Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Turbulent measurements in a small subtropical estuary with semidiurnal tides

Since predictions of scalar dispersion in small estuaries can rarely be predicted accurately, new field measurements were conducted continuously at relatively high frequency for up to 50 h (per investigation) in a small subtropical estuary with semidiurnal tides. The bulk flow parameters varied in time with periods comparable to tidal cycles and other large-scale processes. The turbulence properties depended upon the instantaneous local flow properties. They were little affected by the flow history, but their structure and temporal variability were influenced by a variety of parameters including the tidal conditions and bathymetry. A striking feature of the data sets was the large fluctuations in all turbulence characteristics during the tidal cycle, and basic differences between neap and spring tide turbulence.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

The times, wines and tides of Tasmania’s Tamar Valley

A travel article about the Tamar Valley, Tasmania. FROM Launceston to Low Head and the Tamar River’s entry into Bass Strait, big tides bring with them an atmosphere of a beach community, but also of a community a little stranded in time. Half the day the locals live by the sea, and for the other half along wide flats. It’s an old rhythm in a place where much has gone unchanged...

Between flagged borders, across gendered lands : the voiceless female space in contemporary representations of Australian beach

International and national representations of the beach perpetuate normative female concepts by maintaining dominant masculine myths, such as that of the heroic lifesaver and tanned sunbaker. Female experiences on the beach are traditionally associated with rhetorics of danger and peril, contrasted to the welcomed and protective gaze of the beach male. Conventional understandings of the gaze promote male surveillance of women, and although some resistance exists, the beach primarily remains a place to observe the female form. This article attempts to explore currents of resistance at the beach through a self-reflexive examination of Schoolies. Although the event is fixed within patriarchal codes and structures, small eddies of resistance exist amongst female participants in light of increasing awareness of masculine hegemony. The Australian beach remains a contested site of multiple constructs of gender and national identity. This article reveals the changing tides of resistance.

Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Turbulence characteristics of a small subtropical estuary during and after some moderate rainfall

In natural estuaries, scalar diffusion and dispersion are driven by turbulence. In the present study, detailed turbulence measurements were conducted in a small subtropical estuary with semi-diurnal tides under neap tide conditions. Three acoustic Doppler velocimeters were installed mid-estuary at fixed locations close together. The units were sampled simultaneously and continuously at relatively high frequency for 50 h. The results illustrated the influence of tidal forcing in the small estuary, although low frequency longitudinal velocity oscillations were observed and believed to be induced by external resonance. The boundary shear stress data implied that the turbulent shear in the lower flow region was one order of magnitude larger than the boundary shear itself. The observation differed from turbulence data in a laboratory channel, but a key feature of natural estuary flow was the significant three dimensional effects associated with strong secondary currents including transverse shear events. The velocity covariances and triple correlations, as well as the backscatter intensity and covariances, were calculated for the entire field study. The covariances of the longitudinal velocity component showed some tidal trend, while the covariances of the transverse horizontal velocity component exhibited trends that reflected changes in secondary current patterns between ebb and flood tides. The triple correlation data tended to show some differences between ebb and flood tides. The acoustic backscatter intensity data were characterised by large fluctuations during the entire study, with dimensionless fluctuation intensity I0b =Ib between 0.46 and 0.54. An unusual feature of the field study was some moderate rainfall prior to and during the first part of the sampling period. Visual observations showed some surface scars and marked channels, while some mini transient fronts were observed.

Turbulence measurements in a small subtropical estuary under king tide conditions

In natural waterways and estuaries, the understanding of turbulent mixing is critical to the knowledge of sediment transport, stormwater runoff during flood events, and release of nutrient-rich wastewater into ecosystems. In the present study, some field measurements were conducted in a small subtropical estuary with micro-tidal range and semi-diurnal tides during king tide conditions: i. e., the tidal range was the largest for both 2009 and 2010. The turbulent velocity measurements were performed continuously at high-frequency (50Hz) for 60 h. Two acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) were sampled simultaneously in the middle estuarine zone, and a third ADV was deployed in the upper estuary for 12 h only. The results provided an unique characterisation of the turbulence in both middle and upper estuarine zones under the king tide conditions. The present observations showed some marked differences between king tide and neap tide conditions. During the king tide conditions, the tidal forcing was the dominant water exchange and circulation mechanism in the estuary. In contrast, the long-term oscillations linked with internal and external resonance played a major role in the turbulent mixing during neap tides. The data set showed further that the upper estuarine zone was drastically less affected by the spring tide range: the flow motion remained slow, but the turbulent velocity data were affected by the propagation of a transient front during the very early flood tide motion at the sampling site. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Turbulent mixing and sediment processes in peri-urban estuariesin South-East Queensland (Australia)

