Applying fuzzy logic to comparative distribution modelling: a case study with two sympatric amphibians.

We modelled the distributions of two toads (Bufo bufo and Epidalea calamita) in the Iberian Peninsula using the favourability function, which makes predictions directly comparable for different species and allows fuzzy logic operations to relate different models. The fuzzy intersection between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of both species simultaneously, was compared with another favourability model built on the presences shared by both species. The fuzzy union between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of any of the two species, was compared with another favourabilitymodel based on the presences of either or both of them. The fuzzy intersections between favourability for each species and the complementary of favourability for the other (corresponding to the logical operation “A and not B”) were compared with models of exclusive presence of one species versus the exclusive presence of the other. The results of modelling combined species data were highly similar to those of fuzzy logic operations between individual models, proving fuzzy logic and the favourability function valuable for comparative distribution modelling. We highlight several advantages of fuzzy logic over other forms of combining distribution models, including the possibility to combine multiple species models for management and conservation planning.

Relative effect of food supplementation and natural resources on female red deer distribution in a Mediterranean ecosystem

Supplementary feeding is a widespread game management practice in several red deer (Cervus elaphus) populations, with important potential consequences on the biology of this species. InMediterranean ecosystems food supplementation occurs in the rutting period, when it may change mating system characteristics. We studied the role of food supplementation relative to natural resources in the spatial distribution, aggregation, and mean harem size of females in Iberian red deer (Cervus elaphus hispanicus) during the rut. We studied 30 red deer populations of southwestern Spain, 63% of which experienced supplementary feeding. Using multivariate spatial analyses we found that food supplementation affected distribution of females in 95% of the populations in which it occurred. Green meadows present during the mating season acted as an important natural resource influencing female distribution. Additionally, the level of female aggregation and mean harem size were significantly higher in those populations in which food supplementation determined female distribution than in populations in which female distribution did not depend on supplementary feeding. Because female aggregation and mean harem size are key elements in sexual selection, supplementary feeding may constitute an important anthropogenic element with potential evolutionary implications for populations of Iberian red deer.

Assessment of environment, land management, and spatial variables on recent changes in montado land cover in southern Portugal

Montado decline has been reported since the end of the nineteenth century in southern Portugal and increased markedly during the 1980s. Consensual reports in the literature suggest that this decline is due to a number of factors, such as environmental constraints, forest diseases, inappropriate management, and socioeconomic issues. An assessment on the pattern of montado distribution was conducted to reveal how the extent of land management, environmental variables, and spatial factors contributed to montado area loss in southern Portugal from 1990 to 2006. A total of 14 independent variables, presumably related to montado loss, were grouped into three sets: environmental variables, land management variables, and spatial variables. From 1990 to 2006, approximately 90,054 ha disappeared in the montado area, with an estimated annual regression rate of 0.14 % year-1. Variation partitioning showed that the land management model accounted for the highest percentage of explained variance (51.8 %), followed by spatial factors (44.6 %) and environmental factors (35.5 %). These results indicate that most variance in the large-scale distribution of recent montado loss is due to land management, either alone or in combination with environmental and spatial factors. The full GAM model showed that different livestock grazing is one of the most important variables affecting montado loss. This suggests that optimum carrying capacity should decrease to 0.18–0.60 LU ha-1 for livestock grazing in montado under current ecological conditions in southern Portugal.

Spatial distribution patterns of the non-native European catfish, Silurus glanis, from multiple online sources - a case study for the River Tagus (Iberian Peninsula)

Effective management of invasive fishes depends on the availability of updated information about their distribution and spatial dispersion. Forensic analysis was performed using online and published data on the European catfish, Silurus glanis L., a recent invader in the Tagus catchment (Iberian Peninsula). Eighty records were obtained mainly from anglers’ fora and blogs, and more recently from www.youtube.com. Since the first record in 1998, S. glanis expanded its geographic range by 700 km of river network, occurring mainly in reservoirs and in high-order reaches. Human-mediated and natural dispersal events were identified, with the former occurring during the first years of invasion and involving movements of >50 km. Downstream dispersal directionality was predominant. The analysis of online data from anglers was found to provide useful information on the distribution and dispersal patterns of this non-native fish, and is potentially applicable as a preliminary, exploratory assessment tool for other non-native fishes.

The influence of forest management on bird communities of portuguese montados

The world distribution of cork oak Quercus suber and holm oak Q. rotundifolia is basically restricted to the western Mediterranean basin. These two evergreen oaks are the base of the Portuguese montado and the Spanish dehesa. This thesis aims to analyse how bird communities of the montado are influenced by management practices. We used different approaches to study this relationship, and to evaluate which features are responsible for species distribution in different typologies of montado. First, we reviewed the concept of montado in order to better understand the system and to set thresholds on what can be considered as montado. Afterwards, we studied the elements that promote higher species diversity and individual species, or group of species, that can act as indicators of High Nature Value for montados. Finally, we evaluated how the bird communities are structured, and the influence of the main management actions (e.g. cattle and cork exploitation) on those communities; Resumo: A distribuição mundial do sobreiro Quercus suber e da azinheira Quercus rotundifolia é praticamente restrita à bacia do Mediterrâneo. Estas duas espécies de carvalhos são a base dos montados em Portugal e das dehesas em Espanha. No âmbito desta tese analisamos como as comunidades de aves do montado são influenciadas pela gestão florestal. Para este efeito usámos diferentes abordagens e avaliámos quais as características do montado responsáveis pela distribuição das espécies ao longo das suas diferentes tipologias. Fizemos uma revisão do conceito de montado e proposemos uma definição para o sistema, englobando a sua multifuncionalidade. Estudámos os elementos singulares que promovem a diversidade de aves e que podem ser simultaneamente indicadores de áreas de Alto Valor Natural (HNV). Por fim, avaliámos qual a influência da gestão (p. ex. pastoreio e descortiçamento) na estruturação das comunidades de aves.