Measuring persistence in nominal exchange rate: Implications for Angola’s entrepreneurship and business development

The purpose of this paper is to measure the degree of persistence in the Kwanza to US Dollar exchange rate. First, our results indicate that nominal exchange rates both in levels and in first differences are I(0), thus implying that the relative purchasing power parity hypothesis for Angola is not rejected. Secondly, we find a significant degree of persistence in both the formal and informal nominal exchange rates. Thirdly, the degree of persistence in the official market is significantly lower than in the formal market, while In first differences, persistence in the official exchange rate is substantially higher than in the informal exchange rate. Lastly, we could not find strong evidence that persistence has changed in levels throughout the sample period. By contrast, there is significant evidence that persistence in first differences has consistently increased after September 2003. These results have important policy implications as the National Bank of Angola is preparing to change its monetary and exchange-rate policy focus to a more inflation-targeting regime and to a more a flexible (or low-managed) exchange-rate regime.

Cross-shore transport in a daily varying upwelling regime: A case study of barnacle larvae on the southwestern Iberian coast.

With favored offshore and downstream advection, the question of which physical mechanism may promote onshore transport of larvae in upwelling systems is of central interest. We have conducted a semi-realistic high resolution (0.25 km) numerical study of Lagrangian transports across the inner-shelf under upwelling-favorable wind forcing conditions, focusing on the shelf area of the Southwestern Portuguese coast, in the lee of Cape Sines. We add our findings to several years of biological observations of C. montagui, a planktonic species with higher recruitment during the upwelling peak timely with the daylight flood. Simulations cover a fifteen days period during the summer of 2006. We focused on Spring and Neap tide periods and observed upfront differences between simulations and the in situ observa- tions. However, the model is capable of representing the main dynamics of the region, namely the re- petitive character of the inner-shelf currents. We find that the cross-shore flow varies significantly in the daily cycle, and locally within a scale of a few kilometers in association with local topography and the presence of the cape. We consider the region immediately in the lee of the cape to be an upwelling shadow where the larvae became retained, and found that tidally tied migration proves beneficial for successful recruitment during the spring tides period. Our work suggested that the wind is not the only mechanism responsible for the daily variability of the cross-shore exchange. However, its sharp reversal at midday is critical for the advection of larvae towards the coast.