Does final demand for energy in Portugal exhibit long memory

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the energy demand variables, that the series are stationary, although the mean reversion process will be slower than in the typical short run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. The effects of temporary policy shocks on final energy demand will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard but much more limited unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects.

Formulação de betão autocompactável com resíduos de pedreiras do Alentejo: Aproveitamento de resíduos no fabrico do betão

Os betões autocompactáveis (BAC) são betões que se definem pela capacidade de fluir no interior das cofragens, preenchendo-as e envolvendo as armaduras só por acção do seu próprio peso, sem bloqueio dos agregados e mantendo-se homogéneo em todo o seu volume. As adições activas do tipo II nomeadamente as cinzas volantes, utilizadas na fabricação do BAC irão escassear no futuro pelo facto de provirem da queima do carvão da qual resulta uma quantidade elevada de C02. Para minimizar estas emissões, o carvão começa a ser substituído por gás natural. Mas, como o BAC necessita duma grande quantidade de finos, há necessidade de encontrar outros subprodutos que a substituam. Tendo em conta o que atrás se afirma introduziram-se na fabricação do BAC resíduos de pedreira do Alentejo, identificaram-se as suas características no estado fresco e no estado endurecido. Este estudo teve também em conta o factor económico da sua produção. /ABSTRACT: Self-Compacting (SCC) is concrete which may be defined by the ability to flow inside the formwork, filling them and involving the reinforcements only by action of its own weight, without blocking and maintaining uniformity throughout its volume. Type II additions, as fly ash, are used in the manufacture of SCC. The supply of fly ash in the future will be difficult because they come from the burning of coal resulting in a high amount of C02. To minimize these emissions, coal is being replaced by natural gas. But, as the BAC requires a large amount of fine materials, the formulation of SCC requires other fine products. Having this in mind, the use of waste from Alentejo quarries in concrete was tested. The characteristics of SCC with waste material were identified in fresh and hardened state. This study also took into account the economic factor of production.

Does Final Energy Demand in Portugal Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference parameters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects