Genetic structure and mating type analysis of the Pyricularia oryzae population causing widespread epidemics in southern Brazil.

Blast is a major disease of rice in Brazil, the largest rice-producing country outside Asia. This study aimed to assess the genetic structure and mating-type frequency in a contemporary Pyricularia oryzae population, which caused widespread epidemics during the 2012/13 season in the Brazilian lowland subtropical region. Symptomatic leaves and panicles were sampled at flooded rice fields in the states of Rio Grande do Sul (RS, 34 fields) and Santa Catarina (SC, 21 fields). The polymorphism at ten simple sequence repeats (SSR or microsatellite) loci and the presence of MAT1-1 or MAT1-2 idiomorphs were assessed in a population comprised of 187 isolates. Only the MAT1-2 idiomorph was found and 162 genotypes were identified by the SSR analysis. A discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) of SSR data resolved four genetic groups, which were strongly associated with the cultivar of origin of the isolates. There was high level of genotypic diversity and moderate level of gene diversity regardless whether isolates were grouped in subpopulations based on geographic region, cultivar host or cultivar within region. While regional subpopulations were weakly differentiated, high genetic differentiation was found among subpopulations comprised of isolates from different cultivars. The data suggest that the rice blast pathogen population in southern Brazil is comprised of clonal lineages that are adapting to specific cultivar hosts. Farmers should avoid the use of susceptible cultivars over large areas and breeders should focus at enlarging the genetic basis of new cultivars.

Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.