An empirical investigation of the level effect in Australian interest rates

An extensive literature examines the dynamics of interest rates, with particular attention given to the positive relationship between interest-rate volatility and the level of interest rates—the so-called level effect. This paper examines the interaction between the estimated level effect and competing parameterisations of interest-rate volatility for the Australian yield curve. We adopt a new methodology that estimates elasticity in a multivariate setting that explicitly accommodates the correlations that exist between various yield factors. Results show that significant correlations exist between the residuals of yield factors and that such correlations do indeed impact on model estimates. Within the multivariate setting, the level of the short rate is shown to be a crucial determinant of the conditional volatility of all three yield factors. Measures of model fit suggest that, in addition to the usual level effect, the incorporation of GARCH effects and possible regime shifts is important

Yield-factor volatility models

The term structure of interest rates is often summarized using a handful of yield factors that capture shifts in the shape of the yield curve. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model for volatility dynamics in the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve that simultaneously includes level and GARCH effects along with regime shifts. We show that the level of the short rate is useful in modeling the volatility of the three yield factors and that there are significant GARCH effects present even after including a level effect. Further, we find that allowing for regime shifts in the factor volatilities dramatically improves the model’s fit and strengthens the level effect. We also show that a regime-switching model with level and GARCH effects provides the best out-of-sample forecasting performance of yield volatility. We argue that the auxiliary models often used to estimate term structure models with simulation-based estimation techniques should be consistent with the main features of the yield curve that are identified by our model.

Long-term trends in fine particle number concentrations in the urban atmosphere of Brisbane : the relevance of traffic emissions and new particle formation

The measurement of submicrometre (< 1.0 m) and ultrafine particles (diameter < 0.1 m) number concentration have attracted attention since the last decade because the potential health impacts associated with exposure to these particles can be more significant than those due to exposure to larger particles. At present, ultrafine particles are not regularly monitored and they are yet to be incorporated into air quality monitoring programs. As a result, very few studies have analysed their long-term and spatial variations in ultrafine particle concentration, and none have been in Australia. To address this gap in scientific knowledge, the aim of this research was to investigate the long-term trends and seasonal variations in particle number concentrations in Brisbane, Australia. Data collected over a five-year period were analysed using weighted regression models. Monthly mean concentrations in the morning (6:00-10:00) and the afternoon (16:00-19:00) were plotted against time in months, using the monthly variance as the weights. During the five-year period, submicrometre and ultrafine particle concentrations increased in the morning by 105.7% and 81.5% respectively whereas in the afternoon there was no significant trend. The morning concentrations were associated with fresh traffic emissions and the afternoon concentrations with the background. The statistical tests applied to the seasonal models, on the other hand, indicated that there was no seasonal component. The spatial variation in size distribution in a large urban area was investigated using particle number size distribution data collected at nine different locations during different campaigns. The size distributions were represented by the modal structures and cumulative size distributions. Particle number peaked at around 30 nm, except at an isolated site dominated by diesel trucks, where the particle number peaked at around 60 nm. It was found that ultrafine particles contributed to 82%-90% of the total particle number. At the sites dominated by petrol vehicles, nanoparticles (< 50 nm) contributed 60%-70% of the total particle number, and at the site dominated by diesel trucks they contributed 50%. Although the sampling campaigns took place during different seasons and were of varying duration these variations did not have an effect on the particle size distributions. The results suggested that the distributions were rather affected by differences in traffic composition and distance to the road. To investigate the occurrence of nucleation events, that is, secondary particle formation from gaseous precursors, particle size distribution data collected over a 13 month period during 5 different campaigns were analysed. The study area was a complex urban environment influenced by anthropogenic and natural sources. The study introduced a new application of time series differencing for the identification of nucleation events. To evaluate the conditions favourable to nucleation, the meteorological conditions and gaseous concentrations prior to and during nucleation events were recorded. Gaseous concentrations did not exhibit a clear pattern of change in concentration. It was also found that nucleation was associated with sea breeze and long-range transport. The implications of this finding are that whilst vehicles are the most important source of ultrafine particles, sea breeze and aged gaseous emissions play a more important role in secondary particle formation in the study area.

