Incorporating parameter uncertainty into quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply ‘plugged’ in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.

Ammonia emissions from a representative in-use fleet of vehicles in Guangzhou

Emission rates of ammonia (NH3) are reported for a fleet of 130 light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicles recruited in Guangzhou, China. NH3 measurements were performed using Nessler's Reagents spectrophotometry and nationwide standard chassis dynamometer test cycles required by Chinese EPA. Emissions of CO and NOx were also measured during these test cycles. Emission factors of NH3 were calculated for each type of vehicle and used to estimate the total emissions of NH3 from motor vehicles in Guangzhou (GZ) in 2009. Emission factors of NH3 show large variations among different categories of vehicles, with a range from 4 to 138 mg km-1. The average emissions of NH3 in Guangzhou in 2009 were estimated to be 983 t, with a range from 373 to 2136 t. In addition, it was found that vehicles with the highest NH3 emission rates possess the following characteristics: mediumand heavy-duty vehicles, certified with out-of-date emission standards, mid-range odometer readings, and higher CO and NOx emission rates. The results of this study will be useful for developing NH3 emissions inventories in Guangzhou and other urban areas in China.

Dynamic simulation of a light-weight, low-drag, hybrid-electric sports coupe

The University of Queensland UltraCommuter concept is an ultra- light, low-drag, hybrid-electric sports coupe designed to minimize energy consumption and environmental impact while enhancing the performance, styling, features and convenience that motorists enjoy. This paper presents a detailed simulation study of the vehicle's performance and fuel economy using ADVISOR, including a detailed description of the component models and parameters assumed. Results from the study include predictions of a 0-100 kph acceleration time of ≺9s, and top speed of 170 kph, an electrical energy consumption of ≺67 Wh/km in ZEV mode and a petrol-equivalent fuel consumption of ≺2.5 L/100 km in charge-sustaining HEV mode. Overall, the results of the ADVISOR modelling confirm the UltraCommuter's potential to achieve high performance with high efficiency, and the authors look forward to a confirmation of these estimates following completion of the vehicle.

Living in a broken world : how young children's well-being is supported through playing out their earthquake experiences

The therapeutic value of play can be shown in spontaneous play situations following children’s experiences of traumatic events. Following the events of the Christchurch earthquakes in New Zealand in 2010 and 2011, an investigation was conducted of how children used the earthquake event as a catalyst in pretend play with peers and in discussions with teachers. Supporting children’s well-being is a focus area in New Zealand early childhood education as it is a strand of the national curriculum, Te Whāriki (Ministry of Education [MoE], 1996). In this article, children are observed engaging in pretend play episodes and with Learning Story books to explore personal reflections of the earthquake, prompting the children to make reference to things being ‘broken’ and needing 'fixing.' Analysis shows how the content of the pretend play experiences helped the children to come to terms with their experiences. Affording children time and interactional opportunities to play out and discuss traumatic experiences contributes to the psychological well-being of participants following a traumatic event.

Graphene-based supercapacitor with carbon nanotube film as highly efficient current collector

Flexible graphene-based thin film supercapacitors were made using carbon nanotube (CNT) films as current collectors and graphene films as electrodes. The graphene sheets were produced by simple electrochemical exfoliation, while the graphene films with controlled thickness were prepared by vacuum filtration. The solid-state supercapacitor was made by using two graphene/CNT films on plastic substrates to sandwich a thin layer of gelled electrolyte. We found that the thin graphene film with thickness <1 μm can greatly increase the capacitance. Using only CNT films as electrodes, the device exhibited a capacitance as low as ~0.4 mF cm−2, whereas by adding a 360 nm thick graphene film to the CNT electrodes led to a ~4.3 mF cm−2 capacitance. We experimentally demonstrated that the conductive CNT film is equivalent to gold as a current collector while it provides a stronger binding force to the graphene film. Combining the high capacitance of the thin graphene film and the high conductivity of the CNT film, our devices exhibited high energy density (8–14 Wh kg−1) and power density (250–450 kW kg−1).

Comparison of measured sleeping metabolic rate and predicted basal metabolic rate during the first year of life : evidence of a bias changing with increasing metabolic rate

Objective: To compare measurements of sleeping metabolic rate (SMR) in infancy with predicted basal metabolic rate (BMR) estimated by the equations of Schofield. Methods: Some 104 serial measurements of SMR by indirect calorimetry were performed in 43 healthy infants at 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of age. Predicted BMR was calculated using the weight only (BMR-wo) and weight and height (BMR-wh) equations of Schofield for 0-3-y-olds. Measured SMR values were compared with both predictive values by means of the Bland-Altman statistical test. Results: The mean measured SMR was 1.48 MJ/day. The mean predicted BMR values were 1.66 and 1.47 MJ/day for the weight only and weight and height equations, respectively. The Bland-Altman analysis showed that BMR-wo equation on average overestimated SMR by 0.18 MJ/day (11%) and the BMR-wh equation underestimated SMR by 0.01 MJ/day (1%). However the 95% limits of agreement were wide: -0.64 to + 0.28 MJ/day (28%) for the former equation and -0.39 to + 0.41 MJ/day (27%) for the latter equation. Moreover there was a significant correlation between the mean of the measured and predicted metabolic rate and the difference between them. Conclusions: The wide variation seen in the difference between measured and predicted metabolic rate and the bias probably with age indicates there is a need to measure actual metabolic rate for individual clinical care in this age group.