An estuary is formed at the mouth of a river where the tides meet a freshwater flow and it may be classified as a function of the salinity distribution and density stratification. An overview of the broad characteristics of the estuaries of South-East Queensland(Australia) is presented herein, where the small peri-urban estuaries may provide an useful indicator of potential changes which might occur in larger systems with growing urbanisation. Small peri-urban estuaries exhibits many key hydrological features and associated with ecosystem types of larger estuaries, albeit at smaller scales, often with a greater extent of urban development as a proportion of catchment area. We explore the potential for some smaller peri-urban estuaries to be used as natural laboratories to gain some much needed information on the estuarine processes, although any dynamics similarity is presently limited by critical absence of in-depth physical investigation in larger estuarine systems. The absence of the detailed turbulence and sedimentary data hampers the understanding and modelling of the estuarine zones. The interactions between the various stake holders are likely to define the vision for the future of South-East Queensland's peri-urban estuaries. This will require a solid understanding of the bio-physical function and capacity of the peri-urban estuaries. Based upon the knowledge gap, it is recommended that an adaptive trial and error approach be adopted for the future of investigation and management strategies.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Extreme water level exceedance probabilities around Australia

The potential impacts of extreme water level events on our coasts are increasing as populations grow and sea levels rise. To better prepare for the future, coastal engineers and managers need accurate estimates of average exceedance probabilities for extreme water levels. In this paper, we estimate present day probabilities of extreme water levels around the entire coastline of Australia. Tides and storm surges generated by extra-tropical storms were included by creating a 61-year (1949-2009) hindcast of water levels using a high resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model driven with meteorological data from a global reanalysis. Tropical cyclone-induced surges were included through numerical modelling of a database of synthetic tropical cyclones equivalent to 10,000 years of cyclone activity around Australia. Predicted water level data was analysed using extreme value theory to construct return period curves for both the water level hindcast and synthetic tropical cyclone modelling. These return period curves were then combined by taking the highest water level at each return period.

Turbulence measurements in a shallow tidal estuary : analysis based on triple decomposition

In an estuary, mixing and dispersion are the result of the combination of large scale advection and small scale turbulence which are both complex to estimate. A field study was conducted in a small sub-tropical estuary in which high frequency (50 Hz) turbulent data were recorded continuously for about 48 hours. A triple decomposition technique was introduced to isolate the contributions of tides, resonance and turbulence in the flow field. A striking feature of the data set was the slow fluctuations which exhibited large amplitudes up to 50% the tidal amplitude under neap tide conditions. The triple decomposition technique allowed a characterisation of broader temporal scales of high frequency fluctuation data sampled during a number of full tidal cycles.

Turbulence and Mixing in the Environment: Multi-Device Study in a Sub-tropical Estuary

In an estuary, mixing and dispersion result from a combination of large-scale advection and smallscale turbulence, which are complex to estimate. The predictions of scalar transport and mixing are often inferred and rarely accurate, due to inadequate understanding of the contributions of these difference scales to estuarine recirculation. A multi-device field study was conducted in a small sub-tropical estuary under neap tide conditions with near-zero fresh water discharge for about 48 hours. During the study, acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADV) were sampled at high frequency (50 Hz), while an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and global positioning system (GPS) tracked drifters were used to obtain some lower frequency spatial distribution of the flow parameters within the estuary. The velocity measurements were complemented with some continuous measurement of water depth, conductivity, temperature and some other physiochemical parameters. Thorough quality control was carried out by implementation of relevant error removal filters on the individual data set to intercept spurious data. A triple decomposition (TD) technique was introduced to access the contributions of tides, resonance and ‘true’ turbulence in the flow field. The time series of mean flow measurements for both the ADCP and drifter were consistent with those of the mean ADV data when sampled within a similar spatial domain. The tidal scale fluctuation of velocity and water level were used to examine the response of the estuary to tidal inertial current. The channel exhibited a mixed type wave with a typical phase-lag between 0.035π– 0.116π. A striking feature of the ADV velocity data was the slow fluctuations, which exhibited large amplitudes of up to 50% of the tidal amplitude, particularly in slack waters. Such slow fluctuations were simultaneously observed in a number of physiochemical properties of the channel. The ensuing turbulence field showed some degree of anisotropy. For all ADV units, the horizontal turbulence ratio ranged between 0.4 and 0.9, and decreased towards the bed, while the vertical turbulence ratio was on average unity at z = 0.32 m and approximately 0.5 for the upper ADV (z = 0.55 m). The result of the statistical analysis suggested that the ebb phase turbulence field was dominated by eddies that evolved from ejection type process, while that of the flood phase contained mixed eddies with significant amount related to sweep type process. Over 65% of the skewness values fell within the range expected of a finite Gaussian distribution and the bulk of the excess kurtosis values (over 70%) fell within the range of -0.5 and +2. The TD technique described herein allowed the characterisation of a broader temporal scale of fluctuations of the high frequency data sampled within the durations of a few tidal cycles. The study provides characterisation of the ranges of fluctuation required for an accurate modelling of shallow water dispersion and mixing in a sub-tropical estuary.

