New measures for assessing model equilibrium and prediction mismatch in species distribution models

Models based on species distributions are widely used and serve important purposes in ecology, biogeography and conservation. Their continuous predictions of environmental suitability are commonly converted into a binary classification of predicted (or potential) presences and absences, whose accuracy is then evaluated through a number of measures that have been the subject of recent reviews. We propose four additional measures that analyse observation-prediction mismatch from a different angle – namely, from the perspective of the predicted rather than the observed area – and add to the existing toolset of model evaluation methods. We explain how these measures can complete the view provided by the existing measures, allowing further insights into distribution model predictions. We also describe how they can be particularly useful when using models to forecast the spread of diseases or of invasive species and to predict modifications in species’ distributions under climate and land-use change

Convergence time to equilibrium distributions of autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs

We present some estimates of the time of convergence to the equilibrium distribution in autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs, with ergodic stochastic adjacency matrices, using the eigenvalues of these matrices. On this way we generalize previous results from several authors, that only considered reversible matrices.

Homotheties and topology of tangent sphere bundles

We prove a Theorem on homotheties between two given tangent sphere bundles SrM of a Riemannian manifold (M,g) of dim ≥ 3, assuming different variable radius functions r and weighted Sasaki metrics induced by the conformal class of g. New examples are shown of manifolds with constant positive or with constant negative scalar curvature which are not Einstein. Recalling results on the associated almost complex structure I^G and symplectic structure ω^G on the manifold TM , generalizing the well-known structure of Sasaki by admitting weights and connections with torsion, we compute the Chern and the Stiefel-Whitney characteristic classes of the manifolds TM and SrM.

Predictions of J integral and tensile strength of clay/epoxy nanocomposites material using phase field model

We predict macroscopic fracture related material parameters of fully exfoliated clay/epoxy nano- composites based on their fine scale features. Fracture is modeled by a phase field approach which is implemented as user subroutines UEL and UMAT in the commercial finite element software Abaqus. The phase field model replaces the sharp discontinuities with a scalar damage field representing the diffuse crack topology through controlling the amount of diffusion by a regularization parameter. Two different constitutive models for the matrix and the clay platelets are used; the nonlinear coupled system con- sisting of the equilibrium equation and a diffusion-type equation governing the phase field evolution are solved via a NewtoneRaphson approach. In order to predict the tensile strength and fracture toughness of the clay/epoxy composites we evaluated the J integral for different specimens with varying cracks. The effect of different geometry and material parameters, such as the clay weight ratio (wt.%) and the aspect ratio of clay platelets are studied.