Crossing frontiers between tourism and demography. An empirical analysis based on European travellers’ behaviour

This paper aims to establish possible tourism demand scenarios of European travellers to Portugal based on the relationship with changing population structures. A combination of the EuROBAROMETER report 370 (“Attitudes of Europeans towards Tourism in 2013”) and the cohort-component method for population projections will allow the development of different possible tourism demand scenarios. Following the European report, individuals who travelled in 2013 were most likely to live in a household with two or more individuals. Thus, if elderly couples are together till later in their life and in better physiological shape, it is possible that the number of elderly individuals travelling for tourism purposes will increase in the near future. If we can expect tourists from developing countries to be younger due to their demographic dynamics than those from developed countries, where the ageing population is growing fast, we can expect that the percentage of the elderly among tourists will increase. Furthermore, the 2013 European report found that the combination of socio-demographic variables, such as, age, population, gender, household dimension, country of residence and trip purpose explained tourism demand scenarios for Portugal, confirming that seniors and families evidence a paramount sense of importance for the destination. In the literature there is a lack of discussion about the effects of demography in the future and the role of an ageing population in tourism demand choice patterns. We aim to contribute to filling this gap. Consequently, we strongly believe that this paper contributes to the literature by introducing a new field of discussion about the importance of demographic changes in shaping travel trends.

Do comunismo à União Europeia: 20 anos que mudaram a história política e económica da Bulgária: Uma abordagem pela teoria e prática da condicionalidade

O mecanismo da condicionalidade pode ser considerado como um dos sucessos da UE na avaliação da forma como este afectou os processos de transição nos países pós-comunistas, em particular no caso dos países envolvidos no Quinto Alargamento. Este trabalho avalia a importância do mecanismo da condicionalidade na região da Europa de Leste, buscando analisar as políticas da UE em relação à Bulgária no período de 20 anos de difícil transição de um sistema comunista planificado para uma economia de mercado. Avaliamos também as políticas europeias de pré-adesão e as condições de adesão. Além disso, prestamos ainda atenção ao fenómeno do mecanismo da condicionalidade específico da UE, como tal, comparamos o seu impacto com os mecanismos do FMI e do Banco Mundial. Concluímos com a tentativa de fornecer alguns elementos sobre a utilidade prática do mecanismo de condicionalidade no Sudeste da Europa, definindo as suas principais realizações, bem como os problemas enfrentados. Através de uma revisão da literatura disponível, e adoptando uma perspectiva histórica, procuramos avaliar também as novas responsabilidades que a Bulgária assumiu ao alargar a fronteira exterior da UE e as consequências que daí decorreram para as relações políticas e económicas com os países vizinhos. /ABSTRACT: The conditionality mechanism can be considered one of the successes of the EU when estimated its influence over the transition process in the post-communist countries, especially for the countries involved in the Fifth Enlargement. This study evaluates the significance of the mechanism of conditionality in the region of Eastern Europe, analyzing the policies of the EU for Bulgaria during the 20 years of difficult transition from a planned communist system to a market economy. The European policies of pre-accession and the accession conditions are evaluated. Also, it pays attention to the phenomenon of the conditionality mechanism specific for EU, comparing its impact with the mechanisms of the IMF and World Bank. And concludes with an attempt to provide some elements about how useful has been the conditionality mechanism in South East Europe, defining the main achievements and difficulties that it faces. Having a look at the available literature and also reviewing it from historical point of view, it's evaluated the new responsibilities that Bulgaria assumed after extending the external frontiers of EU and the consequences for the political and economic relations with neighbor countries.

Crossing frontiers between tourism and demography. An empirical analysis based on European travellers’ behaviour

This paper aims to establish possible tourism demand scenarios of European travellers to Portugal based on the relationship with changing population structures. A combination of the EUROBAROMETER report 370 (“Attitudes of Europeans towards Tourism in 2013”) and the cohort-component method for population projections will allow the development of different possible tourism demand scenarios. Following the European report, individuals who travelled in 2013 were most likely to live in a household with two or more individuals. Thus, if elderly couples are together till later in their life and in better physiological shape, it is possible that the number of elderly individuals travelling for tourism purposes will increase in the near future. If we can expect tourists from developing countries to be younger due to their demographic dynamics than those from developed countries, where the ageing population is growing fast, we can expect that the percentage of the elderly among tourists will increase. Furthermore, the 2013 European report found that the combination of socio-demographic variables, such as, age, population, gender, household dimension, country of residence and trip purpose explained tourism demand scenarios for Portugal, confirming that seniors and families evidence a paramount sense of importance for the destination. In the literature there is a lack of discussion about the effects of demography in the future and the role of an ageing population in tourism demand choice patterns. We aim to contribute to filling this gap. Consequently, we strongly believe that this paper contributes to the literature by introducing a new field of discussion about the importance of demographic changes in shaping travel trends.