3 resultados para Bayesian hierarchical linear model

em Repositório Científico da Universidade de Évora - Portugal


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We present a multiscale model bridging length and time scales from molecular to continuum levels with the objective of predicting the yield behavior of amorphous glassy polyethylene (PE). Constitutive pa- rameters are obtained from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, decreasing the requirement for ad- hoc experiments. Consequently, we achieve: (1) the identification of multisurface yield functions; (2) the high strain rate involved in MD simulations is upscaled to continuum via quasi-static simulations. Validation demonstrates that the entire multisurface yield functions can be scaled to quasi-static rates where the yield stresses are possibly predicted by a proposed scaling law; (3) a hierarchical multiscale model is constructed to predict temperature and strain rate dependent yield strength of the PE.

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Transferring distribution models between different geographical areas may be problematic, as the performance of models outside their original scope is hard to predict. A modelling procedure is needed that gets the gist of the environmental descriptors of a distribution area, without either overfitting to the training data or overestimating the species’ distribution potential.We tested the transferability power of the favourability function, a generalized linear model, on the distribution of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the Iberian territories of Portugal and Spain.We also tested the effects of two of the main potential constraints on model transferability: the analysed ranges of the predictor variables, and the completeness of the species distribution data. We modelled 10 km×10km presence/absence data from Portugal and Spain separately, extrapolated each model to the other country, and compared predictions with observations. The Spanish model, despite arguably containing more false absences, showed good predictive ability in Portugal. The Portuguese model, whose predictors ranged between only a subset of the values observed in Spain, overestimated desman distribution when transferred.We discuss possible reasons for this differential model behaviour, and highlight the importance of this kind of models for prediction and conservation applications

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The Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Miller is a species from the Cactaceae family with the center of origin and domestication in central Mexico. This species introduction in the Iberia Peninsula occurred, probably, by the end of the 15th century, after the discovery of America, spreading later throughout the Mediterranean basin. In Portugal, O. ficus-indica is located, usually, with a typical ruderal behavior, at the edge of roads and paths. In Portugal, as in other Mediterranean regions, inlands areas are under severe draught during extensive summers, in particular, and global warming is expected to affect them deeply in the near future. O. ficus-indica, by its morpho-physiological characteristics and multiple economic uses, represent an alternative crop for those regions. Sixteen Portuguese O. ficus indica ecotypes and two ‘Italian’ cultivars ("Gialla" and "Bianca") were evaluated for plant vigor and biomass production, by nondestructive methods, in the two years following planting. Biomass production and plant vigor were measured by estimating cladode number, cladode area and fresh weight per plant. Linear models to predict the area of cladodes and fresh weight per plant were previously established using a biometric analysis of 180 cladodes. It was not possible to establish an accurate linear model for dry matter using non-destructive estimation. Significant differences were found among populations in the studied biomass-related parameters, and different groups were unfolded. A group of four Portuguese ecotypes outperformed in terms of biomass production, comparable with the “Gialla” cultivar. This group could be used to start a breeding program with the objective of deploy material for animal feeding, biomass and fruit production. Nevertheless, the ‘Gialla’ cultivar showed the best performance, achieving the highest biomass related parameters, not surprisingly for it is an improved plant material.