The effects of habitat fragmentation on the demography and population genetic structure of Uromys Caudimaculatus

Habitat fragmentation can have an impact on a wide variety of biological processes including abundance, life history strategies, mating system, inbreeding and genetic diversity levels of individual species. Although fragmented populations have received much attention, ecological and genetic responses of species to fragmentation have still not been fully resolved. The current study investigated the ecological factors that may influence the demographic and genetic structure of the giant white-tailed rat (Uromys caudimaculatus) within fragmented tropical rainforests. It is the first study to examine relationships between food resources, vegetation attributes and Uromys demography in a quantitative manner. Giant white-tailed rat densities were strongly correlated with specific suites of food resources rather than forest structure or other factors linked to fragmentation (i.e. fragment size). Several demographic parameters including the density of resident adults and juvenile recruitment showed similar patterns. Although data were limited, high quality food resources appear to initiate breeding in female Uromys. Where data were sufficient, influx of juveniles was significantly related to the density of high quality food resources that had fallen in the previous three months. Thus, availability of high quality food resources appear to be more important than either vegetation structure or fragment size in influencing giant white-tailed rat demography. These results support the suggestion that a species’ response to fragmentation can be related to their specific habitat requirements and can vary in response to local ecological conditions. In contrast to demographic data, genetic data revealed a significant negative effect of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity and effective population size in U. caudimaculatus. All three fragments showed lower levels of allelic richness, number of private alleles and expected heterozygosity compared with the unfragmented continuous rainforest site. Populations at all sites were significantly differentiated, suggesting restricted among population gene flow. The combined effects of reduced genetic diversity, lower effective population size and restricted gene flow suggest that long-term viability of small fragmented populations may be at risk, unless effective management is employed in the future. A diverse range of genetic reproductive behaviours and sex-biased dispersal patterns were evident within U. caudimaculatus populations. Genetic paternity analyses revealed that the major mating system in U. caudimaculatus appeared to be polygyny at sites P1, P3 and C1. Evidence of genetic monogamy, however, was also found in the three fragmented sites, and was the dominant mating system in the remaining low density, small fragment (P2). High variability in reproductive skew and reproductive success was also found but was less pronounced when only resident Uromys were considered. Male body condition predicted which males sired offspring, however, neither body condition nor heterozygosity levels were accurate predictors of the number of offspring assigned to individual males or females. Genetic spatial autocorrelation analyses provided evidence for increased philopatry among females at site P1, but increased philopatry among males at site P3. This suggests that male-biased dispersal occurs at site P1 and female-biased dispersal at site P3, implying that in addition to mating systems, Uromys may also be able to adjust their dispersal behaviour to suit local ecological conditions. This study highlights the importance of examining the mechanisms that underlie population-level responses to habitat fragmentation using a combined ecological and genetic approach. The ecological data suggested that habitat quality (i.e. high quality food resources) rather than habitat quantity (i.e. fragment size) was relatively more important in influencing giant white-tailed rat demographics, at least for the populations studied here . Conversely, genetic data showed strong evidence that Uromys populations were affected adversely by habitat fragmentation and that management of isolated populations may be required for long-term viability of populations within isolated rainforest fragments.

Clypeotheca, a new skeletal structure in scleractinian corals : a potential stress indicator

Physiological responses to environmental stress are increasingly well studied in scleractinian corals. This work reports a new stress-related skeletal structure we term clypeotheca. Clypeotheca was observed in several livecollected common reef-building coral genera and a two to three kya subfossil specimen from Heron Reef, Great Barrier Reef and consists of an epitheca-like skeletal wall that seals over the surface of parts of the corallum in areas of stress or damage. It appears to form from a coordinated process wherein neighboring polyps and adjoining coenosarc seal themselves off from the surrounding environment as they contract and die. Clypeotheca forms from inward skeletal centripetal growth at the edges of corallites and by the merging of flange-like outgrowths that surround individual spines over the surface of the coenosteum. Microstructurally, the merged flanges are similar to upsidedown dissepiments and true epitheca. Clypeotheca is interpreted primarily as a response to stress that may help protect the colony from invasion of unhealthy tissues by parasites or disease by retracting tissues in areas that have become unhealthy for the polyps. Identification of skeletal responses of corals to environmental stress may enable the frequency of certain types of environmental stress to be documented in past environments. Such data may be important for understanding the nature of reef dynamics through intervals of climate change and for monitoring the effects of possible anthropogenic stress in modern coral reef habitats.

