The impact of taxes on optimal portfolio choice : an Australian study

Taxes are an important component of investing that is commonly overlooked in both the literature and in practice. For example, many understand that taxes will reduce an investment’s return, but less understood is the risk-sharing nature of taxes that also reduces the investment’s risk. This thesis examines how taxes affect the optimal asset allocation and asset location decision in an Australian environment. It advances the model of Horan & Al Zaman (2008), improving the method by which the present value of tax liabilities are calculated, by using an after-tax risk-free discount rate, and incorporating any new or reduced tax liabilities generated into its expected risk and return estimates. The asset allocation problem is examined for a range of different scenarios using Australian parameters, including different risk aversion levels, personal marginal tax rates, investment horizons, borrowing premiums, high or low inflation environments, and different starting cost bases. The findings support the Horan & Al Zaman (2008) conclusion that equities should be held in the taxable account. In fact, these findings are strengthened with most of the efficient frontier maximising equity holdings in the taxable account instead of only half. Furthermore, these findings transfer to the Australian case, where it is found that taxed Australian investors should always invest into equities first through the taxable account before investing in super. However, untaxed Australian investors should invest their equity first through superannuation. With borrowings allowed in the taxable account (no borrowing premium), Australian taxed investors should hold 100% of the superannuation account in the risk-free asset, while undertaking leverage in the taxable account to achieve the desired risk-return. Introducing a borrowing premium decreases the likelihood of holding 100% of super in the risk-free asset for taxable investors. The findings also suggest that the higher the marginal tax rate, the higher the borrowing premium in order to overcome this effect. Finally, as the investor’s marginal tax rate increases, the overall allocation to equities should increase due to the increased risk and return sharing caused by taxation, and in order to achieve the same risk/return level as the lower taxation level, the investor must take on more equity exposure. The investment horizon has a minimal impact on the optimal allocation decision in the absence of factors such as mean reversion and human capital.

What drives the commodity price beta of oil industry stocks

We test theoretical drivers of the oil price beta of oil industry stocks. The strongest statistical and economic support comes for market conditions-type variables as the prime drivers: namely, oil price (+), bond rate (+), volatility of oil returns (−) and cost of carry (+). Though statistically significant, exogenous firm characteristics and oil firms' financing decisions have less compelling economic significance. There is weaker support for the prediction that financial risk management reduces the exposure of oil stocks to crude oil price variation. Finally, extended modelling shows that mean reversion in oil prices also helps explain cross-sectional variation in the oil beta.

New insights into appetite, inflammation and the use of fish oil in hemodialysis patients

Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is commonly seen in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The condition is characterised by chronic, systemic low-grade inflammation which affects nutritional status by a variety of mechanisms including reducing appetite and food intake and increasing muscle catabolism. PEW is linked with co-morbidities such as cardiovascular disease, and is associated with lower quality of life, increased hospitalisations and a 6-fold increase in risk of death1. Significant gender differences have been found in the severity and effects of several markers of PEW. There have been limited studies testing the ability of anti-inflammatory agents or nutritional interventions to reduce the effects of PEW in dialysis patients. This thesis makes a significant contribution to the understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It advances understanding of measurement techniques for two of the key components, appetite and inflammation, and explores the effect of fish oil, an anti-inflammatory agent, on markers of PEW in dialysis patients. The first part of the thesis consists of two methodological studies conducted using baseline data. The first study aims to validate retrospective ratings of hunger, desire to eat and fullness on visual analog scales (VAS) (paper and pen and electronic) as a new method of measuring appetite in dialysis patients. The second methodological study aims to assess the ability of a variety of methods available in routine practice to detect the presence of inflammation. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the effect of 12 weeks supplementation with 2g per day of Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA), a longchain fatty acid found in fish oil, on markers of PEW. A combination of biomarkers and psychomarkers of appetite and inflammation are the main outcomes being explored, with nutritional status, dietary intake and quality of life included as secondary outcomes. A lead in phase of 3 months prior to baseline was used so that each person acts as their own historical control. The study also examines whether there are gender differences in response to the treatment. Being an exploratory study, an important part of the work is to test the feasibility of the intervention, thus the level of adherence and factors associated with adherence are also presented. The studies were conducted at the hemodialysis unit of the Wesley Hospital. Participants met the following criteria: adult, stage 5 CKD on hemodialysis for at least 3 months, not expected to receive a transplant or switch to another dialysis modality during the study, absence of intellectual impairment or mental illness impairing ability to follow instructions or complete the intervention. A range of intermediate, clinical and patient-centred outcome measures were collected at baseline and 12 weeks. Inflammation was measured using five biomarkers: c-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL6), intercellular adhesion molecule (sICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion molecule (sVCAM-1) and white cell count (WCC). Subjective appetite was measured using the first question from the Appetite and Dietary Assessment (ADAT) tool and VAS for measurements of hunger, desire to eat and fullness. A novel feature of the study was the assessment of the appetite peptides leptin, ghrelin and peptide YY as biomarkers of appetite. Nutritional status/inflammation was assessed using the Malnutrition-Inflammation Score (MIS) and the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Dietary intake was measured using 3-day records. Quality of life was measured using the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Form version 1.3 (KDQOL-SF™ v1.3 © RAND University), which combines the Short-Form 36 (SF36) with a kidney-disease specific module2. A smaller range of these variables was available for analysis during the control phase (CRP, ADAT, dietary intake and nutritional status). Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS version 14 (SPSS Inc, Chicago IL, USA). Analysis of the first part of the thesis involved descriptive and bivariate statistics, as well as Bland-Altman plots to assess agreement between methods, and sensitivity analysis/ROC curves to test the ability of methods to predict the presence of inflammation. The unadjusted (paired ttests) and adjusted (linear mixed model) change over time is presented for the main outcome variables of inflammation and appetite. Results are shown for the whole group followed by analyses according to gender and adherence to treatment. Due to the exploratory nature of the study, trends and clinical significance were considered as important as statistical significance. Twenty-eight patients (mean age 61±17y, 50% male, dialysis vintage 19.5 (4- 101) months) underwent baseline assessment. Seven out of 28 patients (25%) reported sub-optimal appetite (self-reported as fair, poor or very poor) despite all being well nourished (100% SGA A). Using the VAS, ratings of hunger, but not desire to eat or fullness, were significantly (p<0.05) associated with a range of relevant clinical variables including age (r=-0.376), comorbidities (r=-0.380) nutritional status (PG-SGA score, r=-0.451), inflammatory markers (CRP r=-0.383; sICAM-1 r=-0.387) and seven domains of quality of life. Patients expressed a preference for the paper and pen method of administering VAS. None of the tools (appetite, MIS, PG-SGA, albumin or iron) showed an acceptable ability to detect patients who are inflamed. It is recommended that CRP should be tested more frequently as a matter of course rather than seeking alternative methods of measuring inflammation. 27 patients completed the 12 week intervention. 20 patients were considered adherent based on changes in % plasma EPA, which rose from 1.3 (0.94)% to 5.2 (1.1)%, p<0.001, in this group. The major barriers to adherence were forgetting to take the tablets as well as their size. At 12 weeks, inflammatory markers remained steady apart from the white cell count which decreased (7.6(2.5) vs 7.0(2.2) x109/L, p=0.058) and sVCAM-1 which increased (1685(654) vs 2249(925) ng/mL, p=0.001). Subjective appetite using VAS increased (51mm to 57mm, +12%) and there was a trend towards reduction in peptide YY (660(31) vs 600(30) pg/mL, p=0.078). There were some gender differences apparent, with the following adjusted change between baseline and week 12: CRP (males -3% vs females +17%, p=0.19), IL6 (males +17% vs females +48%, p=0.77), sICAM-1 (males -5% vs females +11%, p=0.07), sVCAM-1 (males +54% vs females +19%, p=0.08) and hunger ratings (males 20% vs females -5%, p=0.18). On balance, males experienced a maintainence or reduction in three inflammatory markers and an improvement in hunger ratings, and therefore appeared to have responded better to the intervention. Compared to those who didn’t adhere, adherent patients maintained weight (mean(SE) change: +0.5(1.6) vs - 0.8(1.2) kg, p=0.052) and fat-free mass (-0.1 (1.6) vs -1.8 (1.8) kg, p=0.045). There was no difference in change between the intervention and control phase for CRP, appetite, nutritional status or dietary intake. The thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base for understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It has advanced knowledge of methods of assessing inflammation and appetite. Retrospective ratings of hunger on a VAS appear to be a valid method of assessing appetite although samples which include patients with very poor appetite are required to confirm this. Supplementation with fish oil appeared to improve subjective appetite and dampen the inflammatory response. The effectiveness of the intervention is influenced by gender and adherence. Males appear to be more responsive to the primary outcome variables than females, and the quality of response is improved with better adherence. These results provide evidence to support future interventions aimed at reducing the effects of PEW in dialysis patients.

