How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

A avaliação de desempenho docente vista por professores: realidades, expetativas, desafios e oportunidades

A avaliação de desempenho docente tem sido considerada o alfa e o ômega dos sistemas educativos, nas últimas décadas. Em Portugal, desde 2007, esta questão tornou-se mais acutilante devido às alterações introduzidas no Estatuto da Carreira Docente que originaram uma alteração profunda nas práticas de avaliação do desempenho docente. A implementação do novo modelo despoletou forte resistência por parte destes profissionais, alimentada por uma base concetual distante da realidade das escolas portuguesas e por tibiezas na execução do processo de avaliação. O principal objetivo deste estudo consistiu em apresentar os contributos de professores para um modelo de avaliação do desempenho docente, assumindo as expetativas e as perceções destes profissionais como referente imprescindível para a sustentabilidade avaliativa do modelo. Para além disso, procedeu-se a uma breve descrição e avaliação do modelo de avaliação docente, implementado entre 2007 e 2011, recuperando perceções depuradas pelo tempo. O estudo, descritivo e inferencial, conciliou abordagens de natureza quantitativa e qualitativa, tendo recorrido a um questionário, aplicado a 585 docentes em funções no Algarve, e à entrevista, realizada a quatro informadores privilegiados do processo avaliativo. Os resultados alcançados apontaram para i) de um conjunto de pareceres favoráveis face a alguns aspetos do modelo de avaliação vigente entre 2007 e 2011; ii) uma avaliação globalmente negativa do mesmo modelo, iii) a definição de componentes das diferentes dimensões de modelo avaliativo, onde se identificou a preponderância da vertente formativa; a articulação da avaliação dos docentes com a avaliação de escola e com outros documentos de gestão escolar; a coincidência dos ciclos avaliativos com a progressão na carreira; a autoavaliação como principal instrumento de recolha de dados; a observação facultativa de aulas; a existência de avaliadores com formação em supervisão ou avaliação e capacitados com um perfil adequado; e o uso dos resultados da avaliação para a melhoria das práticas letivas e para a progressão na carreira, sendo ainda de considerar a possibilidade de acionar mecanismos de recuperação, caso existissem indicadores de insucesso na prática profissional do docente. O estudo termina com o enunciado de recomendações para a reconceptualização do modelo de avaliação dos docentes, permitindo reconhecer e eliminar os fatores conflituantes, tendo em vista a concretização da avaliação docente como estratégia impulsionadora da melhoria do desempenho dos professores, da escola e do sistema educativo. Palavras-chave: avaliação educacional; avaliação de desempenho docente; modelos de avaliação de desempenho docente; desenvolvimento profissional do professor, educadores e professores dos ensinos básico e secundário; ABSTRACT:Teacher performance appraisal has been considered the alpha and omega of educational systems in recent decades. In Portugal, since 2007, this issue has become more incisive due to amendments to the Teaching Career Statute that brought deep changes in assessment practices of teacher performance. The application of the new system has triggered strong resistance by these professionals, powered by a distant conceptual basis of the reality of Portuguese schools and weaknesses in the implementation of the appraisal process. The aim of this study is to present the teachers contributions to this teacher performance appraisal model, taking the expectations and perceptions of these professionals as an essential reference for the sustainability of the appraisal process. In addition, a brief description and evaluation of the teacher performance appraisal model, implemented between 2007 and 2011, was given, recovering perceptions filtered by time. The study, descriptive and inferential, reconciled quantitative and qualitative approaches, has used a questionnaire applied to 585 teachers serving on the Algarve, and an interview to four held key informants of the teacher appraisal process. The achieved results showed i) a set of favorable opinions about some aspects of the current evaluation model between 2007 and 2011; ii) a generally negative evaluation of the same model, iii) the definition of components of different dimensions of the appraisal system, which showed preponderance of formative purposes; the joint assessment of teachers with school evaluation and other school management documents; the coincidence of the evaluation cycles with career advancement; self-evaluation as the main data collection instrument; the optional classroom observation; the existence of evaluators under supervision in training or evaluation and empowered with the right profile; and the use of evaluation results to improve teaching practices and to career advancement, still considering the possibility of using recovery mechanisms if there were failure indicators in professional teaching practice. The study ends with the statement of recommendations for the reconceptualization of teacher performance appraisal, which allowed to recognize and eliminate conflicting factors, with a view to implementing the teaching appraisal as a compelling strategy for improving teacher performance, school and educational system. Keywords: educational evaluation; teacher performance appraisal; teacher performance appraisal systems; teacher professional development; early years teachers, primary and secondary school teachers.

