controladores de caudal, normalmente implementados em sistemas Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), apresentam uma grande relevância no controlo automático de canais de adução. Para garantir que os controladores de caudal sejam fiáveis em todo o seu domínio de funcionamento (em situações de escoamento com ressalto livre ou submerso e de transição entre escoamentos com ressalto livre e ressalto submerso) foram comparados os resultados dos ensaios experimentais com diferentes métodos de cálculo da vazão em comportas e/ou sobre soleiras. O programa de ensaios foi realizado nos canais laboratorial e experimental da Universidade de Évora. Foram realizados ensaios em comportas planas verticais e em soleiras do tipo Waterways Experiment Station (WES) controladas ou não por comportas planas verticais. Em ambos os casos, foram contempladas as situações de escoamento com ressalto livre e submerso. Os resultados obtidos mostram que: a) para as comportas, o método Rajaratnam e Subramanya (1967a) conduz a bons resultados com um erro percentual médio absoluto MAPE < 1% para o escoamento com ressalto livre e MAPE < 4% para o submerso; a transição entre escoamentos foi identificada corretamente por este método; b) para as soleiras, obtiveram-se bons resultados para o escoamento com ressalto livre para o método USACE (1987), com MAPE < 2%, e para o submerso através do método Alves e Martins (2011), com MAPE < 5%; a transição entre escoamentos pode ser considerada adequada de acordo com a curva experimental de Grace (1963); c) para soleiras controladas por comporta, conseguiram-se bons resultados para o escoamento com ressalto livre recorrendo à equação dos orifícios de pequenas dimensões, com MAPE < 1, 5%, e para o submerso com a equação dos orifícios totalmente submersos com MAPE < 1, 6%; em ambos os casos foi necessária calibração do coeficiente de vazão; a transição entre escoamentos foi adequada pelo método de Grace (1963). Com base nos resultados obtidos, foi possível definir um algoritmo de vazão generalizado para comportas e/ou soleiras que permite a determinação da vazão para as situações de escoamento com ressalto livre e submerso incluindo a transição entre escoamentos; ABSTRACT: Flow controllers, usually implemented in Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems, are very important in the automatic control of irrigation canal systems. To ensure that flow controllers are reliable for the entire operating range (free or submerged flow and flow transitions) the experimental results were compared with different methods of flow measurement for gates and/or weirs. The test program was conducted in the laboratory flume and in the automatic canal of the University of ´Evora. Tests were carried in sluice gates and in broad-crested weirs controlled or not by sluice gate. In both cases free and submerged flow conditions were analyzed. The results show that: a) for the sluice gates, the method of Rajaratnam e Subramanya (1967a) leads to good results with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) < 1% for free flow and MAPE < 4% for submerged flow. The transition between flows is correctly identified by this method; b) for the uncontrolled weir, good results were obtained for free flow with the method USACE (1987) with MAPE < 2%, and for submerged flow by the method Alves e Martins (2011) with MAPE < 5%. The transition between flows can be accurately defined by the experimental curve of Grace (1963); c) for the controlled weir, good results were achieved for the free flow with the small orifice equation with MAPE < 1.5% and for submerged flow with the submerged orifice equation with MAPE < 1.6%; in both cases the calibration of the discharge coefficient is needed. The transition between flows can be accomplished through Grace (1963) method. Based on the obtained results, it was possible to define a generalized flow algorithm for gates and/or weirs that allows flow determination for free and submerged flow conditions including the transition between flows.

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This paper presents a methodology for short-term load forecasting based on genetic algorithm feature selection and artificial neural network modeling. A feed forward artificial neural network is used to model the 24-h ahead load based on past consumption, weather and stock index data. A genetic algorithm is used in order to find the best subset of variables for modeling. Three data sets of different geographical locations, encompassing areas of different dimensions with distinct load profiles are used in order to evaluate the methodology. The developed approach was found to generate models achieving a minimum mean average percentage error under 2 %. The feature selection algorithm was able to significantly reduce the number of used features and increase the accuracy of the models.

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A method based on Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) measured reflectance at 0.6 and 3.9 µm is used to retrieve the cloud optical thickness (COT) and cloud effective radius (re) over the Iberian Peninsula. A sensitivity analysis of simulated retrievals to the input parameters demonstrates that the cloud top height is an important factor in satellite retrievals of COT and re with uncertainties around 10% for small values of COT and re; for water clouds these uncertainties can be greater than 10% for small values of re. The uncertainties found related with geometries are around 3%. The COT and re are assessed using well-known satellite cloud products, showing that the method used characterize the cloud field with more than 80% (82%) of the absolute differences between COT (re) mean values of all clouds (water plus ice clouds) centred in the range from ±10 (±10 µm), with absolute bias lower than 2 (2 μm) for COT (re) and root mean square error values lower than 10 (8 μm) for COT (re). The cloud water path (CWP), derived from satellite retrievals, and the shortwave cloud radiative effect at the surface (CRESW) are related for high fractional sky covers (Fsc >0.8), showing that water clouds produce more negative CRESW than ice clouds. The COT retrieved was also related to the cloud modification factor, which exhibits reductions and enhancements of the surface SW radiation of the order of 80% and 30%, respectively, for COT values lower than 10. A selected case study shows, using a ground-based sky camera that some situations classified by the satellite with high Fsc values correspond to situations of broken clouds where the enhancements actually occur. For this case study, a closure between the liquid water path (LWP) obtained from the satellite retrievals and the same cloud quantity obtained from ground-based microwave measurements was performed showing a good agreement between both LWP data set values.