Climate change and irrigation water requirement at Jaguaribe river basin, semi-arid northeast of Brazil.

Summary: Climate change has a potential to impact rainfall, temperature and air humidity, which have relation to plant evapotranspiration and crop water requirement. The purpose of this research is to assess climate change impacts on irrigation water demand, based on future scenarios derived from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), using boundary conditions of the HadCM3 submitted to a dynamic downscaling nested to the Hadley Centre regional circulation model HadRM3P. Monthly time series for average temperature and rainfall were generated for 1961-90 (baseline) and the future (2040). The reference evapotranspiration was estimated using monthly average temperature. Projected climate change impact on irrigation water demand demonstrated to be a result of evapotranspiration and rainfall trend. Impacts were mapped over the target region by using geostatistical methods. An increase of the average crop water needs was estimated to be 18.7% and 22.2% higher for 2040 A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Objective ? To analyze the climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements, using downscaling techniques of a climate change model, at the river basin scale. Method: The study area was delimited between 4º39?30? and 5º40?00? South and 37º35?30? and 38º27?00? West. The crop pattern in the target area was characterized, regarding type of irrigated crops, respective areas and cropping schedules, as well as the area and type of irrigation systems adopted. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) system (Jones et al., 2004) was used for generating climate predictions for the target area, using the boundary conditions of the Hadley Centre model HadCM3 (Johns et al., 2003). The considered time scale of interest for climate change impacts evaluation was the year of 2040, representing the period of 2025 to 2055. The output data from the climate model was interpolated, considering latitude/longitude, by applying ordinary kriging tools available at a Geographic Information System, in order to produce thematic maps.

Genetic parameters for carcass traits and body weight using a Bayesian approach in the Canchim cattle.

Correlation between genetic parameters and factors such as backfat thickness (BFT), rib eye area (REA), and body weight (BW) were estimated for Canchim beef cattle raised in natural pastures of Brazil. Data from 1648 animals were analyzed using multi-trait (BFT, REA, and BW) animal models by the Bayesian approach. This model included the effects of contemporary group, age, and individual heterozygosity as covariates. In addition, direct additive genetic and random residual effects were also analyzed. Heritability estimated for BFT (0.16), REA (0.50), and BW (0.44) indicated their potential for genetic improvements and response to selection processes. Furthermore, genetic correlations between BW and the remaining traits were high (P > 0.50), suggesting that selection for BW could improve REA and BFT. On the other hand, genetic correlation between BFT and REA was low (P = 0.39 ± 0.17), and included considerable variations, suggesting that these traits can be jointly included as selection criteria without influencing each other. We found that REA and BFT responded to the selection processes, as measured by ultrasound. Therefore, selection for yearling weight results in changes in REA and BFT.

Uso da espectroscopia de reflectância do infravermelho próximo (NIRS) para previsão da composição bromatológica de vagens de algaroba e palma forrageira.

Espécies forrageiras adaptadas às condições semiáridas são uma alternativa para reduzir os impactos negativos na cadeia produtiva de ruminantes da região Nordeste brasileira devido à sazonalidade na oferta de forragem, além de reduzir custo com o fornecimento de alimentos concentrados. Dentre as espécies, a vagem de algaroba (Prosopis juliflora SW D.C.) e palma forrageira (Opuntia e Nopalea) ganham destaque por tolerarem o déficit hídrico e produzirem em períodos onde a oferta de forragem está reduzida, além de apresentam bom valor nutricional e serem bem aceitas pelos animais. Porém, devido à variação na sua composição, seu uso na alimentação animal exige o conhecimento profundo da sua composição para a elaboração de dietas balanceadas. No entanto, devido ao custo e tempo para análise, os produtores não fazem uso da prática de análise da composição químico-bromatológica dos alimentos. Por isto, a espectroscopia de reflectância no infravermelho próximo (NIRS) representa uma importante alternativa aos métodos tradicionais. Objetivou-se com este estudo desenvolver e validar modelos de predição da composição bromatológica de vagem de algaroba e palma forrageira baseados em espectroscopia NIRS, escaneadas em dois modelos de equipamentos e com diferentes processamentos da amostra. Foram coletadas amostras de vagem de algaroba nos estados do Ceará, Bahia, Paraíba e Pernambuco, e amostras de palma forrageira nos estados do Ceará, Paraíba e Pernambuco, frescas (in natura) ou pré-secas e moídas. Para obtenção dos espectros utilizaram-se dois equipamentos NIR, Perten DA 7250 e FOSS 5000. Inicialmente os alimentos foram escaneados in natura em aparelho do modelo Perten, e, com o auxílio do software The Unscrambler 10.2 foi selecionado um grupo de amostras para o banco de calibração. As amostras selecionadas foram secas e moídas, e escaneadas novamente em equipamentos Perten e FOSS. Os valores dos parâmetros de referência foram obtidos por meio de metodologias tradicionalmente aplicadas em laboratório de nutrição animal para matéria seca (MS), matéria mineral (MM), matéria orgânica (MO), proteína bruta (PB), estrato etéreo (EE), fibra solúvel em detergente neutro (FDN), fibra solúvel em detergente ácido (FDA), hemicelulose (HEM) e digestibilidade in vitro da matéria seca (DIVMS). O desempenho dos modelos foi avaliado de acordo com os erros médios de calibração (RMSEC) e validação (RMSECV), coeficiente de determinação (R2 ) e da relação de desempenho de desvio dos modelos (RPD). A análise exploratória dos dados, por meio de tratamentos espectrais e análise de componentes principais (PCA), demonstraram que os bancos de dados eram similares entre si, dando segurança de desenvolver os modelos com todas as amostras selecionadas em um único modelo para cada alimento, algaroba e palma. Na avaliação dos resultados de referência, observou-se que a variação dos resultados para cada parâmetro corroboraram com os descritos na literatura. No desempenho dos modelos, aqueles desenvolvidos com pré-processamento da amostra (pré-secagem e moagem) se mostraram mais robustos do que aqueles construídos com amostras in natura. O aparelho NIRS Perten apresentou desempenho semelhante ao equipamento FOSS, apesar desse último cobrir uma faixa espectral maior e com intervalos de leituras menores. A técnica NIR, associada ao método de calibração multivariada de regressão por meio de quadrados mínimos (PLS), mostrou-se confiável para prever a composição químico-bromatológica de vagem de algaroba e da palma forrageira. Abstract: Forage species adapted to semi-arid conditions are an alternative to reduce the negative impacts in the feed supply for ruminants in the Brazilian Northeast region, due to seasonality in forage availability, as well as in the reducing of cost by providing concentrated feedstuffs. Among the species, mesquite pods (Prosopis juliflora SW DC) and spineless cactus (Opuntia and Nopalea) are highlighted for tolerating the drought and producion in periods where the forage is scarce, and have high nutritional value and also are well accepted by the animals. However, its use in animal diets requires a knowledge about its composition to prepare balanced diets. However, farmers usually do not use feed composition analysis, because their high cost and time-consuming. Thus, the Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy in the (NIRS) is an important alternative to traditional methods. The objective of this study to develop and validate predictive models of the chemical composition of mesquite pods and spineless cactus-based NIRS spectroscopy, scanned in two different spectrometers and sample processing. Mesquite pods samples were collected in the states of Ceará, Bahia, Paraiba and Pernambuco, and samples of forage cactus in the states of Ceará, Paraíba and Pernambuco. In order to obtain the spectra, it was used two NIR equipment: Perten DA 7250 and FOSS 5000. sSpectra of samples were initially obtained fresh (as received) using Perten instrument, and with The Unscrambler software 10.2, a group of subsamples was selected to model development, keeping out redundant ones. The selected samples were dried and ground, and scanned again in both Perten and FOSS instruments. The values of the reference analysis were obtained by methods traditionally applied in animal nutrition laboratory to dry matter (DM), mineral matter (MM), organic matter (OM), crude protein (CP), ether extract (EE), soluble neutral detergent fiber (NDF), soluble acid detergent fiber (ADF), hemicellulose ( HEM) and in vitro digestibility of dry matter (DIVDM). The performance of the models was evaluated according to the Root Mean Square Error of Calibration (RMSEC) and cross-validation (RMSECV), coefficient of determination (R2 ) and the deviation of Ratio of performance Deviation of the models (RPD). Exploratory data analysis through spectral treatments and principal component analysis (PCA), showed that the databases were similar to each other, and may be treated asa single model for each feed - mesquite pods and cactus. Evaluating the reference results, it was observed that the variation were similar to those reported in the literature. Comparing the preprocessing of samples, the performance ofthose developed with preprocessing (dried and ground) of the sample were more robust than those built with fresh samples. The NIRS Perten device performance similar to FOSS equipment, although the latter cover a larger spectral range and with lower readings intervals. NIR technology associate do multivariate techniques is reliable to predict the bromatological composition of mesquite pods and cactus.