Favourable areas for expansion and reintroduction of Iberian lynx accounting for distribution trends and genetic diversity of the European rabbit

Although on a local scale Iberian lynx distribution is determined by the availability of prey rabbits, recent modelling analyses have uncovered broad-scale disagreements between these two species’ distribution trends. These analyses showed also that the lynx had become restricted to only a fraction of the rabbit’s genetic diversity, and that this could be jeopardising its survival in the face of environmental hazards and uncertainty. In the present paper, a follow-up was carried out through the building of lynx and rabbit distribution models based on the most recent Spanish mammal atlas. Environmental favourability values for lynx and rabbit were positively correlated within the lynx’s current distribution area, but they were negatively correlated within the total Spanish area where lynx used to occur in the 1980’s. Environmental favourability for rabbits was significantly higher where lynx maintains reproductive populations than where it recently disappeared, indicating that rabbit favourability plays an important role and can be a good predictor of lynx persistence. The lynx and rabbit models were extrapolated to predict favourable areas for both species in Spain as well as in Portugal, on the original scale of the distribution data (10x10 km) and on a 100 times finer spatial resolution (1x1 km). The lynx and rabbit models were also combined through fuzzy logic to forecast the potential for lynx occurrence incorporating information on favourable areas for its main prey. Several areas are proposed as favourable for lynx expansion or re-introduction,

European lampreys: new insights on postglacial colonization, gene flow and speciation.

Ice ages are known to be the most dominant palaeoclimatic feature occurring on Earth, producing severe climatic oscillations and consequently shaping the distribution and the population structure of several species. Lampreys constitute excellent models to study the colonization of freshwater systems, as they commonly appear in pairs of closely related species of anadromous versus freshwater resident adults, thus having the ability to colonize new habitats, through the anadromous species, and establish freshwater resident derivates. We used 10 microsatellite loci to investigate the spatial structure, patterns of gene flow and migration routes of Lampetra populations in Europe. We sampled 11 populations including the migratory L. fluviatilis and four resident species, L. planeri, L. alavariensis, L. auremensis and L. lusitanica, the last three endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. In this southern glacial refugium almost all sampled populations represent a distinct genetic cluster, showing high levels of allopatric differentiation, reflecting long periods of isolation. As result of their more recent common ancestor, populations from northern Europe are less divergent among them, they are represented by fewer genetic clusters, and there is evidence of strong recent gene flow among populations. These previously glaciated areas from northern Europe may have been colonized from lampreys expanding out of the Iberian refugia. The pair L. fluviatilis/L. planeri is apparently at different stages of speciation in different locations, showing evidences of high reproductive isolation in the southern refugium, and low differentiation in the north.