Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.

Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture-based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by agro-meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availa bility index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963?2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios interms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013?2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043?2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation intemperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual productionunder future climate scenarios was predicted toincrease by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central-west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with largerincreases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.

Mineralogical changes caused by grape production in a regosol from subtropical Brazilian climate.

Purpose Inadequate soil use and management practices promote commonly negative impacts on the soil constituents and their properties, with consequences to ecosystems. As the soil mineralogy can be permanently altered due to soil use, this approach can be used as a tool to monitor the anthropogenic pressure. The objective of the present study was to assess the mineralogical alterations of a Brazilian regosol used for grape production for 40 years in comparison with a soil under natural vegetation (forest), aiming to discuss anthropogenic pressure on soils. Material and methods Soil samples were collected at depths of 0?0.20 and 0.20?0.40 m from vineyard production and natural vegetation sites. Physical and chemical parameters were analysed by classic approaches. Mineralogical analyses were carried out on <2 mm, silt and clay fractions. Clay minerals were estimated by the relative percentage of peak surface area of the X-ray patterns. Results and discussion Grape production reduced the organic matter content by 28% and the clay content by 23% resulting in a decreasing cation exchange capacity. A similar clay fraction was observed in both soils, containing kaolinite, illite/mica and vermiculite with hydroxy-Al polymers interlayered. Neither gibbsite nor chlorite was found. However, in the soil under native vegetation, the proportion of illite (79 %) was higher than vermiculite (21 %). Whereas, in the soil used for grape production during 40 years, the formation of vermiculite was promoted. Conclusions Grape production alters the proportions of soil constituents of the regosol, reducing clay fraction and organic matter contents, as well as promoting changes in the soil clay minerals with the formation of vermiculite to the detriment of illite, which suggests weathering acceleration and susceptibility to anthropogenic pressure. Recommendations and perspectives Ecosystems in tropical and subtropical climates can be more easily and permanently altered due to anthropogenic pressure, mainly as a consequence of a great magnitude of phenomena such as temperature amplitude and rainfall that occurs in these regions. This is more worrying when soils are located on steep grades with a high anthropogenic pressure, like regosols in Southern Brazil. Thus, this study suggests that changes in soil mineralogy can be used as an important tool to assess anthropogenic pressure in ecosystems and that soil quality maintenance should be a priority in sensible landscapes to maintain the ecosystem quality.