The EU ban on uncovered sovereign credit default swaps: assessing impacts on liquidity, volatility and price discovery

This article addresses the effects of the prohibition against naked CDS buying implemented by the European Union in November 2012. Three aspects of market quality are analyzed: liquidity, volatility, and price informativeness. Overall, our results suggest that the ban produced negative effects on liquidity and price informativeness. First, we find that in territories within the scope of the EU regulation, the bid–ask spreads on sovereign CDS contracts rose after the ban, but fell for countries outside its bounds. Open interest declined for both groups of CDS reference entities in our sample, but significantly more in the constraint group. Price delay increased more prominently for countries affected by the ban, whereas price precision decreased for these countries while increasing for CDSs written on other sovereign reference entities. Most notably, our findings indicate that hese negative effects were more pronounced amid reference entities exhibiting lower credit risk. With respect to volatility, the evidence suggests that the ban was successful in stabilizing the CDS market in that volatility decreased, particularly for contracts written on riskier CDS entities.

Coastal lagoons and their watersheds as GWDE: a case study in the southwest coast of Portugal

The study of groundwater dependent ecosystems opened the opportunity to involve specialists of different areas of knowledge in order to obtain answers for complex interrelations between groundwater and the associated ecosystems. The actual study, carried out in two coastal lagoons of the Portuguese SW coast, showed the high dependency of the marine life and vegetation of the lagoons and associated streams discharging in the lagoons on the fresh water supply of these two lagoons and the high contribution they receive from groundwater in the dry period, which corresponds to more than half of each hydrologic year. Every year, the lagoons are artificially opened to the ocean for a few days to a few weeks, which dramatically changes the inside salinity. The sensitivity of these ecological niches is demonstrated by the strong dependence that some species that are more sensitive to high salinity waters show in relation to the entrance of freshwater resultant from the discharge of the phreatic aquifer of Sines sedimentary Basin. The great biodiversity of these lagoons and its precarious balance is only possible to preserve if the aquifer continue to act as a regulatory factor of the lagoon’s salinity. The equilibrium can be changed in the event of overexploitation of the phreatic aquifer, which is not at risk in the near future. In a scenario of climate change the lagoons will benefit from a slow increase in groundwater contribution, due to the rise of sea level, which will be accompanied by a rise in groundwater levels in the aquifer near the sea.

DNI Measurements in the South of Portugal: Long Term Results through Direct Comparison with Global and Diffuse Radiation Measurements and Existing Time Series

The present work describes the measurement effort for direct normal irradiance (DNI) evaluation in the sunny south of Portugal, with a network of eight radiation measurement stations in several locations (including Évora) providing a good coverage of the region. This new initiative for DNI measurement will still need many years (typically 10 or more) to produce a time series which can claim having long term statistical value. This problem can, however, be temporarily mitigated by measuring DNI at the same time as GHI and DHI, in a place where long term series dating back, already exist for those two. It so happens that a long term series (20 years) of global and diffuse solar irradiation exists for the location Évora. So the expectation is to establish correlations with the goal of attributing at least some long term statistical significance to the short and recent DNI series. The paper describes the setup of the measuring stations and presents the preliminary measurements obtained. It further presents the first correlations of monthly averages between normal beam (DNI), global and diffuse radiation. It then uses these correlations, admittedly without acceptable statistical significance (short series of less than one year of measured data), to exemplify how to get a prediction of long term DNI for Évora. This preliminary obtained value is compared to that predicted by the commercial data from Meteonorm.

A Natalidade e a Fecundidade em Portugal

Para melhor compreendermos a situação de fecundidade em Portugal no início do século XXI, precisamos analisar a evolução das últimas décadas, na medida em que o comportamento passado condiciona o observado no momento actual. Nos últimos 30 a 40 anos, registaram-se enormes alterações nos padrões de fecundidade por idades. Nos anos 60 e 70, o modelo alterou-se, na medida em que as mulheres passaram a ter filhos mais cedo, isto é, a fecundidade elevou-se abaixo dos 28 anos (principalmente, entre os 23 e os 26) e a fecundidade tardia (a partir dos 32 anos) reduziu-se bastante. Até ao início dos anos 80, a contracepção foi utilizada maioritariamente no interior do casamento, por mulheres com idade acima dos 30 anos, após terem atingido o número desejado de filhos. Nos anos 80, o modelo voltou a alterar-se. O número de filhos por mulher desceu para valores abaixo de 2. Na década seguinte, última do século XX, a tendência acentuou-se: o número de filhos manteve-se baixo, e continuou a adiar-se, para idades cada vez mais tardias, o momento do nascimento (valores mais elevados entre os 28 e os 30 anos). Registou-se um elevado nível de contracepção, em mulheres jovens com idades até aos 28 anos; contracepção eficaz e generalizada, antes do casamento, precedendo o nascimento do primeiro filho. A partir de 2000 até 2009, o número de nascimentos diminuiu ainda mais e o adiamento não parou de aumentar. Todavia, começou a assistir-se a uma recuperação muito ténue no número de nascimentos em idades mais tardias, entre os 33 e os 42 anos (valores mais elevados registados em mães com 29, 30 e 31 anos). Como resultado de um comportamento de declínio ao longo de décadas, agravado por um quadro recente onde as mulheres não pararam de adiar a idade da maternidade, Portugal converteu-se num dos países da Europa e do Mundo com mais baixos níveis de fecundidade.

A influência dos factores humanos, ambientais e do pastoreio na ocorrência de geneta (Genetta genetta) no Sítio Monfurado

O presente estudo determina e analisa a importância relativa de diversos descritores ambientais, de pastoreio e de influência humana directa na distribuição da geneta (Genetta genetta L., 1758). O estudo decorreu em Monfurado, Sítio de Importância Comunitária, no Sul de Portugal. A área de estudo é predominantemente agrícola, maioritariamente ocupada por montado. A análise do padrão de distribuição deste carnívoro através de partição da variância e de ITMC (lnformation Theoretic Model Comparison) teve como objectivo orientar as prioridades na gestão das actividades humanas, compatíveis com a presença da espécie. Os resultados mostram que a distribuição da geneta é maioritariamente influenciada pelos descritores ambientais, apresentando uma relação positiva com densidade de montado com matos, conteúdo de matéria orgânica do solo e índice de Shannon de diversidade vertical da vegetação. A sua presença parece também ser promovida por níveis intermédios de pastoreio e fora das zonas de caça do regime cinegético especial. ABSTRACT; This study determines and analyses the relative importance of several environmental, livestock and human descriptors in the distribution of the common genet (Genetta genetta L., 1758). The study was conducted in Monfurado, a Site of Communitary lmportance, in South Portugal. The study area is Mediterranean farmland and is dominated by evergreen oak tree stands, named "montado". Modeling the distribution of this carnivore species was evaluated on the basis of ITMC (lnformation Theoretic Model Comparison) and variation partitioning techniques aiming to define human management activities compatible with the species conservation. The results show that the species distribution is mainly influenced by the environmental descriptors, and is positively related with montado and shrubs density, soil organic matter and Shannon's index of vertical vegetation diversity. Genet presence is favoured by intermediate levels of grazing and outside of game estates areas.