Changes in trophic ecology of fish assemblages after no take Marine Protected Area designation in the southwestern coast of Portugal.

Changes in fish assemblage structure caused by human activities, such as fishing, can alter trophic relations in fish assemblages. In this context, Marine Protected Areas (MPA) are efficient tools for habitat recovery and ideal environments for evaluating changes on the trophic structure resulting from human activities. The present work targeted fish assemblages from two no-take MPAs from the northern half of South Alentejo and Costa Vicentina Marine Park, established in 2011. Previous works reported positive effects on local fish assemblages after no-take MPA designation, and it is therefore important to further study its impact on local fish assemblages, especially concerning trophic interactions. Local fish assemblages were sampled (summer 2011, winter 2012, summer 2013 and winter 2013) using trammel nets. Diets were characterized and digestive tract contents of the 10 most abundant fish species were compared between the no take MPAs (treatment) and adjacent areas (controls), and changes evaluated as a function of time since protection. Results revealed significant differences between the diets of fish from protected and non protected areas, with crabs being the preferential prey in both protected and control areas but being more ingested outside the no-take areas. However, these differences were evident since the beginning of the study. Fish assemblages from the northern area presented significantly larger niche breadth and significantly increasing with time. This way, the main effects of no-take MPA implementation were directly visible on the niche breadth but did not directly impact the diet composition of the sampled fish assemblages, contributing however to reinforce the already naturally existent differences. This work provides important information regarding the effect of changes in the fish assemblage caused by MPA designation on the trophic ecology of fish.

Changes in fish assemblage structure after implementation of Marine Protected Areas in the south western coast of Portugal.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are increasingly being recommended as management tools for biodiversity conservation and fisheries. With the purpose of protecting the region's biodiversity and prevent the over exploitation of marine resources, in February 2011 the no-take MPAs of Ilha do Pessegueiro and Cabo Sard~ao were implemented within the “Parque Natural do Sudoeste Alentejano e Costa Vicentina “(PNSACV) Marine Park, south western coast of Portugal. As such, commercial and recreational fishing became prohibited in these areas. In order to evaluate the effects of these no-take MPAs, the structure of their fish assemblages and of adjacent control areas without fishing restrictions were studied between 2011 (immediately after implementation) and 2013 (two years after implementation). A total of 4 sampling campaigns were conducted (summer 2011, winter 2012, summer 2013 and winter 2013) using trammel nets and bottom trawl. Ichthyofaunal assemblages from the no-take MPAs (treatment) were compared with adjacent areas (controls) and changes evaluated as a function of time since protection. Results revealed significant increase in fish abundance after the implementation of the no-take MPAs. Furthermore, significant differences in the structure of fish assemblages (abundance and fish size) between protected and neighbouring areas were rapidly observed upon the implementation of the no-take MPAs. In addition, specimens of larger size occurred more frequently within Ilha do Pessegueiro no-take MPA in the last year of the study. Overall, despite the young age of these no-take MPAs, changes on the structure of their fish assemblages were already evident after only two years of protection, indicating that management measures such as MPA designation may play an important role to promote fisheries sustainable exploitation as well as to protect species with conservation interest.

Assessment of environment, land management, and spatial variables on recent changes in montado land cover in southern Portugal

Montado decline has been reported since the end of the nineteenth century in southern Portugal and increased markedly during the 1980s. Consensual reports in the literature suggest that this decline is due to a number of factors, such as environmental constraints, forest diseases, inappropriate management, and socioeconomic issues. An assessment on the pattern of montado distribution was conducted to reveal how the extent of land management, environmental variables, and spatial factors contributed to montado area loss in southern Portugal from 1990 to 2006. A total of 14 independent variables, presumably related to montado loss, were grouped into three sets: environmental variables, land management variables, and spatial variables. From 1990 to 2006, approximately 90,054 ha disappeared in the montado area, with an estimated annual regression rate of 0.14 % year-1. Variation partitioning showed that the land management model accounted for the highest percentage of explained variance (51.8 %), followed by spatial factors (44.6 %) and environmental factors (35.5 %). These results indicate that most variance in the large-scale distribution of recent montado loss is due to land management, either alone or in combination with environmental and spatial factors. The full GAM model showed that different livestock grazing is one of the most important variables affecting montado loss. This suggests that optimum carrying capacity should decrease to 0.18–0.60 LU ha-1 for livestock grazing in montado under current ecological conditions in southern Portugal.

A controversial debate between financial speculation and changes in agricultural commodity spot prices

Some research works state that speculation with agricultural commodities on the futures market has risen agricultural commodity spot prices. This research work analyzes the causal relationships between spot prices of corn, wheat, and soybean and agricultural commodity futures trading activities. These causal relationships between agricultural commodity spot prices and financial variables are tested for Granger-causality. Model results show that causal relationships have been found among changes in “volume traded” and “open positions” of futures contracts and changes in spot prices for corn. These results do not show that financial speculation might be a major driver of rising agricultural commodity prices.

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.