Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.

Productivity and chemical composition of food-type soybeans sown on different dates.

ABSTRACT. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of different sowing dates on the yield, 100-grain weight, oil, protein and isoflavone contents of food-type soybean breeding lines UEL 110, UEL 115 and UEL 123 and a cultivar BRS 257. The materials were seeded on four sowing dates, and the experiment was conducted in a randomized block design with four replications. The productivity and 100- grain weight varied with the sowing dates and soybean genotypes. The protein content ranged from 36.40 to 42.44%, and the oil content ranged from 18.29 to 22.71%. No significant interaction was found between the genotype and sowing dates for the protein content. The isoflavone content also varied with the sowing dates and soybean genotypes. The cultivar BRS 257 had the highest isoflavone content, including the β- glucoside, malonyl glucoside and aglycones forms. The different sowing dates influenced the productivity, 100-grain weight, oil and protein content and isoflavone levels. Higher temperatures and lower rainfall during the grain filling decreased the productivity and isoflavone content and increased the protein content. For all sowing dates, the BRS 257 soybean food-type cultivar showed the highest isoflavone content, indicating that the effect of genotype is more important. Keywords: soybean, oil, protein, isoflavones. RESUMO. O objetivo deste trabalho foi investigar o efeito das diferentes épocas de semeadura na produtividade, massa de 100 grãos, teor de proteínas, óleo e isoflavonas de linhagens de soja tipo alimento UEL 110, UEL 115 e UEL 123 e cultivar BRS 257. O material foi semeado em quatro épocas de semeadura e o experimento foi conduzido em blocos casualizados com quatro repetições. A produtividade e a massa de 100 grãos variaram com a época de semeadura e com os diferentes genótipos. O teor de proteínas variou de 36,40 a 42,44% e o de óleo de 18,29 a 22,71%. Não foi encontrada interação entre genótipo e épocas de semeadura para o teor de proteínas. O teor de isoflavonas variou com as épocas de semeadura e com os genótipos. A cultivar BRS 257 apresentou maior teor de β-glicosídeos, malonil-glicosídeos e agliconas. As diferentes épocas de semeadura influenciam a produtividade, massa de 100 grãos, conteúdo de óleo, proteínas e isoflavonas. Altas temperaturas e baixas precipitações durante o enchimento dos grãos reduzem a produtividade e teor de isoflavonas e aumentam o teor de proteínas. A cultivar BRS 257 apresenta o maior teor de isoflavonas indicando que o efeito genético é mais importante.