New measures for assessing model equilibrium and prediction mismatch in species distribution models

Models based on species distributions are widely used and serve important purposes in ecology, biogeography and conservation. Their continuous predictions of environmental suitability are commonly converted into a binary classification of predicted (or potential) presences and absences, whose accuracy is then evaluated through a number of measures that have been the subject of recent reviews. We propose four additional measures that analyse observation-prediction mismatch from a different angle – namely, from the perspective of the predicted rather than the observed area – and add to the existing toolset of model evaluation methods. We explain how these measures can complete the view provided by the existing measures, allowing further insights into distribution model predictions. We also describe how they can be particularly useful when using models to forecast the spread of diseases or of invasive species and to predict modifications in species’ distributions under climate and land-use change

On polynomials with given Hilbert function and applications

Using Macaulay's correspondence we study the family of Artinian Gorenstein local algebras with fixed symmetric Hilbert function decomposition. As an application we give a new lower bound for the dimension of cactus varieties of the third Veronese embedding. We discuss the case of cubic surfaces, where interesting phenomena occur.

Effect of trees in the soil nutrient concentration and pasture produtivity in Mediterranean silvo-pastoral systems

Silvo-pastoral are mixed systems of trees and grass, which have been proposed as a means to extend the benefits of forest to farmed land. Agro-forestry systems under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions, called montados in Portugal and dehesas in Spain, cover substantial areas in the world. These silvo-pastoral systems are the most extensive European agro-forestry system, as they cover 3.5–4.0 Mha in Spain and Portugal. Long-term studies are essential to assess the magnitude of the temporal nutrient flow dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems and to understand the response of these systems to fertilizer management. In order to implement the conservation task and recovery of resources through silvo-pastoral systems it is necessary to know and correct potential limiting factors, especially the soil factor, and this requires agronomic knowledge as well as the implmentation of the available new technologies. In this context, this task aims at a better understanding of the contribution of the two components of montado ecosystem (trees and herbaceous vegetation) on the soil nutrient and water dynamics, that allow for the interpretation of the variability of pasture dry matter yield and help the farmer in the management of tree density. Collaterally the task will evaluate and calibrate new technologies that simplify the monitoring of soil, grassland, trees and grazing animals.