Os docentes e a biblioteca escolar: Uma relação necessária

O presente estudo, descritivo com levantamento de dados, aborda a temática das relações entre os Docentes e a Biblioteca Escolar (BE). A escolha do tema deve-se à actualidade e pertinência do mesmo, já que numa sociedade caracterizada por um crescimento ilimitado de informação aliada à diversidade de meios de difusão e à facilidade de acesso às fontes, possibilitada pelas modernas tecnologias, obriga necessariamente a repensar o papel das Bibliotecas Escolares, que passará por uma estreita colaboração e articulação com os professores. Assim, procurou-se conhecer a relação que se estabelece entre os docentes de uma Escola Secundária com 3° Ciclo e a Biblioteca Escolar (BE) com destaque para as formas de apropriação da sua utilização; averiguar outras possibilidades de integração I articulação da BE no desenvolvimento do currículo e das suas práticas; e saber qual a concordância dos professores sobre indicadores que o Modelo de Auto-Avaliação das Bibliotecas Escolares propõe no âmbito da articulação curricular da BE com as estruturas pedagógicas e os docentes. Com o desenvolvimento do estudo verificou-se que os professores consideram que utilizam a biblioteca de uma forma mais participada, diversificada e frequente do que realmente acontece. Quanto à aplicação do Modelo de Auto-avaliação das Bibliotecas Escolares existe um quadro favorável à sua aplicação nesta Escola. /ABSTRACT: This descriptive study, which was done through the organization and analysis of large amounts of information, talks about the relation between teachers and the school library. This theme was chosen due to its pertinence as well as its actuality, as we live in a society marked by the unlimited growth of information associated with the diversity of the means of broadcasting and the easiness people can access the sources thanks to new technologies. This forces us to reconsider the role of school libraries, starting with a close collaboration and articulation with teachers. Thus, we'll try to know the kind of relationship established between the teachers of a high school and the school library, mainly the ways they use it; we'll examine other possibilities of integrating the school library in the development of the curriculum and its practices and know if the teachers agree with the indicators recommended by the self-evaluation model in what concerns the curricular articulation between the school library, the pedagogic structures and the teachers. This study shows that the teachers consider they use the library in a more diversified, shared and frequent way than they really do. ln what concerns the use of the school libraries self-evaluation model, we carne to the conclusion that it can be applied.

Avaliação do potencial de desenvolvimento em meninos e meninas dos 4 aos 6 anos

Todos nós, educadores, devemos prestar uma atenção aprofundada às potencialidades e inclinações das crianças que constituem os nossos grupos, para que possamos estimular e desenvolver as suas competências. É nesse sentido que desenvolvemos este Estudo Exploratório, com o qual se pretende analisar a adaptação da avaliação de potencial derivada da Teoria das Inteligência Múltiplas ao contexto da Educação Pré-Escolar, com o objectivo de contribuir para a qualidade da intervenção educativa, articulando conceitos como Inteligência, Competência, Potencial, Currículo, Avaliação Dinâmica. Participam no estudo 42 crianças que frequentam Jardim de Infância e integram dois grupos heterogéneos e as respectivas educadoras. A metodologia é de natureza qualitativa e quantitativa, apoiando-se na aplicação dos seguintes instrumentos: modelo de avaliação de potencial baseado no Spectrum; Inventário de Quociente Emocional, versão para crianças e jovens (Bar-On Emocional Quotient Inventory: Youth Version), adaptado a educadores por Candeias e Monteiro (2010); questionário de Caracterização do ambiente educativo - Sala de Actividades, adaptado por Candeias e lglésias (2010); Teste de Avaliação de Habilidades Cognitivas de Solução de Problemas lnterpessoais (EVHACOSPI). Os resultados obtidos sugerem a importância de uma avaliação do potencial, baseada na Teoria das Inteligências Múltiplas, que utiliza instrumentos adequados a cada um dos domínios do potencial e da competência humana propostos por H. Gardner: verbal, Lógico-Matemática, Musical, Corporal-Cinestésica, Visuo-espacial, lnterpessoal, Intrapessoal e Naturalista. Apontam também para o papel que este tipo de avaliação pode desempenhar na intervenção educativa que se objectiva intencional e fundamentada. ABSTRACT: Ali of us, educators, must pay a special attention to the potentialities and inclinations of children who make up our groups, so enabling the stimulation and development of their competences. ln this sense we developed this Exploratory Study, through which is intended to analyse the adaptation of potential evaluation derived from the Theory of Multiple intelligences in the range of Pre-School Education, aiming at the contribution for the educative intervention: articulating concepts such as Intelligence, Competence Potential, Curriculum, and Dynamic Evaluation. The study involves 42 children attending Infant School, belonging to two heterogeneous groups and respective educators. Methodology is of qualitative and quantitative nature, supported by the following instruments: evaluation model based on Spectrum; Inventory of Emotional Quotient, version for children and youths, adapted to educators by Candeias e Monteiro (2010), Query of Characterization of Educative Environment - Activities Room, adapted by Candeias e lglésias (2010); Test for Evaluation of Cognitive Abilities of Interpersonal Problems Solution. (EVHACOSPI). The results suggest the importance of an assessment, based on the Theory of Multiple Intelligence, which uses instruments fitted to each of the domains of human potential and competence proposed by H. Gardiner: Verbal, Logical-Maths, Musical, Corporal¬ Kinaesthetic, Visuo-Spatial, Interpersonal, Intrapersonal and Naturalist. They also refer to the role that this type of assessment can play in the educational intervention aiming to be intentional and grounded.