A collagen network phase improves cell seeding of open-pore structure scaffolds under perfusion

Scaffolds with open-pore morphologies offer several advantages in cell-based tissue engineering, but their use is limited by a low cell seeding efficiency. We hypothesized that inclusion of a collagen network as filling material within the open-pore architecture of polycaprolactone-tricalcium phosphate (PCL-TCP) scaffolds increases human bone marrow stromal cells (hBMSC) seeding efficiency under perfusion and in vivo osteogenic capacity of the resulting constructs. PCL-TCP scaffolds, rapid prototyped with a honeycomb-like architecture, were filled with a collagen gel and subsequently lyophilized, with or without final crosslinking. Collagen-free scaffolds were used as controls. The seeding efficiency was assessed after overnight perfusion of expanded hBMSC directly through the scaffold pores using a bioreactor system. By seeding and culturing freshly harvested hBMSC under perfusion for 3 weeks, the osteogenic capacity of generated constructs was tested by ectopic implantation in nude mice. The presence of the collagen network, independently of the crosslinking process, significantly increased the cell seeding efficiency (2.5-fold), and reduced the loss of clonogenic cells in the supernatant. Although no implant generated frank bone tissue, possibly due to the mineral distribution within the scaffold polymer phase, the presence of a non crosslinked collagen phase led to in vivo formation of scattered structures of dense osteoids. Our findings verify that the inclusion of a collagen network within open morphology porous scaffolds improves cell retention under perfusion seeding. In the context of cell-based therapies, collagen-filled porous scaffolds are expected to yield superior cell utilization, and could be combined with perfusion-based bioreactor devices to streamline graft manufacture.

Three-dimensional geological modelling and multivariate statistical analysis of water chemistry data to analyse and visualise aquifer structure and groundwater composition in the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand

Concerns regarding groundwater contamination with nitrate and the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources have prompted the development of a multi-layered three dimensional (3D) geological model to characterise the aquifer geometry of the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand. The 3D geological model which consists of eight litho-stratigraphic units has been subsequently used to synthesise hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data for different aquifers in an approach that aims to demonstrate how integration of water chemistry data within the physical framework of a 3D geological model can help to better understand and conceptualise groundwater systems in complex geological settings. Multivariate statistical techniques(e.g. Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis) were applied to groundwater chemistry data to identify hydrochemical facies which are characteristic of distinct evolutionary pathways and a common hydrologic history of groundwaters. Principal Component Analysis on hydrochemical data demonstrated that natural water-rock interactions, redox potential and human agricultural impact are the key controls of groundwater quality in the Wairau Plain. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis revealed distinct hydrochemical water quality groups in the Wairau Plain groundwater system. Visualisation of the results of the multivariate statistical analyses and distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations in the context of aquifer lithology highlighted the link between groundwater chemistry and the lithology of host aquifers. The methodology followed in this study can be applied in a variety of hydrogeological settings to synthesise geological, hydrogeological and hydrochemical data and present them in a format readily understood by a wide range of stakeholders. This enables a more efficient communication of the results of scientific studies to the wider community.

Dynamic modelling of long-term care decisions

This paper describes and analyzes research on the dynamics of long-term care and the policy relevance of identifying the sources of persistence in caregiving arrangements (including the effect of dynamics on parameter estimates, implications for family welfare, parent welfare, child welfare, and cost of government programs). We discuss sources and causes of observed persistence in caregiving arrangements including inertia/state dependence (confounded by unobserved heterogeneity) and costs of changing caregivers. We comment on causes of dynamics including learning/human capital accumulation; burnout; and game-playing. We suggest how to deal with endogenous geography; dynamics in discrete and continuous choices; and equilibrium issues (multiple equilibria, dynamic equilibria). We also present an overview of commonly used longitudinal data sets and evaluate their relative advantages/disadvantages. We also discuss other data issues related to noisy measures of wealth and family structure. Finally, we suggest some methods to handle econometric problems such as endogeneous geography. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Double-strand breaks and the concept of short- and long-term epigenetic memory

