Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: The case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain

Transferring distribution models between different geographical areas may be problematic, as the performance of models outside their original scope is hard to predict. A modelling procedure is needed that gets the gist of the environmental descriptors of a distribution area, without either overfitting to the training data or overestimating the species’ distribution potential.We tested the transferability power of the favourability function, a generalized linear model, on the distribution of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the Iberian territories of Portugal and Spain.We also tested the effects of two of the main potential constraints on model transferability: the analysed ranges of the predictor variables, and the completeness of the species distribution data. We modelled 10 km×10km presence/absence data from Portugal and Spain separately, extrapolated each model to the other country, and compared predictions with observations. The Spanish model, despite arguably containing more false absences, showed good predictive ability in Portugal. The Portuguese model, whose predictors ranged between only a subset of the values observed in Spain, overestimated desman distribution when transferred.We discuss possible reasons for this differential model behaviour, and highlight the importance of this kind of models for prediction and conservation applications

Cross-shore transport in a daily varying upwelling regime: A case study of barnacle larvae on the southwestern Iberian coast.

With favored offshore and downstream advection, the question of which physical mechanism may promote onshore transport of larvae in upwelling systems is of central interest. We have conducted a semi-realistic high resolution (0.25 km) numerical study of Lagrangian transports across the inner-shelf under upwelling-favorable wind forcing conditions, focusing on the shelf area of the Southwestern Portuguese coast, in the lee of Cape Sines. We add our findings to several years of biological observations of C. montagui, a planktonic species with higher recruitment during the upwelling peak timely with the daylight flood. Simulations cover a fifteen days period during the summer of 2006. We focused on Spring and Neap tide periods and observed upfront differences between simulations and the in situ observa- tions. However, the model is capable of representing the main dynamics of the region, namely the re- petitive character of the inner-shelf currents. We find that the cross-shore flow varies significantly in the daily cycle, and locally within a scale of a few kilometers in association with local topography and the presence of the cape. We consider the region immediately in the lee of the cape to be an upwelling shadow where the larvae became retained, and found that tidally tied migration proves beneficial for successful recruitment during the spring tides period. Our work suggested that the wind is not the only mechanism responsible for the daily variability of the cross-shore exchange. However, its sharp reversal at midday is critical for the advection of larvae towards the coast.