Long term performance evaluation of small-diameter vascular grafts based on polyvinyl alcohol hydrogel and dextran and MSCs-based therapies using the ovine pre-clinical animal model.

The functional and structural performance of a 5 cm synthetic small diameter vascular graft (SDVG) produced by the copolymerization of polyvinyl alcohol hydrogel with low molecular weight dextran (PVA/Dx graft) associated to mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs)-based therapies and anticoagulant treatment with heparin, clopidogrel and warfarin was tested using the ovine model during the healing period of 24 weeks. The results were compared to the ones obtained with standard expanded polyetetrafluoroethylene grafts (ePTFE graft). Blood flow, vessel and graft diameter measurements, graft appearance and patency rate (PR), thrombus, stenosis and collateral vessel formation were evaluated by B-mode ultrasound, audio and color flow Doppler. Graft and regenerated vessels morphologic evaluation was performed by scanning electronic microscopy (SEM), histopathological and immunohistochemical analysis. All PVA/Dx grafts could maintain a similar or higher PR and systolic / diastolic laminar blood flow velocities were similar to ePTFE grafts. CD14 (macrophages) and α-actin (smooth muscle) staining presented similar results in PVA/Dx/MSCs and ePTFE graft groups. Fibrosis layer was lower and endothelial cells were only detected at graft-artery transitions where it was added the MSCs. In conclusion, PVA/Dx graft can be an excellent scaffold candidate for vascular reconstruction, including clinic mechanically challenging applications, such as SDVGs, especially when associated to MSCs-based therapies to promote higher endothelialization and lower fibrosis of the vascular prosthesis, but also higher PR values.

Allergological evaluation of a dog population in a veterinary immuno-allergology consultation: What correlates in a canine model

Introduction: Allergic dermatitis (AD) is the most common canine pruritic condition in veterinary dermatology. Allergic dermatitis to flea bites presents the highest prevalence, followed by atopic dermatitis and food AD. This study aimed to identify possible correlation between data from clinical signs, intradermal tests (IDT) and specific IgE levels, which are used in dog AD assessment. Methods: Fifty five dogs from the Veterinary Hospital of the University of Évora (Portugal) and Rof Codina University Hospital (Lugo, Spain) outpatient consultations were studied by means of clinical inquiry, IDT and specific IgE determination. Thirty five of the patients belonged to predisposed breeds, 30 were females and 25 males. Forty one (74%) were indoor. Results: In 82% of cases first clinical signs appeared before the age of 3 years and 24% even before 1 year old. In 70% of the individuals clinical signs included itching, which was generalized in 66%, with 78% of paw licking and chewing. Clinical profile showed seasonal worsening in 64% of cases. From the 69.1% of dogs already presenting with dermatitis, 50% also presented external otitis and 28.9% self-inflicted alopecia. "Intense itching" was found in 10.5%, "medium itching" in 81.6% and “mild itching” in 5.26% of the patients. Prevalence of positive IDT was 37.3 % to Lep d, 29.41% to Der f, 27.5% to Der p, 25.5% to Dac g and 21.6% to Malassezia sp. From the 37 dogs submitted to food IDT, 40.5% revealed positive to beef, 27% to chicken, 27% to porc and 5.4% to lamb. Specific IgE > 150 EAU was found in 84% of dogs to indoor allergen sources and in 68% to pollens. A negative correlation was found between an outdoor life and the intensity (p = 0.033) and precocity (p = 0.026) of clinical signs. Sensitization to pollens was found positively correlated with the seasonality of clinical signs (p = 0.001) and the positivity for Dac g (p = 0.007). The prevalence of chronic otitis correlated positively with alopecia and reactivity to Lep d (p = 0.008), Plantago lanceolata (p = 0.026) and Platanus acerifolia (p = 0.017). There was no correlation between the results of ITD and specific IgE. Conclusion: We can conclude that correlation between different clinical signs and positive testing for some allergenic sources may occur, as well as between sensitization to pollens and the beginning, the intensity and the seasonality of dog patient clinical signs.