Double-strand breaks represent an extremely cytolethal form of DNA damage and thus pose a serious threat to the preservation of genetic and epigenetic information. Though it is well-known that double-strand breaks such as those generated by ionising radiation are among the principal causative factors behind mutations, chromosomal aberrations, genetic instability and carcino-genesis, significantly less is known about the epigenetic consequences of double-strand break formation and repair for carcinogenesis. Double-strand break repair is a highly coordinated process that requires the unravelling of the compacted chromatin structure to facilitate repair machinery access and then restoration of the original undamaged chromatin state. Recent experimental findings have pointed to a potential mechanism for double-strand break-induced epigenetic silencing. This review will discuss some of the key epigenetic regulatory processes involved in double-strand break (DSB) repair and how incomplete or incorrect restoration of chromatin structure can leave a DSB-induced epigenetic memory of damage with potentially pathological repercussions

Development of a cost-effective and flexible vibration DAQ system for long-term continuous structural health monitoring

In the structural health monitoring (SHM) field, long-term continuous vibration-based monitoring is becoming increasingly popular as this could keep track of the health status of structures during their service lives. However, implementing such a system is not always feasible due to on-going conflicts between budget constraints and the need of sophisticated systems to monitor real-world structures under their demanding in-service conditions. To address this problem, this paper presents a comprehensive development of a cost-effective and flexible vibration DAQ system for long-term continuous SHM of a newly constructed institutional complex with a special focus on the main building. First, selections of sensor type and sensor positions are scrutinized to overcome adversities such as low-frequency and low-level vibration measurements. In order to economically tackle the sparse measurement problem, a cost-optimized Ethernet-based peripheral DAQ model is first adopted to form the system skeleton. A combination of a high-resolution timing coordination method based on the TCP/IP command communication medium and a periodic system resynchronization strategy is then proposed to synchronize data from multiple distributed DAQ units. The results of both experimental evaluations and experimental–numerical verifications show that the proposed DAQ system in general and the data synchronization solution in particular work well and they can provide a promising cost-effective and flexible alternative for use in real-world SHM projects. Finally, the paper demonstrates simple but effective ways to make use of the developed monitoring system for long-term continuous structural health evaluation as well as to use the instrumented building herein as a multi-purpose benchmark structure for studying not only practical SHM problems but also synchronization related issues.

Working-correlation-structure identification in generalized estimating equations

Selecting an appropriate working correlation structure is pertinent to clustered data analysis using generalized estimating equations (GEE) because an inappropriate choice will lead to inefficient parameter estimation. We investigate the well-known criterion of QIC for selecting a working correlation Structure. and have found that performance of the QIC is deteriorated by a term that is theoretically independent of the correlation structures but has to be estimated with an error. This leads LIS to propose a correlation information criterion (CIC) that substantially improves the QIC performance. Extensive simulation studies indicate that the CIC has remarkable improvement in selecting the correct correlation structures. We also illustrate our findings using a data set from the Madras Longitudinal Schizophrenia Study.

New dimeric supramolecular structure of mixed (phthalocyaninato)(porphyrinato)-europium(III) sandwiches : preparation and spectroscopic characteristics

The mixed double-decker Eu\[Pc(15C5)4](TPP) (1) was obtained by base-catalysed tetramerisation of 4,5-dicyanobenzo-15-crown-5 using the half-sandwich complex Eu(TPP)(acac) (acac = acetylacetonate), generated in situ, as the template. For comparative studies, the mixed triple-decker complexes Eu2\[Pc(15C5)4](TPP)2 (2) and Eu2\[Pc(15C5)4]2(TPP) (3) were also synthesised by the raise-by-one-story method. These mixed ring sandwich complexes were characterised by various spectroscopic methods. Up to four one-electron oxidations and two one-electron reductions were revealed by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV). As shown by electronic absorption and infrared spectroscopy, supramolecular dimers (SM1 and SM3) were formed from the corresponding double-decker 1 and triple-decker 3 in the presence of potassium ions in MeOH/CHCl3.