Impacts of climate change and species distribution modelling: future scenarios to endangered species in South Brazil.

Earth climate has changed significantly in the last century and the different models indicate that it will continue to change over the next decades, even if the emission of greenhouse gases stop immediately. These changes have impact on different plant populations, as well as in the actual distribution of several species. As plants, in general, have a smaller capacity of dispersion compared with the animals it is likely that they will suffer the impacts of the climate change more intensively.

Impacts of climate change and species distribution modelling: future scenarios to endangered species in South Brazil.

2016

Evolution and challenges of dynamic global vegetation models for some aspects of plant physiology and elevated atmospheric CO2.

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) simulate surface processes such as the transfer of energy, water, CO2, and momentum between the terrestrial surface and the atmosphere, biogeochemical cycles, carbon assimilation by vegetation, phenology, and land use change in scenarios of varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations. DGVMs increase the complexity and the Earth system representation when they are coupled with atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs) or climate models. However, plant physiological processes are still a major source of uncertainty in DGVMs. The maximum velocity of carboxylation (Vcmax), for example, has a direct impact over productivity in the models. This parameter is often underestimated or imprecisely defined for the various plant functional types (PFTs) and ecosystems. Vcmax is directly related to photosynthesis acclimation (loss of response to elevated CO2), a widely known phenomenon that usually occurs when plants are subjected to elevated atmospheric CO2 and might affect productivity estimation in DGVMs. Despite this, current models have improved substantially, compared to earlier models which had a rudimentary and very simple representation of vegetation?atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we describe this evolution through generations of models and the main events that contributed to their improvements until the current state-of-the-art class of models. Also, we describe some main challenges for further improvements to DGVMs.

Energy balances in sugar cane, coffee and natural vegetation in the northeastern side of the São Paulo state, Brazil

Under land and climate change scenarios, agriculture has experienced water competitions among other sectors in the São Paulo state, Brazil. On the one hand, in several occasions, in the northeastern side of this state, nowadays sugar-cane is expanding, while coffee plantations are losing space. On the other hand, both crops have replaced the natural vegetation composed by Savannah and Atlantic Coastal Forest species. Under this dynamic situation, geosciences are valuable tools for evaluating the large-scale energy and mass exchanges between these diffe rent agro-ecosystems and the lower atmosphere. For quantification of the energy balance components in these mixed agro-ecosystems, the bands 1 and 2 from the MODIS product MOD13Q1 we re used throughout SA FER (Surface Algorithm for Evapotranspiration Retrieving) algorithm, which was applied together with a net of 12 automatic weather stations, during the year 2015 in the main sugar cane and coffee growing regions, located at the no rtheastern side of the state. The fraction of the global solar radiation (R G ) transformed into net radiation (Rn) was 52% for sugar cane and 53% for both, coffee and natural vegetation. The respective annual fractions of Rn used as λ E were 0.68, 0.87 and 0.77, while for the sensible heat (H) fluxes they were 0.27, 0.07 and 0.16. From April to July, heat advection raised λ E values above Rn promoting negative H, however these effects were much and less strong in coffee and sugar cane crop s, respectively. The smallest daily Rn fraction for all agro-ecosystems was for the soil heat flux (G), with averages of 5%, 6% and 7% in sugar cane, coffee and natural vegetation. From the energy balance analyses, we could conclude that, sugar-cane crop presented lower annual water consumption than that for coffee crop , what can be seen as an advantage in situations of water scarcity. However, the replacement of natural vegetation by su gar cane can contribute for warming th e environment, while when this occur with coffee crop there was noticed co oling conditions. The large scale modeling satisfactory results confirm the suitability of using MODIS products togeth er with weather stations to study the energy balance components in mixed agro-ecosystems under land-use and climate change conditions.