Memory of past random wave conditions in submarine groundwater discharge

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is an integral part of the hydrological cycle and represents an important aspect of land-ocean interactions. We used a numerical model to simulate flow and salt transport in a nearshore groundwater aquifer under varying wave conditions based on yearlong random wave data sets, including storm surge events. The results showed significant flow asymmetry with rapid response of influxes and retarded response of effluxes across the seabed to the irregular wave conditions. While a storm surge immediately intensified seawater influx to the aquifer, the subsequent return of intruded seawater to the sea, as part of an increased SGD, was gradual. Using functional data analysis, we revealed and quantified retarded, cumulative effects of past wave conditions on SGD including the fresh groundwater and recirculating seawater discharge components. The retardation was characterized well by a gamma distribution function regardless of wave conditions. The relationships between discharge rates and wave parameters were quantifiable by a regression model in a functional form independent of the actual irregular wave conditions. This statistical model provides a useful method for analyzing and predicting SGD from nearshore unconfined aquifers affected by random waves

Reengaging, reenacting and reenvisaging discourses of disaster through public space performance: Austerity, art, and the art of protest

This paper offers a mediation on disaster, recovery, resilience, and restoration of balance, in both a material and a metaphorical sense, when ‘disaster’ befalls not the body politic of the nation but the body personal. In the past few decades, of course, artists, activists and scholars have deliberately tried to avoid describing personal, physical and phenomenological experiences of the disabled body in terms of difficulty and disaster. This has been part of a political move, from a medical model, in which disability, disease and illness are positioned as personal catastrophes, to a social model, in which disability is positioned as a social construct that comes from systems, institutions and infrastructure designed to exclude different bodies. It is a move that is responsible for a certain discomfort people with disabilities, and artists with disabilities, today feel towards performances that deploy disability as a metaphor for disaster, from Hijikata, to Theatre Hora. In the past five years, though, this particular discourse has begun rising again, particularly as people with disabilities fact their own anything but natural disasters as a result of the austerity measures now widespread across the US, UK, Europe and elsewhere. Measures that threaten people’s ability to live, and take part in social and institutional life, in any meaningful way. Measures that, as artist Katherine Araniello notes, also bring additional difficulty, danger, and potential for disaster as they ripple outwards across the tides of familial ties, threatening family, friends, and careers who become bound up in the struggle to do more with less. In this paper, I consider how people with disabilities use performance, particularly public space interventionalist performance, to reengage, renact and reenvisage the discourse of national, economic, environmental or other forms of disaster, the need for austerity, the need to avoid providing people with support for desires and interests as well as basic daily needs, particularly when fraud and corruption is so right, and other such ideas that have become an all too unpleasant reality for many people. Performances, for instance, like Liz Crow’s Bedding Out, where she invited people into her bed – for people with disabilities a symbolic space, which necessarily becomes more a public living room restaurant, office and so forth than a private space when poor mobility means they spend much time it in – to talk about their lives, their difficulties, and dealing with austerity. Or, for instance, like the Bolshy Divas, who mimic public and political policy, reports and advertising paranoia to undermine their discourses about austerity. I examine the effects, politics and ethics of such interventions, including examination of the comparative effect of highly bodied interventions (like Crow’s) and highly disembodied interventions (like the Bolshy Diva’s) in discourses of difficulty, disaster and austerity on a range of target spectator communities.