Secondary curve behaviour in Lenke IC class adolescent idiopathic scoliosis following video assisted thoracoscopic spinal fusion

Introduction. Ideally after selective thoracic fusion for Lenke Class IC (i.e. major thoracic / secondary lumbar) curves, the lumbar spine will spontaneously accommodate to the corrected position of the thoracic curve, thereby achieving a balanced spine, avoiding the need for fusion of lumbar spinal segments1. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the behaviour of the lumbar curve in Lenke IC class adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) following video-assisted thoracoscopic spinal fusion and instrumentation (VATS) of the major thoracic curve. Methods. A retrospective review of 22 consecutive patients with AIS who underwent VATS by a single surgeon was conducted. The results were compared to published literature examining the behaviour of the secondary lumbar curve where other surgical approaches were employed. Results. Twenty-two patients (all female) with AIS underwent VATS. All major thoracic curves were right convex. The average age at surgery was 14 years (range 10 to 22 years). On average 6.7 levels (6 to 8) were instrumented. The mean follow-up was 25.1 months (6 to 36). The pre-operative major thoracic Cobb angle mean was 53.8° (40° to 75°). The pre-operative secondary lumbar Cobb angle mean was 43.9° (34° to 55°). On bending radiographs, the secondary curve corrected to 11.3° (0° to 35°). The rib hump mean measurement was 15.0° (7° to 21°). At latest follow-up the major thoracic Cobb angle measured on average 27.2° (20° to 41°) (p<0.001 – univariate ANOVA) and the mean secondary lumbar curve was 27.3° (15° to 42°) (p<0.001). This represented an uninstrumented secondary curve correction factor of 37.8%. The mean rib hump measured was 6.5° (2° to 15°) (p<0.001). The results above were comparable to published series when open surgery was performed. Discussion. VATS is an effective method of correcting major thoracic curves with secondary lumbar curves. The behaviour of the secondary lumbar curve is consistent with published series when open surgery, both anterior and posterior, is performed.

Upper-body morbidity following breast cancer treatment is common, may persist longer-term and adversely influences quality of life

Background: Impairments in upper-body function (UBF) are common following breast cancer. However, the relationship between arm morbidity and quality of life (QoL) remains unclear. This investigation uses longitudinal data to describe UBF in a population-based sample of women with breast cancer and examines its relationship with QoL. ---------- Methods: Australian women (n = 287) with unilateral breast cancer were assessed at three-monthly intervals, from six- to 18-months post-surgery (PS). Strength, endurance and flexibility were used to assess objective UBF, while the Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire and the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy- Breast questionnaire were used to assess self-reported UBF and QoL, respectively. ---------- Results: Although mean UBF improved over time, up to 41% of women revealed declines in UBF between sixand 18-months PS. Older age, lower socioeconomic position, treatment on the dominant side, mastectomy, more extensive lymph node removal and having lymphoedema each increased odds of declines in UBF by at least twofold (p < 0.05). Lower baseline and declines in perceived UBF between six- and 18-months PS were each associated with poorer QoL at 18-months PS (p < 0.05). ---------- Conclusions: Significant upper-body morbidity is experienced by many following breast cancer treatment, persisting longer term, and adversely influencing the QoL of breast cancer survivors.

Children’s food and activity patterns following a six-month child weight management program

Objective To describe the impact of a parent-led, family focused child weight management program on the food intake and activity patterns of pre-pubertal children. Methods n assessor-blinded, randomized controlled trial involving 111 (64% female) overweight, pre-pubertal children 6 to 9 years of age randomly assigned to parenting-skills training plus intensive lifestyle education, parenting-skills training alone, or a 12-month wait-listed control. Study outcomes were assessed at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. This paper presents data on food intake assessed via a validated 54-item parent completed dietary questionnaire and activity behaviours assessed via a parent-report 20-item activity questionnaire. Results Intake of energy-dense nutrient poor foods was lower in both intervention groups at 6 months (mean difference, P+DA -1.5 serves [CI -2.0;-1.0]; P -1.0 serves [-2.0;-0.5]) and 12 months (mean difference P+DA -1.0 serves [CI -2.0;-0.5]; P -1.0 serves [-1.5; 0.0]) compared to baseline. Intake of vegetables, fruit, breads and cereals, meat and alternatives and dairy foods remained unchanged. Regardless of study group there were significant reductions over time in the reported time spent engaged in small screen activities and an increase in the time reported spent in active play. Conclusion Child weight management intervention that promotes food intake in line with national dietary guidelines achieves a reduction in children’s intake of energy dense, nutrient poor foods. This was achieved without compromising intake of nutrient-rich food and changes in were maintained even once the intervention ceased.

A pilot study assessing the feasibility of a home-based progressive resistance exercise program and trend toward healing rates for patients with venous leg ulcers

Venous leg ulceration is a serious condition affecting 1 – 3% of the population. Decline in the function of the calf muscle pump is correlated with venous ulceration. Many previous studies have reported an improvement in the function of the calf muscle pump, endurance of the calf muscle and increased range of ankle motion after structured exercise programs. However, there is a paucity of published research that assesses if these improvements result in an improvement in the healing rates of venous ulcers. The primary purpose of this pilot study was to establish the feasibility of a homebased progressive resistance exercise program and examine if there was any clinical significance or trend toward healing. The secondary aims were to examine the benefit of a home-based progressive resistance exercise program on calf muscle pump function and physical parameters. The methodology used was a randomised controlled trial where eleven participants were randomised into an intervention (n = 6) or control group (n = 5). Participants who were randomised to receive a 12-week home-based progressive resistance exercise program were instructed through weekly face-to-face consultations during their wound clinic appointment by the author. Control group participants received standard wound care and compression therapy. Changes in ulcer parameters were measured fortnightly at the clinic (number healed at 12 weeks, percentage change in area and pressure ulcer score healing score). An air plethysmography test was performed at baseline and following the 12 weeks of training to determine changes in calf muscle pump function. Functional measures included maximum number of heel raises (endurance), maximal isometric plantar flexion (strength) and range of ankle motion (ROAM); these tests were conducted at baseline, week 6 and week 12. The sample for the study was drawn from the Princess Alexandra Hospital in Brisbane, Australia. Participants with venous leg ulceration who met the inclusion criteria were recruited. The participants were screened via duplex scanning and ankle brachial pressure index (ABPI) to ensure they did not have any arterial complications. Participants were excluded if there was evidence of cellulitis. Demographic data were obtained from each participant and details regarding medical history, quality of life and geriatric depression scores were collected at baseline. Both the intervention and control group were required to complete a weekly exercise diary to monitor activity levels between groups. To test for the effect of the intervention over time, a repeated measures analysis of variance was conducted on the major outcome variables. Group (intervention versus control) was the between subject factor and time (baseline, week 6, week 12) was the within subject or repeated measures factor. Due to the small sample size, further tests were conducted to check the assumptions of the statistical test to be used. The results showed that Mauchly.s Test, the Sphericity assumptions of repeated measures for ANOVA were met. Further tests of homogeneity of variance assumptions also confirmed that this assumption was met. Data analysis was conducted using the software package SPSS for Windows Release 17.0. The pilot study proved feasible with all of the intervention (n=6) participants continuing with the resistance program for the 12 week duration and no deleterious effects noted. Clinical significance was observed in the intervention group with a 32% greater change in ulcer size (p= 0.26) than the control group, and a 10% (p = 0.74) greater difference between the numbers healed compared to the control group. Statistical significance was observed for the ejection fraction (p = 0.05), residual volume fraction (p = 0.04) and ROAM (p = 0.01), which all improved significantly in the intervention group over time. These results are encouraging, nevertheless, further investigations seem warranted to examine the effect exercise has on the healing rates of venous leg ulcers, with a multistudy site, larger sample size and longer follow up period.

Intermittent access to 20% ethanol induces high ethanol consumption in Long-Evans and Wistar rats

BACKGROUND: There has been some difficulty getting standard laboratory rats to voluntarily consume large amounts of ethanol without the use of initiation procedures. It has previously been shown that standard laboratory rats will voluntarily consume high levels of ethanol if given intermittent-access to 20% ethanol in a 2-bottle-choice setting [Wise, Psychopharmacologia 29 (1973), 203]. In this study, we have further characterized this drinking model. METHODS: Ethanol-naïve Long-Evans rats were given intermittent-access to 20% ethanol (three 24-hour sessions per week). No sucrose fading was needed and water was always available ad libitum. Ethanol consumption, preference, and long-term drinking behaviors were investigated. Furthermore, to pharmacologically validate the intermittent-access 20% ethanol drinking paradigm, the efficacy of acamprosate and naltrexone in decreasing ethanol consumption were compared with those of groups given continuous-access to 10 or 20% ethanol, respectively. Additionally, ethanol consumption was investigated in Wistar and out-bred alcohol preferring (P) rats following intermittent-access to 20% ethanol. RESULTS: The intermittent-access 20% ethanol 2-bottle-choice drinking paradigm led standard laboratory rats to escalate their ethanol intake over the first 5 to 6 drinking sessions, reaching stable baseline consumption of high amounts of ethanol (Long-Evans: 5.1 +/- 0.6; Wistar: 5.8 +/- 0.8 g/kg/24 h, respectively). Furthermore, the cycles of excessive drinking and abstinence led to an increase in ethanol preference and increased efficacy of both acamprosate and naltrexone in Long-Evans rats. P-rats initiate drinking at a higher level than both Long-Evans and Wistar rats using the intermittent-access 20% ethanol paradigm and showed a trend toward a further escalation in ethanol intake over time (mean ethanol intake: 6.3 +/- 0.8 g/kg/24 h). CONCLUSION: Standard laboratory rats will voluntarily consume ethanol using the intermittent-access 20% ethanol drinking paradigm without the use of any initiation procedures. This model promises to be a valuable tool in the alcohol research field.

A fundamental numerical and theoretical study for the vibrational properties of nanowires

Based on the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and the classical Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, a fundamental study of the vibrational performance of the Ag nanowire (NW) is carried out. A comprehensive analysis of the quality (Q)-factor, natural frequency, beat vibration, as well as high vibration mode is presented. Two excitation approaches, i.e., velocity excitation and displacement excitation, have been successfully implemented to achieve the vibration of NWs. Upon these two kinds of excitations, consistent results are obtained, i.e., the increase of the initial excitation amplitude will lead to a decrease to the Q-factor, and moderate plastic deformation could increase the first natural frequency. Meanwhile, the beat vibration driven by a single relatively large excitation or two uniform excitations in both two lateral directions is observed. It is concluded that the nonlinear changing trend of external energy magnitude does not necessarily mean a nonconstant Q-factor. In particular, the first order natural frequency of the Ag NW is observed to decrease with the increase of temperature. Furthermore, comparing with the predictions by Euler- Bernoulli beam theory, the MD simulation provides a larger and smaller first vibration frequencies for the clamped-clamped and clamped-free thin Ag NWs, respectively. Additionally, for thin NWs, the first order natural frequency exhibits a parabolic relationship with the excitation magnitudes. The frequencies of the higher vibration modes tend to be low in comparison to Euler-Bernoulli beam theory predictions. A combined initial excitation is proposed which is capable to drive the NW under a multi-mode vibration and arrows the coexistence of all the following low vibration modes. This work sheds lights on the better understanding of the mechanical properties of NWs and benefits the increasing utilities of NWs in diverse nano-electronic devices.

Monotonous trend estimation using recursive prony analysis

This paper presents a solution to the problem of estimating the monotonous tendency of a slow-varying oscillating system. A recursive Prony Analysis (PA) scheme is developed which involves obtaining a dynamic model with parameters identified by implementing the forgetting factor recursive least square (FFRLS) method. A box threshold principle is proposed to separate the dominant components, which results in an accurate estimation of the trend of oscillating systems. Performance of the proposed PA is evaluated using real-time measurements when random noise and vibration effects are present. Moreover, the proposed method is used to estimate monotonous tendency of deck displacement to assist in a safe landing of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). It is shown that the proposed method can estimate instantaneous mean deck satisfactorily, making it well suited for integration into ship-UAV approach and landing guidance systems.

Outcomes following operative and non-operative management of humeral midshaft fractures: a prospective, observational cohort study of 47 patients

Background Although the non-operative management of closed humeral midshaft fractures has been advocated for years, the increasing popularity of operative intervention has left the optimal treatment choice unclear. Objective To compare the outcomes of operative and non-operative treatment of traumatic closed humeral midshaft fractures in adult patients. Methods A multicentre prospective comparative cohort study across 20 centres was conducted. Patients with AO type 12 A2, A3 and B2 fractures were treated with a functional brace or a retrograde-inserted unreamed humeral nail. Follow-up measurements were taken at 6, 12 and 52 weeks after the injury. The primary outcome was fracture healing after 1 year. Secondary outcomes included sub-items of the Constant score, general patient satisfaction, complications and cost-effectiveness parameters. Functions of the uninjured extremity were used as reference parameters. Intention-to-treat analysis was applied with the use of t-tests, Fisher’s exact tests, Mann–Whitney U-tests and adjusted analysis of variance (ANOVA). Results Forty-seven patients were included. The patient sample consisted of 23 women and 24 men, with a mean age of 52.7 years (range 17–86 years). Of the 47 cases, 14 were treated non-operatively and 33 operatively. The follow-up rate at 1 year was 81%. After 1 year, 11 fractures (100%) healed in the non-operative group and at least 24 fractures (≥89%) healed in the operative group [1 non-union patient (4%) and no data for 2 patients (7%)]. There were no significant differences in pain, range of motion (ROM) of the shoulder and elbow, and return to work after 6 weeks, 12 weeks and 1 year. Although operatively treated patients showed significantly greater shoulder abduction strength (p = 0.036), elbow flexion strength (p = 0.021), functional hand positioning (p = 0.008) and return to recreational activities (p = 0.043) after 6 weeks, no statistically significant differences existed in any outcome measure at the 1-year follow-up. Conclusions Our findings indicate that the non-operative management of humeral midshaft fractures can be expected to have similar functional outcomes and patient satisfaction at 1 year, despite an early benefit to operative treatment. If no radiological evidence of fracture healing exists in non-operatively treated patients during early follow-up, a switch to surgical treatment results in good functional outcomes and patient satisfaction. Keywords: Humeral shaft fracture, Non-operative treatment, Functional brace, Operative treatment, Unreamed humeral nail (UHN), Prospective, Cohort study

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Corneal changes following near work in myopic anisometropia

PURPOSE: To examine the symmetry of corneal changes following near work in the fellow eyes of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes. METHODS: Thirty-four non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes (minimum 1 D spherical equivalent anisometropia) were recruited. Corneal topography was measured with the Medmont E300 Videokeratoscope before and after a controlled near task. Subjects were positioned to minimise head movements and read continuous text on a computer monitor for 10 minutes at an angle of 25 degrees downward gaze and an accommodation demand of 2.5 D. Measures of palpebral aperture morphology during primary and downward gaze were also obtained using digital photography and analysed with customised software. RESULTS: Significant changes in corneal topography were observed after ten minutes of reading. Localised superior regions of corneal topographical change (a hyperopic shift in corneal power) were typically exhibited in both eyes following the near task. The mean change in the corneal sphero-cylinder was +0.02/-0.11 x 113 and +0.02/-0.06 x 68 for the more and less myopic eyes respectively for a 6 mm corneal diameter. A significantly greater change in corneal astigmatism power vector J0 (a larger increase in against the rule astigmatism) was observed in the more myopic eyes (p < 0.01 for a 6 mm diameter). The more and less myopic eyes exhibited a high degree of interocular symmetry for measures of palpebral aperture morphology during both primary and downward gaze. Changes in corneal power vectors following reading were associated with eyelid position during downward gaze. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in corneal topography observed following a controlled reading task were highly symmetrical between the fellow eyes of myopic anisometropes due to the interocular symmetry of the palpebral aperture. However, the more myopic eye did exhibit a small but significantly greater magnitude of change in corneal astigmatism compared to the less myopic eye following reading. These findings may have implications for understanding the mechanism of development of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropia.

Knee flexor strength and biceps femoris activation deficits following hamstring strain injury

Background: Hamstring strain injuries (HSI) are prevalent in sport and re-injury rates have been high for many years. Maladaptation following HSI are implicated in injury recurrence however nervous system function following HSI has received little attention. Aim: To determine if recreational athletes with a history of unilateral HSI, who have returned to training and competition, will exhibit lower levels of voluntary activation (VA) and median power frequency (MPF) in the previously injured limb compared to the uninjured limb at long muscle lengths. Methods: Twenty-eight recreational athletes were recruited. Of these, 13 athletes had a history of unilateral HSI and 15 had no history of HSI. Following familiarisation, all athletes undertook isokinetic dynamometry testing and surface electromyography assessment of the biceps femoris long head and medial hamstrings during concentric and eccentric contractions at ± 180 and ± 60deg/s. Results: The previously injured limb was weaker at all contraction speeds compared to the uninjured limb (+180deg/s mean difference(MD) = 9.3Nm, p = 0.0036; +60deg/s MD = 14.0Nm, p = 0.0013; -60deg/s MD = 18.3Nm, p = 0.0007; -180deg/s MD = 20.5Nm, p = 0.0007) whilst VA was only lower in the biceps femoris long head during eccentric contractions (-60deg/s MD = 0.13, p = 0.0025; -180deg/s MD = 0.13, p = 0.0003). There were no between limb differences in medial hamstring VA or MPF from either biceps femoris long head or medial hamstrings in the injured group. The uninjured group showed no between limb differences with any of the tested variables. Conclusion: Previously injured hamstrings were weaker than the contralateral uninjured hamstring at all tested speeds and contraction modes. During eccentric contractions biceps femoris long head VA was lower in the previously injured limb suggesting neural control of biceps femoris long head may be altered following HSI. Current rehabilitation practices have been unsuccessful in restoring strength and VA following HSI. Restoration of these markers should be considered when determining the success of rehabilitation from HSI. Further investigations are required to elucidate the full impact of lower levels of biceps femoris long head VA following HSI on rehabilitation outcomes and re-injury risk.